[Enquest]

Hello,

I'm following the topic Peak Oil. Every day I think diffrently about it. One day I think we are doomed the next I think won't be as bad afteral in '80 we only needed 60 mil barels a day and that was prety good living.
However the next day I think there will be a global monitarian crises and economic meltdown.

What ever that will happen peak oil will come as a shock.

I need advise:
I'm only working a few years and have no debts. I rent my home (Europa) and have a small job in IT. I live close to my job with public transport. My biggest problem is that I'm unable to buy a hous as my savings arn't even over 25 thousand $ . That means in crisis I will lose my job and be unable to buy a house.

If I buy know a house then I will lose it also in the crises because of the debt, inflation etc.

What should I do. I tend to plan for the following. Wait for the first economic downturn. I suspect a lot of people will be forced out of there home because they can't pay mortage. So the housing prices wil tumble down down down. Then I maybe can buy a small house with garden of the money I saved.

Is this a realistic scenario? What would you do in my place? I think owing a house will be essential to survive the collaps.
Will money first be devaluted before the real estate market collapses?

[heyhoser]

My advice is worth as much as you've paid for it, but yeah, I agree with trying to own a small home so you can have a garden. What country are you in?

[linlithgowoil]

why do you think owning a house will be essential? and anyway, you won't own it outright - you'll likely have a big mortgage on it, which you may default on if unemployment goes up.

i'm not really sure what my advice is to someone who has savings but no debt. dont get into debt would be a good one. as for protecting your savings? no idea. they could be worthless overnight as has happened to many people in past crashes. maybe you should buy something 'tangible' with your money? try to think of stuff that people will need soon. no idea really.

im pretty thankful for my current situation - although i have a LOT of debt (about £25,000 worth - paid off by end 2010... hah! right! ), i am in a secure rented house from a local housing association. if i lose my job, the government pays my rent and council tax. i cannot lose my house, unless i breach the terms of the lease by, say, vandalising it or burning it down - needless to say, im not going to do these things.

i'd be shitting my pants if i lived in the US though - you guys have almost no social conscience over there and, from my experience, when you see a guy who is poor you have no sympathy at all - which appears to be reflected in your total lack of social welfare programs.

[RonMN]

Take any advice with a huge pinch of salt...none of us can fortell the future...that said:

Have you looked at bare land? would it be possible to use that 25,000 for a few acres & buy it outright with no mortgage?

If electricity & nat-gas go out...a log cabin would be just as good (if not better) than a modern home. And no need to live there right now...you could get a jump on planting fruit & nut tree seedlings on it (while you're still living in your rental place).

Just an idea...good luck & keep studying!!! PO only gets MORE INTERESTING!

[gnm]

Newsflash Linlithgow - social welfare doesn't create any more money or goods - So you really think if TSHTF your goverment is going to continue paying for you to sit in your apartment sucking the collective redistribution teat? Theres no difference between socialism (redistribution) and theft. PERIOD. Government takes from me, under threat of force, and reditributes to whoever they think need it more... ie THEFT. Or I guess you could call it extortion, whichever you like best...

btw the US has a HUGE social welfare system and is really not that much different from the UK in that sense, medicare, medicaid, low income housing, welfare, social security, etc....

C'mon is it really neccesary to make a broad flamebait statement like "the US has no social conscience, no sympathy for the poor etc"? - Jeez... And btw I have been to Scotland, have you even been here?

-G

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'T')heres no difference between socialism (redistribution) and theft. PERIOD. Government takes from me, under threat of force, and reditributes to whoever they think need it more... ie THEFT. Or I guess you could call it extortion, whichever you like best...

[gnm]

I fail to see how being opposed to government theft and redistribution means no social conscience or sympathy for the poor. There were many charitable organizations devoted to helping the poor before the current massive (and I may add) wasteful bueracratic "solution"... Keep in mind that those tax dollars are going to fund the war machine as well as the local clinic.... And if socialized healthcare works so well then why do wealthy Canucks come to the USA so they don't have to deal with it there...

I am talking about comparative definition here - Please explain how it is not theft or extortion. Any tax on income is theft. Tax on purchases can be protested by not purchasing , barter, etc.

That being said in general I agree with your economic assesment. One thing that I think about though, if we go into a severe inflationary period would holding debt be that bad? Assuming option 3 didn't happen as a result.

-G

[Enquest]

And what about the idea to buy when the economy goes in heavy recession. I gues then it will be a bargain to buy and the money system will still be valued. I live in Belgium/Netherland.

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'I') fail to see how being opposed to government theft and redistribution means no social conscience or sympathy for the poor. There were many charitable organizations devoted to helping the poor before the current massive (and I may add) wasteful bueracratic "solution"... Keep in mind that those tax dollars are going to fund the war machine as well as the local clinic.... And if socialized healthcare works so well then why do wealthy Canucks come to the USA so they don't have to deal with it there...

[RG73]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', 'A')ny tax on income is theft. Tax on purchases can be protested by not purchasing , barter, etc.

[Russian_Cowboy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'i')'d be shitting my pants if i lived in the US though - you guys have almost no social conscience over there and, from my experience, when you see a guy who is poor you have no sympathy at all - which appears to be reflected in your total lack of social welfare programs.

[gnm]

RG, Paying "rent" implies that we serve the government not the other way around. Last I check most of those things could be covered and are covered with fees, licensing, property tax, fuel tax, food tax, medical tax etc. You really think the government has done such an efficent job of spending that they need the income tax also? What the hell would be wrong with a fair, sales based tax. Then you and I wouldn't be FORCED to act as unpaid CPA for the government and effectively testify against ourselves - we could also cut out the massive bloat that is the IRS.

Oh and its not an "idea" that the income tax is theft - it simply is.... just because you happen to like it doesn't change that...

-G

Russian - I think there are areas like that here as well - particularly in big cities...

Sorry to hijack the thread... I will refrain from any further posts to this topic..

[marko]

There are actually two discussions going on here, the request for advice by Enquest, and an appraisal of the radical libertarian philosophy offered by gnm and, in a more guarded way, by the Republican Party currently in control of the USA. Since I find the latter morally repugnant and a distraction from the thread introduced by Enquest, I will ignore it. {bold added by Tyler_JC, let's stay on topic people!}
Enquest, I am in much the same position as you: Only a few years into my career, no debt, and some savings but not enough to buy much real estate at current prices. The main difference is that I live in the USA, while you live in Euro-land.

I agree with you that we are going to have an economic collapse. However, I think that the USA and East Asia are going to suffer the worst, because their financial systems and economies are especially unbalanced. What we will have in the USA will be a collapse of the debt bubble, which almost certainly will mean a collapse of real estate prices, an economic depression probably worse than the 1930s, and probably, at least at first, general deflation. For this reason, I am keeping most of my savings in cash. What is unclear is whether the dollar will collapse, and so I have to hedge by holding other currencies.

You are lucky to live in Europe, because Europe is less dependent on exports to the US market than Asia is. Europe will probably have a deep recession and deflation, which means that your cash will be worth more, especially when it comes to real estate. Also, the value of the euro will probably rise, if anything, when Euro-land proves to be the safest place to invest. So you can probably just hold onto your euros.

My goal is to buy land if and when prices come down. I am less interested in the house because I can live in a tent while I build one, if necessary. Even in Europe, there will be a severe economic recession, and you may be out of work and want to grow your own food. After a period of partial recovery, peak oil is likely to hit really hard and even more people will be out of work. At that point, having enough land to be able to grow a fair percentage of one's own food, and possibly an additional crop for sale or barter, will be very valuable. So think about buying at least a hectare of land outside of a town.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'w')hy do you think owning a house will be essential? and anyway, you won't own it outright - you'll likely have a big mortgage on it, which you may default on if unemployment goes up.

i'm not really sure what my advice is to someone who has savings but no debt. dont get into debt would be a good one. as for protecting your savings? no idea. they could be worthless overnight as has happened to many people in past crashes. maybe you should buy something 'tangible' with your money? try to think of stuff that people will need soon. no idea really.

im pretty thankful for my current situation - although i have a LOT of debt (about £25,000 worth - paid off by end 2010... hah! right! ), i am in a secure rented house from a local housing association. if i lose my job, the government pays my rent and council tax. i cannot lose my house, unless i breach the terms of the lease by, say, vandalising it or burning it down - needless to say, im not going to do these things.

i'd be shitting my pants if i lived in the US though - you guys have almost no social conscience over there and, from my experience, when you see a guy who is poor you have no sympathy at all - which appears to be reflected in your total lack of social welfare programs.

[linlithgowoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ewsflash Linlithgow - social welfare doesn't create any more money or goods - So you really think if TSHTF your goverment is going to continue paying for you to sit in your apartment sucking the collective redistribution teat? Theres no difference between socialism (redistribution) and theft. PERIOD. Government takes from me, under threat of force, and reditributes to whoever they think need it more... ie THEFT. Or I guess you could call it extortion, whichever you like best...

btw the US has a HUGE social welfare system and is really not that much different from the UK in that sense, medicare, medicaid, low income housing, welfare, social security, etc....

C'mon is it really neccesary to make a broad flamebait statement like "the US has no social conscience, no sympathy for the poor etc"? - Jeez... And btw I have been to Scotland, have you even been here?

[Enquest]

@marko

I think also there will be two waves of crashing. However I think that europe will be just as bad as U.S.A. in economical terms. The major diffrence is that we stil have some structure left due or middevel town layouts and farming. However I don't believe that the part of Europe where I live can feed it self. They need cheep imports to feed.
My contry is almost one city.

And then the politicians they are plain stupid and don't think about the problems that will come. Or kapitalistic system was great to create wealth, but it will be the wrong system for pot-peak world. We need a community system. People arn't ready for that, and won't be ready post-peak as they will be to busy with bashing each other head.

However maybe it won't be so hard just a big and slow recession. Afteral when the world was using 50 mil barrels a day it wassn't a bad place to live. But if you have a recession like that you wan't to have real estate and no debts so that you can live very cheap. Now I have to pay rent al the time. Buying a house means a mortage for over 20 to 40 year wich is completly crazy!

So again how do I solve the problem peak oil. I feel previledged by knowing what is comming but frustrated I don't have the recourses to take my desteny in my hands.

Enqust
PS. there arn't any very rich people on this forum who can give me some money?

[heyhoser]

Have you ever considered immigrating to another country in the EU? Or maybe just working there in a smaller village (for example near Augsburg, Germany, a large city surrounded by farmland)? Of course, maybe you'd be kicked out or isolated when TSHTF...???? But perhaps you could rent a small cottage somewhere like Elgau or Oberndorf a. Lech (in between Augsburg and Donauworth on a train line) and start a large garden in the back?
Or, if you can make a living and afford it now, move near Brno in the Czech Republic or Bratislavia, Slovakia and buy a cottage in the country and get a residency permit? I guess it all depends on what your profession is....

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o again how do I solve the problem peak oil. I feel previledged by knowing what is comming but frustrated I don't have the recourses to take my desteny in my hands.