[copious.abundance]

Doomers are going to be using the lack of EIA data as an excuse to claim crude & condensates are still plateauing, even 5, 10 or more years from now, even if IEA close-proximates are clearly showing and end to the bumpy plateau and a clear leg upward. It's as predictable as the sun rising in the morning.

[meemoe_uk]

>How does a normally linear economic supply/price model fail so easily?
Because if oil supply hits it's maximum industrial capacity, it takes nearly a decade to bring oil from new wells from initially hostile countries ( e.g Iraq ) to the market.
You seem to be under the impression that if oil prices go up one month, next month swaths of new wells magically appear over oil fields around the world to keep the supply-price graph in check.

>Your continued ignorance of the fact that statistically we are on a plateau is surprising. Constant focus on such tiny increases in production is causing you to lose the forest for the trees.
There hasn't been in history a sustained increase in supply that didn't start with successive small increments. But now the only rise in supply you are willing recognise is what? An over night jump up of 10Mbpd?

[dolanbaker]

I get the impression that this jump in production is simply down to a bunch of projects that were started during the 2008 price spike, all coming on stream at the same time. If so then should we expect a sharp decline when they come to an end in the next year or so?

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'I') get the impression that this jump in production is simply down to a bunch of projects that were started during the 2008 price spike, all coming on stream at the same time. If so then should we expect a sharp decline when they come to an end in the next year or so?

[FarQ3]

Hang on a minute meemoe

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')indlessly opposing cornys, ignoring EIA and IEA data when it doesn't support you assertions

[meemoe_uk]

Fatih Birol "We think that the crude oil production has already peaked in 2006 "

The IEA figures obscure world crude production in their figures. The best that can be done is get world crude and none-opec NGLs combined which is a good proxy to crude.

I notice you didn't include Fatih's figures in your post farq3. I wonder why?

from http://omrpublic.iea.org/archiveresults ... full+issue
Fatih Birol's figures for oil supply 2006 and 2010
by year
2006 - 85.19Mbpd
2010 - 87.30Mbpd
More than 2Mbpd increase

by highest quarter
2006 (3rd ) - 85.52Mbpd
2010 ( 4th ) - 88.3Mbpd
More than 2.7Mbpd increase

Don't bother coming running up to me whining that it's not exclusively crude, phone Fatih Birol, it's his crazy idea not to explict crude.

Fatih Birol's words don't match his agencys figures.
But if I was a high salaried suit selected to work in an agency funded by the big oil companies, and they asked me to tell them what they wanted to hear about PO, then you'd find my words don't match my figures either.

Anyway, that online vid goes on to conclude from fatih's interview...
" No peak oil in sight " ( at 3:35 )
" Potentially 96Mpbd by 2035 " < as long as it's developed >. It sounds to me Fatih was saying it won't be geologic\natural issues which prevent future much higher supply of oil, but maybe political\economic.

It's just one of many PO hype pieces chucked into the media to fool as much of the market into the POisNow scam as possible.

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('meemoe_uk', 'P')otentially 96Mpbd by 2035 " < as long as it's developed >. It sounds to me Fatih was saying it won't be geologic\natural issues which prevent future much higher supply of oil, but maybe political\economic.

It's just one of many PO hype pieces chucked into the media to fool as much of the market into the POisNow scam as possible.

[meemoe_uk]

dsula, the answer to all 4 of your questions is 'no'.

[rangerone314]

I'm so glad oil supply is so high, it means that oil won't reach $100/bbl.

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '8')8.2mpd average for 4th quarter

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he point being; these fields represent the last major effort in SA, fields discovered in the 1960's but shut-in/inactive/held-in-reserve until now. Why? Because the fields are difficult to produce/sell. Khurais contains vanadium, Manifa is heavy, Shaybah is remote in the Rub' Al-Khali/Empty Quarter desert, etc.)

Difficulty translates to expensive (both monetarily and energetically) a characteristic of recent finds. Brazil/Angola/GOM ultra deep water, Caspian Kasagan, biofuels, other non-conventionals, newly/re-registered "reserves" like shale oil, tar sands, TDP, etc ll have their own attendant problems/inefficiencies that render production costs excessive and kill end-user demand in a cyclic fashion. The Law of Receding Horizons tells us this 'high-hanging fruit' will always be too expensive to satisfy our cheap-oil demands. The economy crashes when oil/gdp exceeds 4%.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ext time copywrite it.

[Doly]

This is an article of mine in The Oil Drum. I imagine you will all be interested in it in this board:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8103

[Graeme]

Solar Power Can Produce Most Of Our Electricity & Half Of All Our Energy By 2060: IEA

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nother projection on how much of our power could be produced by renewable energy: A new International Energy Agency assessment of solar power shows that photovoltaics and solar thermal power could provide "most" of the world's electricity and half of all our energy needs by 2060.


The solar findings, set to be published in a report later this year, go beyond the IEA's previous forecast, which envisaged the two technologies meeting about 21 percent of the world's power needs in 2050. The scenario suggests investors able to pick the industry's winners may reap significant returns as the global economy shifts away from fossil fuels. (Bloomberg)

[americandream]

They have been saying this for the last 20 years. I don't see investment flowing into startups. One I was involved in was an utter flop. Lots of money raised, many hopes and much money lost.

[Graeme]

IEA economist: ‘We have to leave oil before it leaves us’

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he International Energy Agency (IEA)’s annual World Energy Outlook, due for publication on 9 November, will contain alarming research that the world is on track for a catastrophic rise in global temperatures unless fossil fuel subsidies are cut, energy efficiency is improved, and more countries introduce some form of carbon pricing.


You’ve said in the past that you believe that the world has already passed its ‘peak oil’ moment – the point at which the amount of oil already used outweighs the amount left in the ground. How far past that moment do you think we are, and what are the economic and environmental consequences?

We have said that we have seen the peak of commercial oil. There is still uncommercial oil and other forms coming and we will definitely need oil for our mobility systems for cars, trucks and jets and for our economic daily life to continue. However, one day we will run out of oil - not tomorrow or the day after but one day we will. Given its strategic importance for our societies, it is important to prepare our societies for that very day and try to find alternatives to oil especially in transportation systems. These could be electric cars, hybrid cars, natural gas, or biofuels-driven cars, or putting more emphasis on mass transportation.

When we talk about CO2 emissions, people think directly about coal. But if you look at the numbers, the contribution of oil to global CO2 emissions is only a few percentage points lower than coal. Therefore it needs to be taken closely into consideration. We’re not running out of oil today or tomorrow but we need to prepare ourselves for the day that we do. We have to leave oil before it leaves us.