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Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

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Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Sun 01 Aug 2010, 01:38:19

Forget 2012, global warming and peak oil. A half kilometer (1/4 mile) asteroid may hit the Earth in 2182 as announced today:

http://www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2010 ... ctory.html

They've been tracking this asteroid for 10 years and only today have they come to the conclusion that it might hit the Earth in 2182.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 01 Aug 2010, 03:00:19

I hardly care about what might or might not hit Earth in 2182...

There is a good chance that 2182 there won't be many (if at all) intelligent observers to appreciate the show.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby Ayame » Sun 01 Aug 2010, 03:29:09

This sounds about right as by this time humanity should have gone right through the levelling event and ended up back in feudal society or maybe worse as climate change kicks in overdrive. This of course would be very boring to god or the creator who would have anyways run out of divine popcorn by that time especially since feudalism was so 12th century and tribalism was so 20000 years ago. So it would be time for the creator to create another devastation to change the species in play for his/her sadistic amusement. It's what happened to the dinosaurs.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 01 Aug 2010, 08:09:33

I think I'll put this one near the bottom of the worry list.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 01 Aug 2010, 08:18:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'I') think I'll put this one near the bottom of the worry list.


It's not even likely to happen:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he asteroid named 1999-RQ36 has a one-in-1,000 chance of hitting the Earth in 2182.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby pup55 » Sun 01 Aug 2010, 11:29:45

I have a few "what ifs".....

What if it was 100% certain to happen in 172 years? What would we or should we do about it?

First of all, there is a certain segment of the population, maybe 20%, that will dismiss it as a hoax, or a conspiracy, or some other thing.... and resist any action of any kind. That would be enough to plant the seed of doubt in roughly another 20% or so I suppose.... maybe a higher fraction than that, so any sort of large scale action to try to either stop the asteroid or take some other action to survive would be out the window.....

What if, instead of happening in 172 years, the same asteroid was projected to hit the earth in 50 years, within the life span of our children. Could we convince the reluctant 20% and their doubtful allies to do something? I am thinking that there would be resistance right up to the point of having it appear on CNN, if such a thing still exists in 2060.

What if, instead of happening in 50 years, it was projected to happen in 10 years, and was 99% certain to cause a planet killing catastrophe. What would we do? Would we still be able to convince the flat-earthers that they were doomed? Would we be able to prepare, with the state of technology what it is right now? Would you live your life any differently? Quit your job? Well, we could take this all sorts of different directions.

Makes you wonder.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby 2cher » Sun 01 Aug 2010, 12:11:38

You can't control life son.

All you can do is live your life now, if you constantly worry about the next boogeyman on the horizon, then you aren't living a life worth worrying about.

Who knows if we have 100 years, 50 years, 10 years, or even if we will have tomorrow. There is no point planning for events that we have no control over, all you will do is make yourself sick.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 01 Aug 2010, 14:03:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'W')hat if, instead of happening in 172 years, the same asteroid was projected to hit the earth in 50 years, within the life span of our children. Could we convince the reluctant 20% and their doubtful allies to do something? I am thinking that there would be resistance right up to the point of having it appear on CNN, if such a thing still exists in 2060.


The world's top 1% control everything.. they don't fancy doom by asteroid anymore than we do, so yeah if it were certain then something would be done about. This is being worked on now to some extent, how to "nudge" an asteroid -- actually doesn't take much force to alter course enough. And the potential threat is why we're even tracking them now in the first place.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby Pops » Mon 02 Aug 2010, 08:17:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'M')akes you wonder.

I doubt if that 40% could be convinced the asteroid is anything other than the finger of god...
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby efarmer » Mon 02 Aug 2010, 12:40:22

Will this be a liberal or conservative asteroid?
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Sat 16 Jun 2012, 11:58:32

Two year update to this thread:

Picture of our doom:

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/6527 ... A15776.jpg

The effect of solar wind has altered the asteroid's oribit:

http://dailycosmicnews.blogspot.ca/2012 ... eroid.html

NASA to study and sample the asteroid with an unmanned probe:

http://osiris-rex.lpl.arizona.edu/?q=gallery

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')steroid sample-return

The $800 million Osiris-Rex mission — its name is short for Origins-Spectral Interpretation-Resource Identification-Security-Regolith Explorer — should arrive at 1999 RQ36 in 2020 and return some samples of the asteroid to Earth by 2023.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Considering the asteroid’s orbit, size, thermal properties and propulsive force, he was able to determine that 1999 RQ36 is about 60 million metric tons at about 1,600 feet across.

Source: redOrbit (http://s.tt/1cLCW)


Video of the project:

http://www.space.com/11791-killer-aster ... ssion.html

If the powers that be are investing $800 million dollars to study this thing, you want to bet this is seen as a real threat to the Earth!!
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby eXpat » Sat 16 Jun 2012, 12:58:25

From your link Repent
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n 2135, the 500-meter (1,640-foot) diameter asteroid will swing by Earth at around 350,000 kilometers (220,000 miles), its closest approach over the 481-year time span. That's closer than the Moon, which orbits about 390,000 kilometers (240,000 miles) from Earth. At such close distances, the asteroid's subsequent trajectory becomes impossible to accurately predict so close approaches can only be studied statistically, Chesley said.

That´s too close for confort! :shock:
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby dissident » Sat 16 Jun 2012, 22:11:57

We'll have more to worry about before the late 22nd century. Like massive failure of agriculture from around 2050 onward thanks to global warming, aquifer exhaustion and overpopulation/development. This will shake the human civilization on this planet to its foundation and like every time in history (Sumerians, Maya, etc) there will be some artifacts left behind and the people will die out or be scattered to the winds.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the powers that be are investing $800 million dollars to study this thing, you want to bet this is seen as a real threat to the Earth!!


No. It's called corporate welfare. Aerospace companies need tax dollars to operate. Meanwhile they'll skimp on climate science, all the bleating about rich climate scientists notwithstanding.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Sat 16 Jun 2012, 23:56:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e'll have more to worry about before the late 22nd century. Like massive failure of agriculture from around 2050 onward thanks to global warming, aquifer exhaustion and overpopulation/development. This will shake the human civilization on this planet to its foundation and like every time in history (Sumerians, Maya, etc) there will be some artifacts left behind and the people will die out or be scattered to the winds.


I bet something similar to this statement above was said about 'the Limits to Growth' when it was published in 1972, the warning was ignored, the thought being that this is decades away and we can deal with it later. We missed our mitigation deadline, and now we face a collapse from overshoot at some point.

If the above quote is true, then we will lack the space technologies to mitigate the collision risk in the mid-22nd century, whereas we have these technologies now. We need to act now so we don't have to deal with a major asteroid collision when our civilzation has collapsed and we no longer have the option of mitigation available.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 17 Jun 2012, 04:22:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'I') have a few "what ifs".....

What if it was 100% certain to happen in 172 years? What would we or should we do about it?

...

What if, instead of happening in 50 years, it was projected to happen in 10 years, and was 99% certain to cause a planet killing catastrophe. What would we do? Would we still be able to convince the flat-earthers that they were doomed? Would we be able to prepare, with the state of technology what it is right now? Would you live your life any differently? Quit your job? Well, we could take this all sorts of different directions.

Makes you wonder.


Relax. Even if it WERE 99% certain that this would hit the earth and obliterate everything in the biosphere larger than a bacteria in ten years, there are multiple ways scientists have already thought of to deal with this.

Awhile back (memory says a year or two) there was a very interesting science show on someplace like "The Discovery Channel" or "The History Channel" where quite a few "real" scientists (several of which have appeared many times on the "Universe" series), discussed practical ways of doing this.

As long as we have a lead time measured in years, very simple ideas like a "gravity tractor", where a probe would be sent to travel close by the thing and gradually alter its trajectory a bit through simple gravitational attraction were discussed. (The cumulative effect of such a device, deployed well ahead of time, would alter the trajectory plenty. This sounded simplest to me, as one doesn't need to land on it, do things to it like run a motor to change the trajectory, paint one side another color to impact solar wind effects, etc).

Interestingly, the "old school" method of trying to blow such a thing up in any way was soundly rejected as the worst thing we could do, pretty much universally. Too much chance of ending up with many large fragments all coming at us.

The key things are if there is a reasoable lead time, and if there is the collective global political will to actually take concerted action well ahead of time. Also, since this isn't exactly something we do regularly, early action and multiple methods allowing backups would be safest -- but very expensive. And who should pay? The politics and procrastination could be the most difficult issues to overcome.

The scary thing (for you zombie scenario lovers out there) is that if some reasonably large near earth orbit object is discovered with little (say under a year) lead time before collision, or if some object we know about gets bumped by something and happens to head right for us with little lead time -- we could be really screwed.

Since the odds of this are small in the next century or so, we (as has been pointed out) should likely have the time to do the job to scew up the planet really badly all by ourselves, simply by imitating ostriches.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 17 Jun 2012, 04:28:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', ' ')the above quote is true, then we will lack the space technologies to mitigate the collision risk in the mid-22nd century, whereas we have these technologies now. We need to act now so we don't have to deal with a major asteroid collision when our civilzation has collapsed and we no longer have the option of mitigation available.

Who cares what will be in late 22 nd century?
In any case 500m asteroid might wipe out large part of a reasonably sized country, not entire humanity (if anything is still left out of humanity in late 22nd century).
And there will be hundreds of large asteroids to cope with *after* technological civilization collapsed.

So move on.
Yawn.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Sun 17 Jun 2012, 09:26:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho cares what will be in late 22 nd century?


My grandkids, grandkids will likely care that's who. Your planning horizion is too short. Their lives will be miserable after the collapse of civilization, lets leave them with one less thing to worry about!
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 17 Jun 2012, 09:49:57

Now we know! New wujo. June 16, 2012 3:46am posted. Important for humans who live in coastal areas of earth.

Podcast available free ->Broken link; Required the user to download and install a file.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Sun 17 Jun 2012, 17:32:51, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: URL deleted. Broken link; Required the user to download and install a file.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 17 Jun 2012, 10:04:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho cares what will be in late 22 nd century?


My grandkids, grandkids will likely care that's who. Your planning horizion is too short. Their lives will be miserable after the collapse of civilization, lets leave them with one less thing to worry about!

These are events 7 generations away.
No one from the era of Napoleon wars have taken care about me, so there is no need for me to worry about grandkids of grandkids of my grandkids.
So lets not worry about BS, don't waste money on it and allow Nature to take its course.
There are other, more imminent issues to worry about these days and if we don't resolve these, gradkids of grandkids of my grandkids won't even exist.
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Re: Huge asteroid may hit Earth in year 2182

Unread postby dinopello » Sun 17 Jun 2012, 12:17:41

I went to my nephew's High School graduation yesterday and the speaker they had was Charles Bolden, the director of NASA. He didn't mention the doom scenario at all, but did mention that this graduating class would have the challenge of landing on asteroids. Apart from mining them, blowing them up or diverting their course is maybe what he was referring to.
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