I reworded a little for clarity and added the appropriate buzzwords in case someone would want to search the term, I don't think I changed any definitions. Whadda ya think?
1. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale, unimpeded extraction typically follows a bell-shaped curve with a maximum followed by terminal decline. [Peak Oil]
2. Discovery of new conventional oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still.
3. Easily discovered and extracted oil has been depleted first, leaving the difficult and expensive oil for last. [Low-Hanging Fruit]
4. Increasing energy expended in finding, developing, extracting and refining oil reduces the 'net energy' available for work. [Energy Return On Energy Invested]
5. As oil production declines and oil exporting nations become wealthier, they consume more oil internally, thus reducing their oil exports. [Export Land Model]
6. A tightening oil supply causes oil prices to increase, making once unprofitable oil profitable, however,
7. Increasing oil prices decrease oil demand by reducing the amount of oil consumers can afford to purchase. [Supply and Demand]
8. Increasing oil prices reduce consumption in other categories, depressing the world economy.
9. Scaling up substitutes for oil (i.e., electric cars), will take considerable time, and only after the need is recognized.
10. Significant amounts of national oil company data are unavailable, obscuring the true situation.
PeakOil is You
THE 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
by Pops » Mon 15 Aug 2011, 08:22:18
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
by MD » Mon 15 Aug 2011, 08:53:03
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '.')..
But at any rate, most of the questionable reserves revisions are in countries with NOCs and no independent auditing and I've never seen an explanation for that aside from simple coincidence.
But at any rate, most of the questionable reserves revisions are in countries with NOCs and no independent auditing and I've never seen an explanation for that aside from simple coincidence.
No? It's my understanding that in 1986 or so OPEC tied annual production allowances to stated reserves. The next year Kuwait suddenly discovered an extra 50 billion barrels or so, thus allowing them to ramp up production. The following year most other members followed suit.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
by Pops » Mon 15 Aug 2011, 10:20:07
I'm not sure of your point MD.
OPEC raised their reserve numbers drastically but since their books aren't open - or haven't been for a long while, I'm not sure you can say for sure much more than 'no one knows' without it being speculation, can you?
Personally I think they're just paper barrels or p5 wishful guesses but I have no facts.
OPEC raised their reserve numbers drastically but since their books aren't open - or haven't been for a long while, I'm not sure you can say for sure much more than 'no one knows' without it being speculation, can you?
Personally I think they're just paper barrels or p5 wishful guesses but I have no facts.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
by kublikhan » Mon 15 Aug 2011, 15:09:55
Nice list. I went ahead and linked to various article on these facts to make it easier. Feel free to change any of the links to a better article if you know of one:
Peak Oil
1. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale, unimpeded extraction typically follows a bell-shaped curve with a maximum followed by terminal decline.
Discoveries
2. Discovery of new conventional oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still.
Exploration Costs
3. Easily discovered and extracted oil has been depleted first, leaving the difficult and expensive oil for last.
Energy Return On Energy Invested
4. Increasing energy expended in finding, developing, extracting and refining oil reduces the 'net energy' available for work.
Export Land Model
5. As oil production declines and oil exporting nations become wealthier, they consume more oil internally, thus reducing their oil exports.
The Consequences of Cheap and Expensive Oil
6. A tightening oil supply causes oil prices to increase, making once unprofitable oil profitable, however,
7. Increasing oil prices can decrease oil demand by reducing the amount of oil consumers can afford to purchase and/or
8. Increasing oil prices can reduce consumption in other categories, depressing the world economy.
Scaling Time
9. Scaling up substitutes for oil (i.e., electric cars), will take considerable time, and only after the need is recognized.
Unreliable Information
10. Significant amounts of national oil company data are unavailable, obscuring the true situation.
Peak Oil
1. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale, unimpeded extraction typically follows a bell-shaped curve with a maximum followed by terminal decline.
Discoveries
2. Discovery of new conventional oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still.
Exploration Costs
3. Easily discovered and extracted oil has been depleted first, leaving the difficult and expensive oil for last.
Energy Return On Energy Invested
4. Increasing energy expended in finding, developing, extracting and refining oil reduces the 'net energy' available for work.
Export Land Model
5. As oil production declines and oil exporting nations become wealthier, they consume more oil internally, thus reducing their oil exports.
The Consequences of Cheap and Expensive Oil
6. A tightening oil supply causes oil prices to increase, making once unprofitable oil profitable, however,
7. Increasing oil prices can decrease oil demand by reducing the amount of oil consumers can afford to purchase and/or
8. Increasing oil prices can reduce consumption in other categories, depressing the world economy.
Scaling Time
9. Scaling up substitutes for oil (i.e., electric cars), will take considerable time, and only after the need is recognized.
Unreliable Information
10. Significant amounts of national oil company data are unavailable, obscuring the true situation.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
by Pops » Mon 15 Aug 2011, 15:46:48
That's great Kub!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
by Plantagenet » Mon 15 Aug 2011, 16:12:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote(' ', '
')7. Increasing oil prices decrease oil demand° by reducing the amount of oil consumers can afford to purchase. [Supply and Demand]
')7. Increasing oil prices decrease oil demand° by reducing the amount of oil consumers can afford to purchase. [Supply and Demand]
Great list. #7 could be clarified a bit more...
7. Decreasing oil supply causes increases in oil prices which reduces the amount of oil consumers can afford to purchase [Supply and Demand]
-----------------------
The demand for oil doesn't go down. The amount of oil being consumed goes down solely because people can't afford to buy as much at higher prices.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
by MD » Tue 16 Aug 2011, 08:07:33
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '.')..I'm not sure you can say for sure much more than 'no one knows' without it being speculation, can you?
...
...
Well, the facts are few:
-OPEC changed their production quotas
-within a few years the members raised their reserves.
Given those facts what are the possible reasons for the sudden increase? Here are a few that I can think of off the top of my head. I am sure there are more.
-changes to reserve calculation methods
-they all discovered 40% additional reserves around the same time.
-The big oil companies grossly underestimated reserves as they initially developed the fields in previous decades, and the opec revisions were corrective actions.
-OPEC members individually fudged their reserve numbers upwards so that they could ship more product as compared to the other members. Kuwait was first, most of the rest picked up on the game the following year, and Saudi Arabia finally tagged along.
OK, given the possible reasons as stated above, which speculation or combination of speculations is most likely the closest to the truth?
Or of course you can just shrug your shoulders and say "who knows?" By now it's mostly moot, so a shrug and a move-along is as good an answer as any, I guess.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
by kildred590 » Tue 16 Aug 2011, 11:38:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a') point made several times is the bump coincides with the point at which OPEC changed the manner by which calculation of production allocations would be handled. One entirely credible possibility is that they included probable reserves with proven as the criteria. This would explain a sudden bump of this nature.
They also happened all to have foreign deficits at that point.
And the reserves were used as capital to secure loans - funny that.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '4'). Increasing energy expended in finding, developing, extracting and refining oil reduces the 'net energy' available for work.
It's much more important than that.
It reduces "net labour"
Labour drives growth (a commodity has no value until labour is applied).
So a reduction in labour will reduce the money supply (which is what we are seeing right now).
[quote6. A tightening oil supply causes oil prices to increase, making once unprofitable oil profitable, however,
7. Increasing oil prices decrease oil demand by reducing the amount of oil consumers can afford to purchase.
8. Increasing oil prices reduce consumption in other categories, depressing the world economy.][/quote]
You've ignored two points,
first, energy can be obtained from other sources,
secondly, this energy requires more labour (COST), and therefore net labour-surplus and money supply is LOWER.
This means that less CAPITAL is available to secure loans and CREDIT becomes scarcer.
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), but the knee-jerk response of many people is "we've got X years of reserves, same as we had 20 years ago, what's the problem?". Of course the answer is that the reserves 20 years ago were of $10 oil. This could be addressed in #6.
