[SteinarN]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'N')ope, we have until the 7th or is the 4th the deadline? Anyway it's inside week 1 I think that's supposed to be ok, if anyone knows it would be Pup55

[wyllydtron]

High 129
Low 89
Close 108

Hope I'm not too late

[PeakOiler]

No, you were not too late, wyllydtron. Welcome aboard.

The deadline is Sunday, the 8th of Jan. Others can join in after the deadline, but they will receive a proportionate less amount of love and respect from the other players...

If a player really guesses way late, then it will be up to the laid back judge (pup55) to decide if the poster will be included in the "official" standings!

Here's the initial standings after just two days reported by the EIA (for the 3rd and the 4th of Jan):

[Cog]

Since the deadline is the 8th.

I would like to modify my guesstimates once again.

***Change guess****

Hi $110
Lo $95
Close $ 100

[Cog]

Here is my underlying assumptions about a very tight oil price range $15.

1) In spite of the bluster, Iran will not close the Straights of Hormuz
2) There will be no oil sanctions against Iran from the EU at the end of the day.
3) Economic growth in the EU and USA will be very slow or null
4) Economic growth in India and China will slow, although they will continue to mop up any available excess oil production.
5) The SPR will be used freely to cushion any oil crisis. This is an election year.
6) $95/bbl is the price at which any futher increase in price will result in demand destruction.

[SeaGypsy]

Not so sure Cog, I reckon you're a bit far out on the limb.
1/ Just the buildup in Hormuz has spiked the price by $6 since NYE.There is no reason to think this is about to wane in influence.
2/ Sanctions from EU will become mandatory when/ if war actually breaks out, the US will ensure physical blockade regardless.
3/ Growth nulled in 1st world creates if anymarket void at all one that can easily fed by the rest of the burgeoning world's wish to stock up on piddling rserves. I'm pretty damn sure about my low again being repeated on this basis.
4/ Slow growth among the 2.5 billion you mention is still growth and there are another billio+ bringing up the rear in economic status in the rest of the world.
5/ SPR has been trying to keep prices in a much narrower ban than I predicted, who was right?
6/ %95 is wishfull thinking and already below likely market average for the forseeable. Brent price drag for the light end of your sludge oil will ensure anything under $100 is now 'good times'

[Cog]

What is life without taking some risks?

[wisconsin_cur]

I'll also roll the dice with a minority read on the future.

Decreased demand in Asian and Europe plus a soft winter in the United States will cause oil prices to fall significantly. I will be able to buy diesel for 2.00 a gallon over the course of the year. For the year the oil high price will be 109.83, low will be 42.15 and on Dec 31, 2012 the price will be on its way back up (the decline of cheap oil will still dominate the price trend and will start to show itself in earnest in 2013) at 84.16.

[ColossalContrarian]

Since we have until the 8th I would like to bump my low up to $88....

So the new prediction is:

High: 136
Low: 88
Close: 119

[PeakOiler]

I revised Cog's and ColossalContrarian's guesses and added wisconsin_cur in the spreadsheet. Welcome aboard wisconsin_cur.

If anyone wants a copy of the spreadsheet, send me a PM.

Only two days until the deadline.

[Revi]

I'm going with a high of 157, a low of 80 and a closing of $100.

We'll see if it works this year. Third time's the charm.

[Roryrules]

Ok, I'm pretty new to all this, nevertheless I reckon 2012 will see fairly volatile oil prices due to the economic problems in the Eurozone and tensions in the Gulf. However, the economic recovery in the US and strong growth in China should be enough counteract the effects of the slump in Europe.

So all in all, 2012 will be pretty similar to what we've seen over the past couple of years; variable, but not record breaking.

High $120
Low $ 88.50
Close $ 100

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', '
')
Only two days until the deadline.

[Rod_Cloutier]

2012 election year in the US; so pressure to keep oil prices suppressed, vs. panic buying by all the 2012 end of the world nuts.

= my prediction that BAU price hovers around $100 all year.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Low 95.09
Close 108.41
High 115.07

[Cog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', '2')012 election year in the US; so pressure to keep oil prices suppressed, vs. panic buying by all the 2012 end of the world nuts.

= my prediction that BAU price hovers around $100 all year.

[PeakOiler]

I added Roryrules and Daniel_Plainview to the list and revised Plantagenet's high guess. I'll post another scorecard after the EIA releases their report later this week.

Come on Graeme, JohnRM and MD, y'all can still play...it's not that far past the deadline.

[davep]

They're too chicken...

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'C')ome on Graeme

[Revi]

Good guess Graeme. It's probably about right, except for the low for the year, which we may have already hit around $100.