[PeakOiler]

Daniel_Plainview: Graeme would have to post his guess. I know he stated in the other thread that he would go with the Goldman Sachs estimate for a price, but he didn't mention a low or closing price, neither did the GS estimate state whether that would be the average price or the high price.

And speaking of GS, below is the "What If" page of the 2011 Oil Price Challenge which included GS, the EIA, and JohnRM:



GS ended up at #16 out of 44 players.

[Cog]

Let us end the entries, as I can not muster the same love and respect for those who enter after the 8th as those who did prior to the 8th.

[JohnRM]

I'm not going to over-think this. Barring a black swan...

High: $125
Low: $85
EOY: $110

[Quinny]

Am I too late?

High: 135
Low 90
EOY 107

[SeaGypsy]

What about last year when he waited until August!

[PeakOiler]

I reviewed the 2011 PO.com oil price challenge thread and no_name guessed on Jan-13, jdmartin guessed on Jan-15, dorlomin guessed on Feb-3, and JohnRM on Aug-3.

pup55 (the laid back judge) felt that August was too late.

So JohnRM and Quinny are in, unless overruled.

Edit: I also added Repent's steady-state guesses of $100 and Repent was actually #1 as of the first report. The spreadsheet posted above was in error. I repent!

[SeaGypsy]

That's funny, from a $557 spread to $zero in one year.
Already this year is heating up to be volatile aplenty, enjoy the lead while it lasts Repent!

[Revi]

I think the Brent/WTI spread is supposed to get closer this year. That could change some guesses.

[SeaGypsy]

According to who? I have been reading a bunch of forcasts about this year's economics, didn't come across anything about that. A lot of what I have been reading strikes me as complete bollocks, coming from some very 'distinguished' financial houses. Unless people suddenly stop flying around, the Brent spread will continue.

[Pops]

Again, WTI isn't the price of oil, it's a "benchmark", a starting place, a method of "price discovery" about oil in tanks at Cushing, OK, USA. Start with WTI price, then add or subtract for weight and contaminants, add some more for transport, etc. Since there is more oil at Cushing than can be used or transported the price is lower than the world average "refiner acquisition cost" and even the average cost to US refiners since not all buy oil from Oklahoma - don't let 'em fool ya, we still import a lot of oil.


Finite Earth

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he value of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark crude was about $11 per barrel below the U.S. refiner acquisition cost of crude oil in the third quarter of this year, the Outlook noted.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot prices fell from an average of $110 per barrel in April to $86 per barrel in August, and remained near this level through October.

Some background: For most of the last 30 years, WTI has traded at a premium over the average U.S. refiner acquisition cost of crude oil. However, the growth in crude oil supply, particularly from Canada and North Dakota, to the midcontinent region where WTI is traded, has not yet been matched by increases in transportation capacity out of the Midwest to the refining centers, such as the Gulf Coast. This transportation bottleneck contributes to the large price discount for WTI relative to other U.S. and world crude oils. After reaching a record price discount in the third quarter of this year, the discount for WTI is now expected to diminish modestly as the flow of crude oil out of the mid-continent region increases.

[SeaGypsy]

Pops, how much kerosene comes out of Cushing compared to Brent? I assumed the spread was due to the relative lightness?

[Revi]

WTI used to be the benchmark crude, but now it's being mixed with a bunch of junk like tar sands, so maybe that lowers the sweetness and therefore the price. Plus it's stranded in Oklahoma until they get a pipeline down to the gulf coast.

[Pops]

I'm not sure about that Gypsy, the APIs are close. The big difference is that the WTI delivery point is smack in the middle of the continent whereas the Brent price is more reflective of "seagoing" oil, in fact, Louisiana Light crude FOB in the GOM is closer to Brent than WTI for that reason even though it's slightly heavier.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USCRLLSS:IND

The reason for the big spread between Brent and WTI is too much oil in storage in Cushing due to less driving and shale growth not having an outlet to the gulf. It's temporary, not sure how temporary...


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crude_oil_products

[PeakOiler]

Since there were revisions to some of the guesses and a few more players added to the list, here is the latest scorecard:

[Cog]

This will go hard on you Repent. You and kublikhan both.

So help me Cog.

[Beery]

So now everyone's well and truly out of the gate. The race is on!

[rshizzle]

Dead last. Yeah baby!

[lper100km]

Be thankful! If you're still there at the end of the year, we all will be.

[jdmartin]

Sigh...started in 5th, down to 7th, probably on my way to the basement. Though that's good for me personally. I try to structure my guess so that either way I win, either in here or in real life :D

[careinke]

This is the highest place I have ever held. I'm sure it won't last.