by Outcast_Searcher » Sun 17 Jun 2012, 04:22:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'I') have a few "what ifs".....
What if it was 100% certain to happen in 172 years? What would we or should we do about it?
...
What if, instead of happening in 50 years, it was projected to happen in 10 years, and was 99% certain to cause a planet killing catastrophe. What would we do? Would we still be able to convince the flat-earthers that they were doomed? Would we be able to prepare, with the state of technology what it is right now? Would you live your life any differently? Quit your job? Well, we could take this all sorts of different directions.
Makes you wonder.
Relax. Even if it WERE 99% certain that this would hit the earth and obliterate everything in the biosphere larger than a bacteria in ten years, there are multiple ways scientists have already thought of to deal with this.
Awhile back (memory says a year or two) there was a very interesting science show on someplace like "The Discovery Channel" or "The History Channel" where quite a few "real" scientists (several of which have appeared many times on the "Universe" series), discussed practical ways of doing this.
As long as we have a lead time measured in years, very simple ideas like a "gravity tractor", where a probe would be sent to travel close by the thing and gradually alter its trajectory a bit through simple gravitational attraction were discussed. (The cumulative effect of such a device, deployed well ahead of time, would alter the trajectory plenty. This sounded simplest to me, as one doesn't need to land on it, do things to it like run a motor to change the trajectory, paint one side another color to impact solar wind effects, etc).
Interestingly, the "old school" method of trying to blow such a thing up in any way was soundly rejected as the worst thing we could do, pretty much universally. Too much chance of ending up with many large fragments all coming at us.
The key things are if there is a reasoable lead time, and if there is the collective global political will to actually take concerted action well ahead of time. Also, since this isn't exactly something we do regularly, early action and multiple methods allowing backups would be safest -- but very expensive. And who should pay? The politics and procrastination could be the most difficult issues to overcome.
The scary thing (for you zombie scenario lovers out there) is that if some reasonably large near earth orbit object is discovered with little (say under a year) lead time before collision, or if some object we know about gets bumped by something and happens to head right for us with little lead time -- we could be really screwed.
Since the odds of this are small in the next century or so, we (as has been pointed out) should likely have the time to do the job to scew up the planet really badly all by ourselves, simply by imitating ostriches.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.