[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')
And speaking of GS, below is the "What If" page of the 2011 Oil Price Challenge which included GS, the EIA, and JohnRM:



GS ended up at #16 out of 44 players.

[Cog]

There is no reason to rub it in. This is 2012 not 2011. Your glory days are gone. Now comes the new era of winners and you aren't in that group.

[SeaGypsy]

Out of context completely. I only plugged it because someone here was busily posting my IQ as lacking the ability to discern between 'half flush' and 'flush' buttons.

BTW don't you think mid January is a little early to call it for 2012? I thought you knew a little better.

[Cog]

I am confident that the price of oil will stay within a $15 price band. Rigorous analysis went into this decision and a bunch of Keystone Light as well.

So enjoy your time in the sun SeaGypsy. A new generation of winners led by me, Kublikan, and Repent will lead you to true knowledge.

[SeaGypsy]

You may well be right on the money this year, I hope so, because some stability would be a good thing. I bet against again, because I think the band is still finding it's stretching limits.

[Revi]

If Iran closes the straights I think I'll be in the money this time. There is the possibility that could happen. I think the dollar tanked today, while oil went down. What's happening?

[PeakOiler]

I'll post a new scorecard next week. The EIA will have data to the end of January.

Repent has been in first all month. Those who were predicting low volatility have been correct, so far. The range through Jan 25 was only $4.74.

[SteinarN]

I have noticed the very low volatility so far. I don't know how it was this time last year. However there is plenty of time left for increased volatility. About $15 to 20 each way would be fine

[SeaGypsy]

It's Mexican standoff while BAU continues somewhat. A race to the bottom for fiat currencies. The Dollar or the Euro tanks 1st? Last man standing really for the time being isn't it? No way known this will hold.

[Cog]

I need a small crisis that is easily resolved in a day or two.

[PeakOiler]

The first month is already over. Here's the latest scorecard:



Repent held the #1 spot all month. Let's hear it for a steady state! lol

[Beery1]

After the first furlong, it's still Repent in the lead by a few lengths, followed by Cog closing the gap, then Kublikhan in third place, with Expat and TheAntiDoomer close behind the leaders. Then it's Daniel Plainview in sixth, closely followed by Roryrules passing JDMartin and Pops and making up some early ground on the inside. In tenth place it's SeaGypsy, winner of the last two years' Oil Price Challenge Sweepstakes and the odds-on favourite.

I love horse racing! It's weird how so many of the names actually sound like racehorses.

If this were the Grand National, they'd be heading towards Beecher's Brook for the first time right about now.

[SeaGypsy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'T')he first month is already over. Here's the latest scorecard:



Repent held the #1 spot all month. Let's hear it for a steady state! lol

[careinke]

Well I'm guessing basel hayden wins if Israel attacks Iran.

[SeaGypsy]

The hole in Basil's bet is that if he was right on the high, his close is very conservative. If it goes there, we are either looking at bumping up to a whole new level or demand destruction, neither of which bode for a relatively benign end.

[Beery1]

I guess Repent's strategy (lowest high, highest low) was based on the idea of the Apocalypse happening in the first quarter and cementing him in place as the winner at the time of the Rapture. Personally, I'm surprised he's lasted into February.

Some of the more interesting ones: Basil_Hayden has the highest high and a 15% gain on the close- maybe he's looking for a late-year peak and most of the demand destruction happening in 2013? Midessa has the widest range, the lowest low and the lowest close on the table, so he's looking for an interesting year, ending with either an oil glut or a Depression - I can't tell which.

[PeakOiler]

According to the Dukascopy Bank "ticker" for WTI,
http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
it appears a new low of about $96.62 was set last week and a Friday closing price of about $97.82.

CNNMoney Commodities reported a floor closing price of $97.84 on Friday.

http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/

We'll have to see what the EIA reports this next Wednesday.

If the new low is about $96.62, that would result in Repent's lead shrinking and Cog only $2.00 behind.

Beery1: Yeah, the horse race analogy is appropriate. I wonder when and if the "fireworks" might appear around the racetrack and radically change the standings. ???

[PeakOiler]

Repent has been #1 all year so far, but Cog closed the lead when a new low of $96.36 was set on Feb. 2nd and as of Feb. 7th, Cog is only $1.28 behind...

btw, rshizzle is no longer in last place...

I have a feeling there will be a lead change soon...

[Beery1]

The problem is, Repent owns everything from 97.5 to 105. As long as it stays in that band, he leads. As of now, the price is exactly back where it was at the beginning of the year - so he could retain the lead for another month or more.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', 'T')he problem is, Repent owns everything from 97.5 to 105. As long as it stays in that band, he leads. As of now, the price is exactly back where it was at the beginning of the year - so he could retain the lead for another month or more.