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THE Bond Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

THE Bond Thread (merged)

Unread postby duke3522 » Wed 04 May 2005, 12:01:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')reasuries Fall as U.S. Considers Reintroducing 30-Year Bond
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond fell the most in more than a year, leading longer-maturity debt lower, after the government surprised investors by saying it is considering resuming sales of the security.
Article

Maybe the Feds are going to tell all the bond holders "Well we can't pay off those short term bonds you have, but we'll be happy to let you buy a bunch of our 30 year bonds."
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Unread postby gnm » Wed 04 May 2005, 12:29:51

I believe I read somewhere that the fed defaulted on bonds a couple years back - only paying a percentage of the total back...

I'll see if I can find the article..

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Unread postby crude_intentions » Wed 04 May 2005, 13:21:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')aybe the Feds are going to tell all the bond holders "Well we can't pay off those short term bonds you have, but we'll be happy to let you buy a bunch of our 30 year bonds."


Kinda like when someone tries to pay off a Bounced Check, By writing another Check. :lol:
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Unread postby Jack » Wed 04 May 2005, 13:30:52

Actually, it's a clever move. What the Fed is saying is that they believe rates will go higher. So...sell long term bonds and lock in a low rate. Of course, purchasers of the bonds will rue the day...
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bonds... yeah right!

Unread postby merecat » Thu 05 May 2005, 01:09:10

ha ha :lol: :lol: :lol: 30 year US bonds... oh my sides... only mugs and marks will be buying these. The us feds a good grifter, i'll give it that! If anyone out there's considering buying them then why not also buy a shed load of bonds from me, good price, i have an inkjet, they will look real purdy, I promise to pay the bearer in 30 years.... you will clean up.... honest! :roll:
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Unread postby lowem » Thu 05 May 2005, 10:09:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'I') believe I read somewhere that the fed defaulted on bonds a couple years back - only paying a percentage of the total back...

I'll see if I can find the article..

-G


Article on etherzone.com :
http://www.etherzone.com/2004/henr011904.shtml

Original Treasury announcement :
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/com/comcall.htm
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Unread postby Doly » Thu 05 May 2005, 10:13:09

I don't know anything about investments, but aren't bonds supposed to be one of the safest investments possible?
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Unread postby Grimnir » Thu 05 May 2005, 13:09:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I') don't know anything about investments, but aren't bonds supposed to be one of the safest investments possible?


Depends. The only way you can usually lose the dollars is if the government collapses (ahem), but if inflation runs above the bond's interest rate, you will still lose value.
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Bond Question

Unread postby Pfish » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 22:00:16

Does a holder of a bond have rights to the assets the bond was issued on?

Case in point: Fannie Mae had been shoveling off these brilliant 2-5 ARMs as bonds on the market. My understanding is China and other Asian nations have bought these. Now, it seems when the market turns there will be a lot of defaults and foreclosures--there always are. But does the holder of the bond have access to the property as collateral?

Back in the 80's the US suckered Japan into buying property at highly inflated values--Sears Tower, Pebble Beach to name a few. As soon as the market swamped, the banks in Japan took it on the nose and did not recover for many years.

So is the US doing it again to a different trading partner? Or would China own title to the land?

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Unread postby ubercrap » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 22:59:20

Isn't Japan still the country most highly invested in the U.S. by a longshot?
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Re: Bond Question

Unread postby jdmartin » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 23:15:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pfish', 'D')oes a holder of a bond have rights to the assets the bond was issued on?

Case in point: Fannie Mae had been shoveling off these brilliant 2-5 ARMs as bonds on the market. My understanding is China and other Asian nations have bought these. Now, it seems when the market turns there will be a lot of defaults and foreclosures--there always are. But does the holder of the bond have access to the property as collateral?

Back in the 80's the US suckered Japan into buying property at highly inflated values--Sears Tower, Pebble Beach to name a few. As soon as the market swamped, the banks in Japan took it on the nose and did not recover for many years.

So is the US doing it again to a different trading partner? Or would China own title to the land?

PP


Depends on the bond. Some bonds are issued with specific collateral, although I don't think it is commonly property. For example, municipal bonds might be issued with a certain revenue source as collateral, so that if the city defaulted the bond holder would have access to that collateral. Usually things end up in bankruptcy rather than simply defaulting, which also means you get pennies or nothing on the dollar.

I would guess the fannie mae type bonds are backed by the credit of the United States rather than the property itself. So in theory they're risk-free since it is assumed that if Fannie Mae couldn't pay, Uncle Sam would pony up in their place. If we just decided "Screw it, we're not paying", there's probably nothing short of war to make us pay, but it would be fairly certain no one would be loaning us money anymore, meaning the economy would crash pretty hard and fast.

In short, it would be ugly.
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Unread postby Pfish » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 23:41:22

JD:

I don't think Fannie Mae is guaranteed by the US gov. In fact, I think this is why Greenspan warned congress (fat lotta good that did him) about the impending bond market created by Fannie Mae. Think about it. The US brings in a couple of financial types from Aisa. Wines them. Dines them. Hooks 'em up with hookers. Shoves a little into the private swiss kitty. Now you are talking! Same show, different ponies than in the 80's. Again, I don't think they are guaranteed by the US currency.

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Unread postby lowem » Fri 03 Jun 2005, 23:45:19

Bond holders are by definition creditors and have first rights to the underlying assets, ahead of shareholders.

So if a company goes belly-up, the creditors will have to be paid first. It's a long and messy process, and everybody loses here and there, but the shareholders who didn't sell off earlier typically won't get much - if anything.

The above is for corporate bonds. Government bonds are a little bit different.

And, "full faith and credit" of the United States government isn't quite 100% nowadays anyway :
http://www.jroller.com/page/lowem/20040 ... t_defaults
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Unread postby jdmartin » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 01:31:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pfish', 'J')D:

I don't think Fannie Mae is guaranteed by the US gov. In fact, I think this is why Greenspan warned congress (fat lotta good that did him) about the impending bond market created by Fannie Mae. Think about it. The US brings in a couple of financial types from Aisa. Wines them. Dines them. Hooks 'em up with hookers. Shoves a little into the private swiss kitty. Now you are talking! Same show, different ponies than in the 80's. Again, I don't think they are guaranteed by the US currency.

PP


Technically, you are right about Fannie Mae. However, because of 1. The fact that it is a gov't created institution almost 70 years old, and 2. It has a huge line of credit with the Treasury (2 billion dollars?), most investors treat it as government guaranteed. While there's no explicit guarantee, it seems as though most investment vehicles believe the US Gov't would not allow it to default. Would it? Who knows, but they've been bailed out before by the Gov't so it's not unlikely.
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Unread postby RonMN » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 07:28:08

Before we defaulted on bonds & allowed china to actually own US property because of bad debt...i would have to imagine that we would print it all up & pay in worthless (deflated) us dollars.

Again this would be nothing short of an act of war (economic terrorism) but atleast the american land would still belong to america.
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Unread postby frankthetank » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 09:48:32

A question i would have then is, if our borrowing needs grow (most likely!) and people (Japan, CHina) don't want worthless bonds, do they start asking for collateral...say...Yellowstone? :)
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Unread postby lowem » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 10:34:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'A') question i would have then is, if our borrowing needs grow (most likely!) and people (Japan, CHina) don't want worthless bonds, do they start asking for collateral...say...Yellowstone? :)


... and potentially have 2500 km2 of eruptible magma blow up in their faces? Hmmm .... :lol:

Well, the Japs did buy Rockefeller Center back in the 80's didn't they.
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Unread postby aahala » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 14:06:02

Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were chartered by the government and
have the same housing mandates and regulatory structure. Freddie was
never a federal agency, unlike Fannie.

Any debt offerings of either require the not guranteed by the government
disclaimer.

When Fannie was privatized, the Ginnie Mae functions were retained as
a federal agency. Ginnie Mae securities are backed by the full faith and
credit of the US government, so the rates they pay are almost always
lower than the rates on Fannie and Freddie Mac securities.
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Unread postby Ayoob_Reloaded » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 14:24:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', 'B')oth Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were chartered by the government and
have the same housing mandates and regulatory structure. Freddie was
never a federal agency, unlike Fannie.

Any debt offerings of either require the not guranteed by the government
disclaimer.

When Fannie was privatized, the Ginnie Mae functions were retained as
a federal agency. Ginnie Mae securities are backed by the full faith and
credit of the US government, so the rates they pay are almost always
lower than the rates on Fannie and Freddie Mac securities.


Neither GNM's or FNM's are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the US government. Both of them are private coporations. They have special favoritisms bestowed upon them as far as regulation goes.

The securities they issue are backed by a "moral obligation" by the US govt to pay them off if FNM or GNM default.
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Unread postby aahala » Sat 04 Jun 2005, 14:39:24

Reload

I think you have confused the private companies, Freddie and Fannie,
and the government agency Ginnie. Ginnie is a federal agency, and
any gurantee Ginnie makes runs against the government.

Ginnie gurantees the timely payment of interest and principal of
the securities, which the underlining home loans have been guranteed
or insured by other government agencies, primarily VA and FHA.
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