[Beery1]

In answer to the question in the thread title: oil lost its lustre for me somewhere around 1980, when I started commuting to work by bicycle. In my view, cars are a mug's game. You'd be better-off throwing hundreds of dollars per month in the bin than you would be by owning a car.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', 'S')o I collected one of these, which should repay itself in fuel costs within 5000 miles of use. Call it two summers of commuting.

[pprovazky55]

I personally do not agree that the oil prouction will start to fall by 2020. If you look at the other nations, e.g. Russia, Canada, USA, Norway, Denmark and other countries around the Artic zone. The scientists predicted, that the ice should melt down earlier than they supposed, and look, these countries are dispatching their army to take over this area. All of this is because the natural resources. These nations all know about the importance of this area, and therefore I think the question about oil production to fall is quite rash.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pprovazky55', 'I') personally do not agree that the oil prouction will start to fall by 2020. ... All of this is because the natural resources. These nations all know about the importance of this area, and therefore I think the question about oil production to fall is quite rash.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..A small number of analysts forecast that oil production will start to fall by 2020 - not because we are running out, but because we just won't need it.

[soilmaker]

Here is a very interesting 2012 White paper done for the IMF on the future of oil.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12109.pdf

Bottom line...their models predict oil prices will likely double in the next decade due in large part to decreasing supplies. (Although they do use the words "peak oil" they are talking about it.)

The authors examine the effects of various things on the price of oil. Yes, it's true that economic slow downs do have an effect on demand, which in turn affects prices. And, better extraction technology can increase supply temporarily, but these things are not going to overcome the effects of reduced supplies.

The idea that the world's economies won't crash from higher oil prices because of declining consumption only offers small hope to me. Interestingly, the authors of the report also state that although oil sales only comprise a relatively small portion of GDP (3.5%), they caution that such high prices may have a much larger impact than current economists predict. Duhhh! They admit that this really is uncharted territory and they believe consequences could be very serious.

It has been hard for me to understand why economic experts can't see the dependence of the world's economies on oil.
JKT

[SeaGypsy]

Virtually every pundit in Europe still blathers on about 'return to growth' like the magic rabbit they just need to find the danged right hat for; when what they should be talking about is controlled retraction. Like most of the world at present, oil is part of the equation but it's key position is virtually completely overlooked in MSM & politics. All the talk is about debt. The debt would not matter if we had an equivalent to oil as an energy source, in unlimited supply at reasonable EROEI and no significant polluting effects (Unicorn). It's for dearth of this particular Unicorn that the economy as we have known it and expected to be there is rapidly dissolving.

[Keith_McClary]

Peak oil: Are we looking at it all wrong? (on PO news) discussing the NS article, makes the point:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut we hit a bigger snag when we come to the question of falling prices for hybrid and electric cars – which will happen supposedly because of the falling cost of producing lithium ion batteries. It wouldn’t have to fall enough to make hybrids and electrics cost the same as ICEs, according to the analysts – “just enough to be swallowed by [the fuel-cost] gap.” But actually, they’d have to fall further than that – and not just the battery costs. Hybrids and electric cars aren’t more expensive just because the batteries are – they’re also recouping the cost of the research, technology development and testing that went into creating them.

Plus, the price doesn’t have to fall only enough to make the overall equation, including fuel expenditures, balance out: It has to fall enough to overcome the basic economic fact that the big lump sum you spend now – or commit to spending – always looms much larger than the steady moderate amounts you’re going to save later. Have you ever heard the saying “it costs less to be rich”? That’s because people with more money can do things like invest in efficiencies that will pay off over time. People on a budget have a much harder time doing that, and will be more turned off by that higher sticker price.

[shortonoil]

pstarr said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow did you arrive at 7.3:1? Is that related to the the oil expense index, total-cost-of-crude/GDP?

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '[')url=http://www.wheels.ca/news/peak-oil-are-we-looking-at-it-all-wrong/]Peak oil: Are we looking at it all wrong?[/url] (on PO news) discussing the NS article, makes the point:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut we hit a bigger snag when we come to the question of falling prices for hybrid and electric cars – which will happen supposedly because of the falling cost of producing lithium ion batteries. It wouldn’t have to fall enough to make hybrids and electrics cost the same as ICEs, according to the analysts – “just enough to be swallowed by [the fuel-cost] gap.” But actually, they’d have to fall further than that – and not just the battery costs. Hybrids and electric cars aren’t more expensive just because the batteries are – they’re also recouping the cost of the research, technology development and testing that went into creating them.

Plus, the price doesn’t have to fall only enough to make the overall equation, including fuel expenditures, balance out: It has to fall enough to overcome the basic economic fact that the big lump sum you spend now – or commit to spending – always looms much larger than the steady moderate amounts you’re going to save later. Have you ever heard the saying “it costs less to be rich”? That’s because people with more money can do things like invest in efficiencies that will pay off over time. People on a budget have a much harder time doing that, and will be more turned off by that higher sticker price.