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The Decline and Fall of the American Empire Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: States Struggle For Money, Political Will To Fix America

Postby Plantagenet » Sat 17 Sep 2011, 22:22:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote(' ', ' ')America's roads, highways, bridges and transit systems are falling apart....


What in heck did Obama do with the trillion dollars in his stimulus he said was for fixing roads, highways, bridges and transit systems?

Surely Obama didn't waste the whole trillion dollars on frauds like Solyndra...did he?
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Re: States Struggle For Money, Political Will To Fix America

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 18 Sep 2011, 00:45:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote(' ', ' ')America's roads, highways, bridges and transit systems are falling apart....


What in heck did Obama do with the trillion dollars in his stimulus he said was for fixing roads, highways, bridges and transit systems?

Surely Obama didn't waste the whole trillion dollars on frauds like Solyndra...did he?
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No, he wasted a lot on bailing out failed messes like GM, on "green jobs" like energy efficiency measures for houses that cost a zillion dollars a house, etc.
Oh yeah, he also threw lots of money and support at that bastion of productivity -- unions. :roll:

Is everything fixed yet? No? Oh, well, we can be SO confident that another half $trillion or so in what is so LAUGHABLY called a "jobs" program will work so much better.

With policies like these, the dems make the GOP and their war machine look GOOD.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: States Struggle For Money, Political Will To Fix America

Postby Keith_McClary » Sun 18 Sep 2011, 01:33:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'N')o, he wasted a lot on bailing out failed messes like GM.
US and Canadian taxpayers are still paying for warranty repairs on vehicles sold by "old" GM and Chrysler.
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Re: States Struggle For Money, Political Will To Fix America

Postby Keith_McClary » Sun 18 Sep 2011, 01:51:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('swingbolder', 'T')he road leading to the dam cannot accommodate the torrent of tourists
who can still afford luxury travel.
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Re: States Struggle For Money, Political Will To Fix America

Postby Pops » Sun 18 Sep 2011, 07:52:31

What is interesting to me (it certainly isn't the continual partisan rants that are really starting to be irritating) is how we've seemed to improve the efficiency and engineering of everything except infrastructure.

Is that because what passes for improvement in other products - say, talking fuel gauges in cars or more cycles on washing machines or higher resolution images on telephones aren't really improvements at all? Or engineering that makes consumer items and even infrastructure cheap isn't necessarily the best investment?

I can't remember the article but I read recently that we're reaching the end of the expected 100 year life of some infrastructure from the 1800's like water piping, the 50 year lifespan of some 50's facilities and the 30 year life of some 70's installations - anyone notice the trend?

What this tells me is very simple, if you intend to be around for any length of time you should start thinking about building your own infrastructure.
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Re: States Struggle For Money, Political Will To Fix America

Postby Cloud9 » Sun 18 Sep 2011, 08:01:46

It costs about $500 to sink a two inch well in the sugar sand state. For those of you with that option. You might consider it while things are still up and running.
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Re: States Struggle For Money, Political Will To Fix America

Postby Fiddlerdave » Sun 18 Sep 2011, 15:30:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('swingbolder', '
')
The road leading to the dam cannot accommodate the torrent of tourists and spills them into the overwhelmed little town of Boulder City. Nevada lawmakers are trying to find a private company to build a $400 million bypass because the state can't afford it.
I never thought about the Peak Oil scenario where the economic effect of high energy costs meant that the roads, rather than being empty of cars because no one could afford to drive cars, we first can no longer afford to build the ROADS for the remaining cars to drive on!
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Re: States Struggle For Money, Political Will To Fix America

Postby Ibon » Sun 18 Sep 2011, 15:40:53

In light of this thread check out the main story on the news feed here at peakoil.com

http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/a-marsh ... -in-china/

To all you students out there consider majoring in electrical engineering with a minor in chinese language and I can assure you will have a job when you graduate.
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Re: States Struggle For Money, Political Will To Fix America

Postby rangerone314 » Sun 18 Sep 2011, 16:19:04

America's done, stick a fork in it.

The future belongs to China... a future of maybe 10 or 20 years, and then THEY will most likely implode too, along with the rest of Industrial Civilization.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

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Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: States Struggle For Money, Political Will To Fix America

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 18 Sep 2011, 16:35:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')hat is interesting to me (it certainly isn't the continual partisan rants that are really starting to be irritating) is how we've seemed to improve the efficiency and engineering of everything except infrastructure.

Is that because what passes for improvement in other products - say, talking fuel gauges in cars or more cycles on washing machines or higher resolution images on telephones aren't really improvements at all? Or engineering that makes consumer items and even infrastructure cheap isn't necessarily the best investment?

Good points.

1). Everything seems geared towards short term thinking (more profitable, I suppose).

2). So, "improvements" like the complexity examples you cite that make products more CONVENIENT makes the reliablity problem WORSE and likely uses more resources as well (even while it sells more of product X -- (for a higher profit per unit AND more units)).

3). It may be that higher complexity is inherently less reliable. Water pipes are underground, so not terribly exposed to weather. Interstate highway systems ARE exposed to weather, and the frightening decay of our bridges is largely a result of that. Later systems add hybrid materials, electronics, moving parts, etc. -- all clearly detrimental to long term reliability.

4). One interesting thing my dad pointed out when I was a kid is that 50 years ago, writers like SF's Heinlein were predicting massive improvements to the productivity, cost, and quality of housing construction. Well, that hasn't happened. Houses are larger and have more gizmos. But most engineers (and real world experience) tell us that they are less durable due to cost cutting on the "bones" -- and the core construction hasn't really improved markedly. (2x4's, etc. and cement and brick veneer, for example).

5). Cars are more reliable in their early to mid life (electronic fuel injection, for example), and FINALLY via hybrids we are seeing the potential for massive fuel economy gains (resources are of course a huge issue there) -- but the electronics can fail massively at any time, and can be horribly expensive to fix. Modern automatic transmissions can easily cost more than the entire engine, for example.

...

So, looking LONG term, this is probbly not good investment. But with BAU growth the norm, the vast majority of people seemingly unable to think long term for matters as simple and obvious as retirement -- I suppose this isn't really surprising, at least in a democracy where politicians feel they must pander to large swaths of voter wants.

I don't see a good or easy answer. I also don't see any positive trends in overall serious productive debate by the powers that be (of any party or persuasion) to FIND good answers (which is frightening).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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America's Descent into Poverty

Postby Loki » Thu 30 Aug 2012, 21:59:25

An interesting piece by Paul Craig Roberts on the third worldization of America.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he United States has collapsed economically, socially, politically, legally, constitutionally, and environmentally. The country that exists today is not even a shell of the country into which I was born....

Economically, America has descended into poverty. As Peter Edelman says, “Low-wage work is pandemic.” Today in “freedom and democracy” America, “the world’s only superpower,” one fourth of the work force is employed in jobs that pay less than $22,000, the poverty line for a family of four. ...

In my opinion as an economist, the official poverty line is long out of date. The prospect of three people living on $19,000 per year is farfetched. Considering the prices of rent, electricity, water, bread and fast food, one person cannot live in the US on $6,333.33 per year. In Thailand, perhaps, until the dollar collapses, it might be done, but not in the US.

As Dan Ariely (Duke University) and Mike Norton (Harvard University) have shown empirically, 40% of the US population, the 40% less well off, own 0.3%, that is, three-tenths of one percent, of America’s personal wealth. Who owns the other 99.7%? The top 20% have 84% of the country’s wealth. Those Americans in the third and fourth quintiles–essentially America’s middle class–have only 15.7% of the nation’s wealth. Such an unequal distribution of income is unprecedented in the economically developed world.

In my day, confronted with such disparity in the distribution of income and wealth, a disparity that obviously poses a dramatic problem for economic policy, political stability, and the macro management of the economy, Democrats would have demanded corrections, and Republicans would have reluctantly agreed.

But not today. Both political parties whore for money....

The concentration of wealth and power in the US today is far beyond anything my graduate economic professors could image in the 1960s. At four of the world’s best universities that I attended, the opinion was that competition in the free market would prevent great disparities in the distribution of income and wealth. As I was to learn, this belief was based on an ideology, not on reality.

Congress, acting on this erroneous belief in free market perfection, deregulated the US economy in order to create a free market. The immediate consequence was resort to every previous illegal action to monopolize, to commit financial and other fraud, to destroy the productive basis of American consumer incomes, and to redirect income and wealth to the one percent.
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Re: America's Descent into Poverty

Postby JohnRM » Thu 30 Aug 2012, 23:10:12

To be fair, when people no longer have the purchasing power to consume like they did, the effect will trickle up and many of these corporations will be out of business. That almost happened in 2009-10, but the government bailed them out. Can't do that forever. At some point, the wealth has to flow downward, again, or the economy will cease to function.

I personally have the purchasing power, as a member of the middle class, but I refuse to comply with the business-as-usual mentality and am instead investing in resilience to the next economic shock, which I cannot imagine is very far off, unless hiring picks up. Regardless, the best that you can hope for is economic stagnation/meager growth.
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Re: America's Descent into Poverty

Postby dissident » Thu 30 Aug 2012, 23:48:36

Aside from the banks the bailing out was of GM and not much more. The trick is that GM still relies on the US and European market but other corporations can live off the hundreds of millions of new consumers showing up in China, India and elsewhere in the developing world. So if they lose one American consumer for every two or three they gain globally they win. This is the global new world order and the corporate elites could care less about social stratification and shrinking of the middle class in the 1st world.
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Re: America's Descent into Poverty

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 31 Aug 2012, 04:15:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnRM', 'A')t some point, the wealth has to flow downward, again, or the economy will cease to function.

But "wealth" is no longer there, so nothing will flow downward.
Meaningless records of electronic money on accounts of 1% may well stay for some time but there is not much what you can purchase with these without inflationary dead end.
Your wealth is long ago spent (consumed) and not much is left.
Hence welcome in Third World.
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Re: America's Descent into Poverty

Postby Pops » Fri 31 Aug 2012, 14:22:42

After industrialization came unionization. But then came the first Red Scare - basically the 1% of the day were afraid of a revolution. The big inequality of the '20s followed by the depression and New Deal, which I think was not just a response to the depression also an attempt to placate the worker movements of the day and give greater standing to workers, agian to prevent revolt. Unionism boomed and the 1% shared the prosperity with the workers there for a while.
Taft Hartly was a major bill to limit labors influence in the 40s I think and then came the second red scare in the 50s featuring McCarthy. That really sealed the fate of unions in the US because it tied labor to commies and totalitarianism. The death knell of organized labor in the US was Reagan who championed union busting.

So, fast forward to today and our great inequality, where workers cheer the owners for avoiding taxes and begrudge any penny spent to help fellow workers, let alone acting the DFH to protest conditions like the OWS people - unless of course it is about paying taxes that is.

The going forward part is the scary part. Will the owners give up their self congratulatory, well deserved wealth and entitlement as the general economy slows and deflates or will they continue to claw until every morsel is under their table? After all they have finally hit on the perfect combination of strings to pull with the guns and bibles crowd to make them dance like marionettes to the booth to vote against their own interests.


We aren't there yet, but a couple more "business cycles" though, a relentless downward GDP and Energy Per Capita trendline and eventually enough workers will feel the real sting of hunger to stand up, I've no doubt of it.
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Re: America's Descent into Poverty

Postby AgentR11 » Fri 31 Aug 2012, 17:01:03

Gotta say it again.
PowerDown. This is what it looks like in reality, divested from ideology and hippy-think. The 1% prosper, the 20% coalesce as an enclave buffer, and the remaining 80% are priced out of everything significant that takes energy to provide.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('article', 'D')emocrats would have demanded corrections, and Republicans would have reluctantly agreed.


In the past, there was sufficient energy and wealth to go around, so the dems could demand that which the reps could agree with as possible (if distasteful).

Today, no dice. As much as we like to mock the political class, none of them are idiots, and they are all well advised by other well educated people. They can add. They know that there isn't enough to go around, so fall back to plan B, which is to financially protect their own resource base, tolerate the resource base of their opponents (if publicly ridiculing them at the same time); and then insure that the high fructose corn syrup and bleached, ground wheat makes it to market and is purchasable by cash or SNAP card. As long as Uncle Bob's kids aren't hungry, revolution will be a long way away in the US...

If the grain and sugar become unavailable; this whole party will go splat. As of now though, I'm burning enough corn in my truck to feed quite a few families, and I don't drive all that much; and SNAP rolls are continuing to grow rapidly.
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Re: America's Descent into Poverty

Postby Oneaboveall » Fri 31 Aug 2012, 21:46:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '.')..other corporations can live off the hundreds of millions of new consumers showing up in China, India and elsewhere in the developing world. So if they lose one American consumer for every two or three they gain globally they win. This is the global new world order and the corporate elites could care less about social stratification and shrinking of the middle class in the 1st world.


That plan might not be working out quite as intended:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')UANGZHOU, China — After three decades of torrid growth, China is encountering an unfamiliar problem with its newly struggling economy: a huge buildup of unsold goods that is cluttering shop floors, clogging car dealerships and filling factory warehouses.
The glut of everything from steel and household appliances to cars and apartments is hampering China’s efforts to emerge from a sharp economic slowdown. It has also produced a series of price wars and has led manufacturers to redouble efforts to export what they cannot sell at home...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/24/busin ... .html?_r=1

Doesn't seem like those desired foreign consumers are picking up the slack.
When the banksters want something, our policymakers move with the speed of Mercury and the determination of Ares. It’s only when the rest of us need something that there is paralysis.

How free are we today with the dominance of globalist capital and militarized security apparatus?
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Re: America's Descent into Poverty

Postby Serial_Worrier » Fri 31 Aug 2012, 23:02:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'G')otta say it again.
PowerDown. This is what it looks like in reality, divested from ideology and hippy-think. The 1% prosper, the 20% coalesce as an enclave buffer, and the remaining 80% are priced out of everything significant that takes energy to provide.


Up until the 20th century, poverty was the condition of the 99%. If it's been reduced to 80% that's a victory.
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Re: America's Descent into Poverty

Postby vtsnowedin » Sat 01 Sep 2012, 09:02:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '[')
Up until the 20th century, poverty was the condition of the 99%. If it's been reduced to 80% that's a victory.

So 99% of what was built in America between 1776 and 1900 was owned by just one percent of the population. Seems odd that the one percent would build all those houses and barns, churches, town halls, mills , railroads, canals ,dams. etc. I think you figures or your perception of what those figures meant in those times are way off.
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Re: America's Descent into Poverty

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 01 Sep 2012, 09:27:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Serial_Worrier', '[')
Up until the 20th century, poverty was the condition of the 99%. If it's been reduced to 80% that's a victory.

So 99% of what was built in America between 1776 and 1900 was owned by just one percent of the population. Seems odd that the one percent would build all those houses and barns, churches, town halls, mills , railroads, canals ,dams. etc. I think you figures or your perception of what those figures meant in those times are way off.

1% was paying, 99% was building...
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