10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil (edits bold/underlined)
1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum production rates followed by terminal production rate decline.
2. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale.
2. Discovery of new oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still.
3. Easily extracted (inexpensive) oil will be depleted faster than oil with various cost-increasing production complications.
4. Unless suppressed, the population of an oil producing nation will become an oil consuming one, their consumption will impact the oil they have available for export.
Why doesn't Nigeria use up it's exports? Simple: it's suppressed.
5. Increasing oil prices can increase reserves by making once unprofitable oil profitable
Must define "reserves" here or no one will get it. "Reserves" doesn't qualify as a "basic" term.
6. Increasing oil prices decrease demand by reducing the amount consumers can purchase
7. Increasing oil prices reduce discretionary income available for other uses depressing the economy.
6 and 7 could be combined and they are horrible and offensive to me because the do not pay attention to industry.
They promulgate a myth that it's all about consumers and their cars. Pay attention to industrial use of oil as it is key:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]‘Peak Demand,’ Yes, But Not the Nice Kind
By Chris Nelder
Friday, March 5th, 2010
... Most people thought the nearly 2 mbpd decline in U.S. petroleum demand from 2007 through 2009 owed to efficiency and people driving less.
In reality, only about 15% owed to reduced gasoline demand. The other 85% was lost in the commercial and industrial sector: jet fuel, distillates (including diesel), kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, and other miscellaneous products.
Very simply, when oil got to $120 a barrel it cut into real productivity, and forced the world’s most developed economies to shrink. At $147, it wreaked serious damage. ... the new normal will be cycles of bumping our heads against the supply ceiling, falling dazed to the floor, rising back to our knees, then finally standing, only to bump our heads against the ceiling once more. ... The true import of peak oil, therefore, may not be sustained high prices, but economic shrinkage.
PeakOil is You
THE 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
by bratticus » Fri 13 May 2011, 10:54:05
8. Scaling down to fit substitutes for oil (i.e., electric cars), will take considerable time, after the need is recognized.
9. Significant amounts of national oil company data are unavailable, obscuring the true situation.
10. Increasing energy expended in finding and developing, and often in extracting and refining oil reduces the net energy produced.
10 is redundant to 3 as EROI / EROEI is a production complication
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
by kublikhan » Fri 13 May 2011, 12:04:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')e've also neglected Mr. Jevons...
Anyone pay attention to him any more?
An interesting article...
They did a rather exhaustive study on Jevons paradox. The study largely debunked Jevons Paradox. Jevons was looking at a new disruptive technology that was just introduced. In that scenario, yes, overall energy use will increase. Examples: steam engine, electric motor, etc. However, when they studied efficiency gains in mature systems, they generally did NOT cause Jevons paradox. This is particularly true for consumers rather than producers. Examples: Insulating your house, buying a more fuel efficient car, etc. They did notice some increase in use because of increased efficiency. But not enough to overwhelm the efficiency gain. In general, they found that for every 10 units of energy saved from efficiency gain, 1 unit is lost to increased use. That is still a 90% energy savings. So basically, unless there is some new disruptive technology on the horizon, such as fusion, Jevons Paradox is not something that needs to be worried about.Anyone pay attention to him any more?
An interesting article...
Here was the paper: 'Rebound Effects' Threaten Success of UK Climate Policy
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: 10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
by Expatriot » Fri 13 May 2011, 12:55:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Expatriot', 'T')he first type understand that, given human propensity for war and aggression and resource monopolization, carnage must result from PO.
There are potential outcomes all across the spectrum.
Incorrect. You are stating your normalcy bias in oblique terms.
Barring divine intervention, there is only a single possible outcome - world chaos.
If you want to dicker about which country will invade which, well we can do that (I'd like 10 on the Germans leaving their borders before 2020).
But there will be perpetual world war over the remaining resources.
To believe something else is to believe that putting 10 starving wolves into a cage with 20 pounds of meat will not cause fighting.
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