[meemoe_uk]

While I'm here on the cornucopian annual reminder to the peak oil doom is now religion that peak oil isn't anywhere near happening yet, and you all fall back on other myths such as dwindling EROEI and economy based on $20pb oil, I'll just shoot down the ' we've been on a 10 year undulating plateau ' myth.

According to the IEA : Oil supply has been shooting up fast for at least 18 years. These figures are taken from the September issues of their world oil reports where possible.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/
use the 'see archives' box to get the world supply reports, which are usually around page 50.

World average oil supply by year. Millions of barrels per day average.
2011 : 88.45
2010 : 87.46
2009 : 85.06
2008 : 86.50
2007 : 85.70
2006 : 85.60
2005 : 84.46
2004 : 83.10
2003 : 79.70
2002 : 76.60
2001 : 76.91
2000 : 76.69
1999 : 74.06
1998 : 75.44
1997 : 74.39
1996 : 72.05
1995 : 69.94
1994 : 68.56
1993 : 67.45

Yep. Wouldn't surprise me if its one of the most continuous and fast rising supply runs in oil history.
To get the undulating plateau myth from these figures, doomers have to throw all manner of crap at them, under the banner of 'just about every type of oil is unconventional these days so doesn't count' .

The supply is expected to continue is rise at an accelerated rate for a few more years, what with the epic development in the middle east continuing, and the practically limitless reserves of shale and sand oil becoming economical, as by Kublikhan's graph.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'T')o get the undulating plateau myth from these figures, doomers have to throw all manner of crap at them, under the banner of 'just about every type of oil is unconventional these days so doesn't count' .

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'O')il is worth extracting up to around $10,000 a barrel. Oil is very cheap at $100, or even $200 a barrel. It's always been at least very cheap throughout history. The energy in a barrel of oil can move a 1 ton car 1600 miles in less than 36 hours.
You fancy doing this task using your back?
You think it's cheap to pay a man to move a car at this rate,
But expensive to use a $100 barrel of oil to do the same thing?

[Keith_McClary]

It would be interesting to look at various predictions from a few years ago to see which are closest to current conventional and total liquids production and prices.

[sparky]

.Meemo has a point, albeit a weak one
he poke fun at the " dry spigot " theory and that's fair enough
but oils ain't oils ,if one looks at the conventional crude as Hubbert did
" it float on water and come from the ground ,inland or close offshore"
then , yes we are well past the peak
the far offshore , tar sands and bio are pumping up the numbers
now we have fracking for gas and oil ,
the only reason this happened is because there is not enough left
all the geologist and all the traders couldn't get it out of the ground ,

[AirlinePilot]

It seems we have two camps here at Po.com. We have on one hand folks who understand the changing paradigm surrounding the peaking of global CRUDE OIL production. We have on the other hand the folks who dont seem to understand it. I would go so far as to say they DENY any attempt at understanding it.

Arguing for supplies of CRUDE OIL to grow is factually absurd at this point in history. Claiming that somehow counting apples, oranges, grapefruits, and several other types of "supply" make up the "picture" is patently absurd. It's also FACTUALLY INCORRECT. We all knew when we learned about this stuff that non conventional oil would play a role in mitigating the decline of CRUDE OIL. What we all seem to want to do is to poke each other in the eye about this or that in some vain attempt at "proving" we are right. It should be obvious at this point that most of us who understand peak oil, I.E. "not-doomers", have realized for quite some time that this sort of game would be played.

Having watched this debate for many years, I have to acknowledge that things are playing out as most of the "long emergency" types have predicted. The common cry of the cornies, that doomers were wrong, will work for some time longer. And then it wont. The facts support the picture that we are reaching a point where pedaling faster(drilling more, using tar and sand for oil, counting NGL's, etc.) will not result in more supply being brought to the table. Pointing to TOTAL LIQUIDS and claiming the doomers were wrong is only valid on a very short time-line. The fact that TOTAL LIQUIDS has to be used to even support that premise should be a flashing beacon that something just isn't correct with that line of reasoning.

Cornies should really be ashamed to even have to USE total liquids to come in to these forums and bleat like grade school children the the doomers were wrong. Its short sighted and sloppy to continue to parrot this garbage.

EROEI will matter, right now it doesn't for EXTRACTION, but it soon will, mark my words. When CRUDE OIL production moves off the plateau is when the realization comes. It wont happen until then and we appear to not quite be there yet. In the meanwhile the Corny premise holds sway with those who desperately wish for BAU to continue happily into the future.

Silly humans.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'h')ttp://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf
page 59

88.46mbpd average for 2011
That beats the previous record set by 2010 by 0.99mbpd.

biofuels were static this year. OPEC NGLs increased by 0.45mppd.

Cornucopian predictions have been shown to be correct again, continuing over a hundred years of correct predictions.
Peak oil is now predictions have been falsified again, continuing over a hundred years of failed predictions. ( when included with their predecessors the 'running outers' predictions. )

The flood of oil from the 2001 middle east oil bonanza is expected to increase for a few year to come, and keep the world economy supplied with plenty of oil for at least another 20 years. No oil shortage in sight.

Last years thread
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'A')nother year, another fail for the 'peakoil is now' gang.

But, this doesn't mean anything to a peaker.
Don't wobble in your beliefs about panic and hype about an imminent oil shortage crisis.
Let JD explain
Now you can have all the fun of hype and scare you had last year ( and year before that, and the decades before that..etc) all over again.

Because now.....
PEAK OIL WAS IN 2010!!!!
And this isn't like all the other times we think peak has happened. This time we really know for sure. There is absolutely no way conventional supply can top 2010. And this is time, it's not like dozens of other years that there's been absolutely no way that supply can go up. Oh no, THIS...IS...IT!!!

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'W')hile I'm here on the cornucopian annual reminder to the peak oil doom is now religion that peak oil isn't anywhere near happening yet, and you all fall back on other myths such as dwindling EROEI and economy based on $20pb oil, I'll just shoot down the ' we've been on a 10 year undulating plateau ' myth.

[ralfy]

One more point: from what I remember, earlier predictions looked at production levels far higher than the "flood" that we are seeing now. For example, in 2009 ARAMCO predicted that it would reach 15 mb/d by 2011:

http://www.thenational.ae/business/ener ... production

[meemoe_uk]

>What you seem to be missing is that many of the tasks that are economical to perform with $100 oil are not economical to perform at $10,000 oil.

What you seem to be missing is that dollars are a fiat currency. There were times in the 1st half of the 20th century Oil was 10 cents a barrel. How would you tell a kublikhan living in the 1930s depression that $20 oil was a really good price for a stable and prosperous economy? Wouldnt he say " There are many things that wouldn't be economical if the price was that high " ?
As long as it is easier to do stuff by using oil than without, then the economy and dollars would evolve around any oil price.

>Have you ever considered that you yourself belong to the religion of cornucopia?
Of course. But the most compelling evidence is that peakers have been wrong about 'peak oil doom about now!' for over a hundred years, while cornys have said 'nope, just improving prosperity'. This year is no different. New oil supply highs for 2011.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Bear in mind the EROEI figures that doomers come out with are highly biased in favour of doom, and are already taken from engineers worse case analysis, the EROEI of an average barrel is usually higher than 100:1.
Source? I want to know the truth of peak oil, not doomer or cornucopian dogma.

[meemoe_uk]

@ Airline pilot
Peak_oil_doom_is_now types should be ashamed of considering dismissing NGLs, shale, sand oil, reserve growth or whatever new source of oil crops up. The bottom line is - energy is energy. According to you lot oil was the only core energy source of today, and that all other energy sources were effectively deriviatives from crude oil, e.g. today's coal extraction is a massively amped, artifically highly productive business because it uses large scale oil fueled tools.
That epic doom isn't happening even though you lot insist peak CRUDE oil happened a while ago, or very soon, destroys the basis of any complaints you might have about cornys using other energy source in their oil charts. In other words if cornys are guilty of using non crude oil in their oil charts to show record amounts of oil supply, then the fact the 1st world civlization is same as usual, evidences that such inclusions are legit.

But, guess what? Crude oil supply is likely going up as well. So likely no need to invoke the above argument.
But from IEA data 'likely' is the best we can do. IEA oil figures include crude, bio and NGLs. Bio is explictly stated in the figures, so can be subtracted from the total. Without bio, world oil supply is still going up. But when it comes to NGLs, the IEA is a bit obscure. So the PO religion can hide behind this small obscurity and say " all new oil supply in the IEA figures is NGLs ", not that its a solid defense ( see above argument ).

[meemoe_uk]

>Not religion but confirmed by the same IEA a few months ago.
the undulating plateau myth is propagated by the IEA mass media hype department, while its fact and figure department reports the contrary.
The IEA is an agent of the oil and banking business, and duly parrots any scare and hype message they want injecting into the mass media.
It can have contrary operations like this because anyone savy with the oil industry knows the scare and hype is unfounded BS, and they also know that it has to be done to scare the market into amping the trading price of oil. ( fear of scarcity drives up prices ). Meanwhile the public aren't interested enough to compare the figures with the headlines, so just believe the headline.
As for the peak_oil_doom_is_now religion.... hmmm ... what they gonna go for? IEA scare and hype headlines or IEA figures saying everythings OK?

Get used to it. The IEA scare and hype headlines have always been as baseless as any doom-monger website headline.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to the IEA : Oil supply has been shooting up fast for at least 18 years. These figures are taken from the September issues of their world oil reports where possible.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/
use the 'see archives' box to get the world supply reports, which are usually around page 50.

World average oil supply by year. Millions of barrels per day average.
2011 : 88.45
2010 : 87.46
2009 : 85.06
2008 : 86.50
2007 : 85.70
2006 : 85.60
2005 : 84.46
2004 : 83.10
2003 : 79.70
2002 : 76.60
2001 : 76.91
2000 : 76.69
1999 : 74.06
1998 : 75.44
1997 : 74.39
1996 : 72.05
1995 : 69.94
1994 : 68.56
1993 : 67.45

[meemoe_uk]

If you ever bother reading the thread before posting vtsnowedin, you'd see
- we can keep plugging the gap with 'substitutes' . oil from Shale is plentiful and at only $50pb to produce, its cheap.
- Not that we need to. Most of the new supply is likely from the 2001 middle east crude oil bonanza, and there's a heck of lot more to come from that.
- The world economy is kept unstable my money changers. It's nothing to do with the supposed diminishing EROEI, or peaking of crude oil. Such ecomonies have been intentionally kept unstable for thousands of years.

The price of oil is controled by the energy cartel. It isn't a direct reflection of supply and demand. Your oracle, Matt Simmons , kept alluding to this when he said the market mechanism between supply and demand is broken.

Peak_oil_doomer 'have it both ways' rule
If oil price is low ; then the market mechanism between supply and demand is broken
If oil price is high ; its a true indication of oil value in the market

Actually, the market mechanism is permenantly broken. There's a different system in place.
Before 2020, oil prices will crash. Why?
With high oil prices, the oil industry is booming now, with start up companies flourishing along side the old establishment. Lots of new oil wells and supply.
But the old establishment don't want to create competition for themselves. So before these new competitor companies become too big, they will be felled by low oil prices. The old establishment control the price of oil on the markets, and at their convenience they will axe the dollar price of a barrel of oil. The competitors will then either face bankruptcy or consolidation. It's an old cycle that repeats every 40 years or so.

>First thing is it is a list of Production not of supply.
If so , and if there's a great difference between the 2, it just make the figures more compelling in what they say. 18 years of increasing oil production. But I don't thinks there's much difference, at least by IEA definitions.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '[')i]>What you seem to be missing is that many of the tasks that are economical to perform with $100 oil are not economical to perform at $10,000 oil.

What you seem to be missing is that dollars are a fiat currency. There were times in the 1st half of the 20th century Oil was 10 cents a barrel. How would you tell a kublikhan living in the 1930s depression that $20 oil was a really good price for a stable and prosperous economy? Wouldnt he say " There are many things that wouldn't be economical if the price was that high " ?
As long as it is easier to do stuff by using oil than without, then the economy and dollars would evolve around any oil price.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '
')
But, guess what? Crude oil supply is likely going up as well. So likely no need to invoke the above argument.
But from IEA data 'likely' is the best we can do. IEA oil figures include crude, bio and NGLs. Bio is explictly stated in the figures, so can be subtracted from the total. Without bio, world oil supply is still going up. But when it comes to NGLs, the IEA is a bit obscure. So the PO religion can hide behind this small obscurity and say " all new oil supply in the IEA figures is NGLs ", not that its a solid defense ( see above argument ).

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '[')i]>Not religion but confirmed by the same IEA a few months ago.
the undulating plateau myth is propagated by the IEA mass media hype department, while its fact and figure department reports the contrary.
The IEA is an agent of the oil and banking business, and duly parrots any scare and hype message they want injecting into the mass media.
It can have contrary operations like this because anyone savy with the oil industry knows the scare and hype is unfounded BS, and they also know that it has to be done to scare the market into amping the trading price of oil. ( fear of scarcity drives up prices ). Meanwhile the public aren't interested enough to compare the figures with the headlines, so just believe the headline.
As for the peak_oil_doom_is_now religion.... hmmm ... what they gonna go for? IEA scare and hype headlines or IEA figures saying everythings OK?

Get used to it. The IEA scare and hype headlines have always been as baseless as any doom-monger website headline.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'I')f you ever bother reading the thread before posting vtsnowedin, you'd see
- we can keep plugging the gap with 'substitutes' . oil from Shale is plentiful and at only $50pb to produce, its cheap.
- Not that we need to. Most of the new supply is likely from the 2001 middle east crude oil bonanza, and there's a heck of lot more to come from that.
- The world economy is kept unstable my money changers. It's nothing to do with the supposed diminishing EROEI, or peaking of crude oil. Such ecomonies have been intentionally kept unstable for thousands of years.

The price of oil is controled by the energy cartel. It isn't a direct reflection of supply and demand. Your oracle, Matt Simmons , kept alluding to this when he said the market mechanism between supply and demand is broken.

Peak_oil_doomer 'have it both ways' rule
If oil price is low ; then the market mechanism between supply and demand is broken
If oil price is high ; its a true indication of oil value in the market

Actually, the market mechanism is permenantly broken. There's a different system in place.
Before 2020, oil prices will crash. Why?
With high oil prices, the oil industry is booming now, with start up companies flourishing along side the old establishment. Lots of new oil wells and supply.
But the old establishment don't want to create competition for themselves. So before these new competitor companies become too big, they will be felled by low oil prices. The old establishment control the price of oil on the markets, and at their convenience they will axe the dollar price of a barrel of oil. The competitors will then either face bankruptcy or consolidation. It's an old cycle that repeats every 40 years or so.

>First thing is it is a list of Production not of supply.
If so , and if there's a great difference between the 2, it just make the figures more compelling in what they say. 18 years of increasing oil production. But I don't thinks there's much difference, at least by IEA definitions.

[vtsnowedin]

Meemo-UK
You might want to read some of this.
http://www.energy.alberta.ca/OilSands/791.asp
The projected production through 2020 is interesting. Notice it is not unlimited.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s of November 2011, there were more than 100 active oil sands projects in Alberta. Of these, six mining projects have been approved; five of these projects are currently producing bitumen. The remaining projects use various in-situ recovery methods.
By 2020, crude bitumen production is expected to more than double to 3.5 million bbl/d.
On average it takes about two tonnes of mined oil sands to produce a barrel of SCO.

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', '
')Peak_oil_doom_is_now types should be ashamed of considering dismissing NGLs, shale, sand oil, reserve growth or whatever new source of oil crops up. The bottom line is - energy is energy. According to you lot oil was the only core energy source of today, and that all other energy sources were effectively deriviatives from crude oil,