[SeaGypsy]

Stockpiling in expectation of Iran blowing up/ sanctions starting to bite.

[Cog]

This is obviously a world wide conspiracy to knock me out of first place.

[SeaGypsy]

You never know, you are right on the money for top if for some reason it all cooled down again, which it could, maybe, kind of, for a bit, sort of.

[Pops]

As of Valentines day.

--Hi--lo--close
--118.73 --108.38--113.30

1 Cog -- $114.00--$107.00--$114.00 = 6.81
2 Pops--$120.00--$100.00--$115.00= 11.35
3 Daniel_Plainview--$122.22 --$99.99--$111.11=14.07

[Pops]

Well looks like it's time to test my scientific line drawing skills. The price has "broken out" of my descending economic ceiling. Which means either the economy will stall or I'll eat some crow due to the leaky ceiling.





Notice though, the lines converge in December...

.

[Cog]

Looks like they converge around $115/bbl.

I should be ok until we start seeing prices around $125/bbl. Then the lead is going change hands quite quickly. I still have the low price working for me for now.

Actually with Brent at $121.35 right now, you might already have taken the lead.

[Pops]

Shoulda waited for the EIA to update LOL!

[dolanbaker]

I wouldn't worry about the crow, what you didn't take into account was the devaluation of currency by mass printing by the central banks; USD120 this year is worth the same as USD110 was last year.

[SteinarN]

Is it to late to enter a prediction here?

[Pops]

Naw go ahead, it's just a game.

[vtsnowedin]

To fill in your chart I'll go for high 172.25 Low 111.12 and close 142.00 Good chance we have already seen the low for the year.

[SteinarN]

Here is my guesses:
Low: 108
High: 137
Close: 131

[Beery1]

Since I missed this one and we're still allowed to chip in, here's mine:

High: 141
Low: 102
Close: 120

[eXpat]

I forgot about this, since there´s still time to post here are my guesses

Low: 105
High: 140
Close: 120

[careinke]

It looks like most of us are betting that things will calm down and saner heads will prevail. I'm beginning to wonder if we are showing signs of boiled frog syndrome.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'I')t looks like most of us are betting that things will calm down and saner heads will prevail. I'm beginning to wonder if we are showing signs of boiled frog syndrome.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 't')ype, high, low, close
Brent 134, 101, 115

[SeaGypsy]

Looks like a good spread of guesses. A serious run up at this time of year (usually somewhat of a lull) is a worrisome sign, obviously directly related to the ME situation. The rest of the year looks like being a wild race! For the first time I have noted MSM splashing stories about oil burden, Brent/ Tapis/ WTI spread and peak oil in the same article. Pops was onto this very early. It has now become the big thing in economic chatter. Things are changing fast in this regard; at least in Australia.
Is this being talked about in the MSM America?

[Pops]

Cogs still in the lead (alphabetically) with Dolan off our tie by only $0.08.

I should have sorted first on overall diff and next on high diff instead of name - LOL

Actually if you discount the closing price, which obviously changes daily, cog is ahead of me by $1(hi+lo diff column)

The yearly average is almost $115, $4 higher than last year.

I got you late-comers a little light, I'll fix 'er up next time

[Pops]

Dolan & Gypsy take over...






The average price since the beginning of the year...
$117.37/bbl
€89.11/bbl
!

And get this, the average price of Brent Crude for the last 365 days...
$114.00/bbl
€86.86/bbl


Don't forget that the US imports half it's oil and Brent is the gauge to use for floating oil - refiner acquisition costs for January in the US was $107/bbl +/- and the EIA has raised it's forecast to $115/bbl for the year.

Just for comparison, 2008 yearly real average was $95.57 and in 1980 (since the current prevarication is that year oil was really expensive)... in 1980 the real "stripper well*" price was $102.61 average for the year.

*Stripper well prices weren't regulated under the US price controls of the day so reflect better the actual value of oil in the day. Long boring article about price controls from CATO