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Roads Post Peak

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby Lore » Sat 31 Dec 2011, 21:28:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'W')ill these places have the resources in workers, power and material to do so is the question? It's not that they can't, but if they could.


How much resources do you think it takes to melt some aluminum, cast it, grind it, cut some threaded holes and screw it to a bike frame?
This isn't even advanced machine work here.

You bring up rationing back in WWII; you know what was the hardest thing to get? TIRES. It wasn't the crafted metal in anything, the screws, the car, the motor; it was the dang TIRES. Fortunately, bike tires, ridden on gently, last for a long time, and tubes can be patched over and over.


Think it through, where would you get the proper aluminum alloy and tool steal. That same alloy may now be more valuable and have more important uses else ware, or it may be on limited allocation altogether. Much of the mechanism is stamped, not cast, so you would need to mill those parts too. That is unless you had a several ton hydraulic stamp press. Now, can I count on the guy who can do this showing up tomorrow? I'm on 8 hours of electrical usage. Is that the best use of my power of what is now very expensive resource. What you end up with is a part too expensive to import and too difficult and expensive to make locally.

People will walk more in such a future because the alternatives will be just too expensive or impractical for where they live.

You're wrong about WW2, almost everything needed for the war effort was on allocation. People sacrificed from growing victory gardens to tin foil.
Last edited by Lore on Sat 31 Dec 2011, 21:32:45, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 31 Dec 2011, 21:30:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'T')he sophistication of manufactured goods in a post peak oil environment really depends on how you view that world to exist. As the slope steapens downwards, so do the limits on choices and priorities.

Paved roads become dirt roads, dirt roads become paths. Some roads will just no longer exist at all. Mechanicals will follow in kind.

A skilled metal craftsman with a good example could probably make a lot of things, that is if he has the equipment, electrical power and the right raw material. Which may be a challenge in a world on limited allocation.

Just how far forward are you looking?

100 years, 200 years or after some great die-off, As I'm certain that the decline will be nothing like that you've described in my lifetime.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby Lore » Sat 31 Dec 2011, 21:40:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'T')he sophistication of manufactured goods in a post peak oil environment really depends on how you view that world to exist. As the slope steapens downwards, so do the limits on choices and priorities.

Paved roads become dirt roads, dirt roads become paths. Some roads will just no longer exist at all. Mechanicals will follow in kind.

A skilled metal craftsman with a good example could probably make a lot of things, that is if he has the equipment, electrical power and the right raw material. Which may be a challenge in a world on limited allocation.

Just how far forward are you looking?

100 years, 200 years or after some great die-off, As I'm certain that the decline will be nothing like that you've described in my lifetime.


As I said, you only have to put yourself in the similar circumstances of 65 years ago. That's still within a living lifetime. It doesn't take much to tip the scales. In fact we are probably more vulnerable now in our technologically and interdependent world.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 31 Dec 2011, 21:51:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'T')hink it through, where would you get the proper aluminum alloy and tool steal.


?proper? We're talking bike parts here. Cans, old bike frames, broken wheel rims, old car doors, etc etc, blah blah. And it doesn't take special steel to grind aluminum. Even tapping the holes for the screws, any ole steel will do for cutting into aluminum.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')uch of the mechanism is stamped, not cast, so you would need to mill those parts too.


Current practice required to make mass quantity of a consumer part suitable for shipping by the thousands overseas, is not the same as required process to make singles. Casting would do just fine for a bicycle part. It probably wouldn't be as pretty or as light, but it'd be serviceable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople will walk more in such a future because the alternatives will be just to expensive or impractical for where they live.


You've still not described anything that will stop me from making and selling bike parts. If its to expensive or impractical to make a bicycle part, there is no point in walking out your door, because there will be nothing else there to sell or buy either.

I'm sure some will walk, in fact, none of the distances I initially listed are walking prohibitive; especially in a world where its not even possible to make bike parts. I suspect though, that annoying people like me will make bike parts, and sell them, and ride on them, until the time that people forget how to melt metal.

Perhaps you could describe to me the goods and services that would be available for purchase in a town where it is not even possible to make a bike part; but I'm just not seeing it. At least not outside the 90+% die off scenarios...
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby Lore » Sat 31 Dec 2011, 22:16:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')
You've still not described anything that will stop me from making and selling bike parts. If its to expensive or impractical to make a bicycle part, there is no point in walking out your door, because there will be nothing else there to sell or buy either.


Now you're getting the point. Don't believe me? Here's a challenge for ya, take that part to your local machine shop and ask them how much it will cost you for them to make a one off. Better yet, ask them if they can reproduce it accurately with reliability from old cans and broken wheel rims. Remember they still have cheap access to all the things they need to do it.

As I've repeated here already, you don't need a 90% die off for people to adjust their choices for transportation where it becomes too expensive or impractical to continue traveling in their old mode. In many cases, like oil itself, it's not that there will be none, it will be just too costly to use.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 31 Dec 2011, 22:53:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'N')ow you're getting the point. Don't believe me? Here's a challenge for ya, take that part to your local machine shop and ask them how much it will cost you for them to make a one off.


Should be about $500-$1000. Which represents about 10 hrs of labor and depreciation on equipment. Entirely affordable as a primary mode of transportation.
That said, I don't think they'd be willing to quote or do it at all at this point; its entirely to odd of a request to take seriously. As long as international shipping runs, and shimano cranks out cranks and other goodies; no one outside a doomer forum could even conceive of the concept of using a full machine shop to make something mass produced like a derailluer.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')etter yet, ask them if they can reproduce it accurately with reliability from old cans and broken wheel rims. Remember they still have cheap access to all the things they need to do it.


Why do I need accurately? I don't need awesome performance post-peak, I need a gearing that produces 12mph at 92rpm. I'd *LIKE* to be able to sit at 8mph at 92rpm, and put a little into it and get 15mph at 92rpm; which is a basic three-speed configuration. Don't move the ball on me. I only need bike parts sufficient to cause a reasonable person to choose to bike rather than walk. And a crappy three speed does it in spades. I also don't think a modern machine shop would be interested in melting down cans and scrap. So its quite a odd line to pursue.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s I've repeated here already, you don't need a 90% die off for people to adjust their choices for transportation where it becomes too expensive or impractical to continue traveling in their old mode. In many cases, like oil itself, it's not that there will be none, it will be just too costly to use.


I'm saying that you can not feed 90% of the people currently alive, in a world where it is impossible or impractical for a person to make bike parts. It has nothing to do with choice. The food WILL NOT BE THERE. A loaf, not for $50, not for $50,000. It simply will not be there to buy. The grain will never have arrived in town, it will never have been milled, it will never have been shipped, it will never have been even grown.

My challenge to you is to demonstrate a world where it is possible for all these folks to eat, but impossible for me to make bike parts. Cause I sure as heck can't come up with one.

Now, if you'd like to join me in the parlour of the bottleneck, then come on in... but placid walkable towns, aren't part of that future. Only the nightmare waits there.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 31 Dec 2011, 23:13:59

I wonder if I'm getting to far off by giving merit to the in extremis position. I really see no reason that Shimano and others would ever stop making bicycle parts to begin with; nor any reason to suspect that the most efficient form of goods transport would ever cease; given that we had ocean shipping before we had fossil fuel powered anything.

They may be more expensive of course, but right now, a derailluer is maybe $50 and a car transmission is a couple grand...
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby Lore » Sat 31 Dec 2011, 23:28:12

I can appreciate that they wouldn't even attempt to make the part as presented. Since I've been in this field of work, I'd also suggest that your estimate is way low. You have to look at the logic you're applying here as well. If they won't make the part for a reasonable price while all the resources are cheaply available, why would they then consider doing it when they're not? If anything, scarcity would drive the price even higher.

I don't disagree that less then optimal replacement parts will be cobbled together by a multitude of handymen.

I'm saying if you want to feed 90% of the population, or at least attempt to, then you better be allocating those resources left to doing just that. As in my example of WW2. We still fed our nation while John Boy was walking bare footed to school.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby Lore » Sat 31 Dec 2011, 23:36:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'I') wonder if I'm getting to far off by giving merit to the in extremis position. I really see no reason that Shimano and others would ever stop making bicycle parts to begin with; nor any reason to suspect that the most efficient form of goods transport would ever cease; given that we had ocean shipping before we had fossil fuel powered anything.

They may be more expensive of course, but right now, a derailluer is maybe $50 and a car transmission is a couple grand...


Maybe because in a post peak world shipping would be curtailed to essential goods? Specially in nations like Japan.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 31 Dec 2011, 23:58:25

Arggg.. debating the value of an unquotable part, how'd we get here.

This line is going so weird, let me try again to describe my point.

In regular towns and city cores, as they exist today, almost all services and goods that a person needs are generally within a five mile radius, often much less (2.5 miles for me). At those distances, the difference in ease of travel between walking, and riding even a low-speed geared fixed-gear bicycle is amazing.

There is no technology involved in creating and maintaining such a bicycle that would be beyond the capabilities of an economic zone capable of selling bread in stores.

Thus, while some will prefer to walk, as they do now, no one that prefers to ride a bike will be excluded from riding a bike. They might not all be able to afford imported or high end domestic components, but then again, before fossil fuel transport not all were able to afford traveling even a few hundred miles.

Maybe that's better stated?
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 01 Jan 2012, 00:26:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'M')aybe because in a post peak world shipping would be curtailed to essential goods?


Essential for who? Human history doesn't show much of a preference for shipping low value goods simply because they are essential. Quite the contrary I think. High value, low weight goods *ALWAYS* take precedence in shipping over bulk grain and other low value, high weight commodities.

Put bluntly, poor people will starve to death before my derailluer becomes unshippable.
Offensive as can be, but truth sucks sometimes.

I would say, if anything, Japan's desire to keep Shimano producing bike widgets and fishing reels will only increase with time, being low weight, high value products, they are cheap to put on that boat's return trip, and are high enough in value for a container or two to easily cover the entire cost of the inbound grain shipment from the US.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby Beery1 » Thu 29 Mar 2012, 15:01:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '[')Think it through, where would you get the proper aluminum alloy and tool steal. That same alloy may now be more valuable and have more important uses else ware..


In what? What is more important than the ability to get around? Surely only food and shelter. Once again, we see here the standard bias against the bicycle - "Oh, it's just a toy - it's not important". Before the advent of the automobile, the fastest mode of transport was the bicycle - and that will be the case after the age of oil. In 1942, the bicycle - that mere 'toy' - dealt the British Empire - the greatest empire the world has ever known - its greatest military defeat. In 1975, the bicycle - that mere 'toy' - dealt the USA - arguably the greatest military power the world has ever seen - its biggest military defeat. These defeats happened because one side understood the value of the bicycle, while the other (the losing side) dismissed it as a mere toy. If the Japanese had not used bicycles in Malaya; if the Vietnamese had not used bicycles in Vietnam, the British would probably not have surrendered at Singapore, and the Americans may have won the war in Vietnam.

Trust me - after the age of fossil fuels, the most important use for alloys, other than in farm machinery, will be in bicycles.

The bicycle is not a toy. In a post fossil fuel world, it's a vehicle; it's a military weapon; it's essential for transportation of goods. Those who disbelieve that may find out the truth of it at their cost.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby Lore » Thu 29 Mar 2012, 16:21:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '[')Think it through, where would you get the proper aluminum alloy and tool steal. That same alloy may now be more valuable and have more important uses else ware..


In what? What is more important than the ability to get around? Surely only food and shelter. Once again, we see here the standard bias against the bicycle - "Oh, it's just a toy - it's not important". Before the advent of the automobile, the fastest mode of transport was the bicycle - and that will be the case after the age of oil. In 1942, the bicycle - that mere 'toy' - dealt the British Empire - the greatest empire the world has ever known - its greatest military defeat. In 1975, the bicycle - that mere 'toy' - dealt the USA - arguably the greatest military power the world has ever seen - its biggest military defeat. These defeats happened because one side understood the value of the bicycle, while the other (the losing side) dismissed it as a mere toy. If the Japanese had not used bicycles in Malaya; if the Vietnamese had not used bicycles in Vietnam, the British would probably not have surrendered at Singapore, and the Americans may have won the war in Vietnam.

Trust me - after the age of fossil fuels, the most important use for alloys, other than in farm machinery, will be in bicycles.

The bicycle is not a toy. In a post fossil fuel world, it's a vehicle; it's a military weapon; it's essential for transportation of goods. Those who disbelieve that may find out the truth of it at their cost.


What bias? I happen to own three bicycles myself and ride them often. As I've stated in practical terms, in a low maintenance society, the bicycle will have its place to get to get a person from point A to B, where they can best be used, but I don’t expect them to become the work horse of the future.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby Beery1 » Thu 29 Mar 2012, 17:13:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery1', ' ')In 1975, the bicycle - that mere 'toy' - dealt the USA - arguably the greatest military power the world has ever seen - its biggest military defeat.
Dude. The Vietnam war ended in 1973 and it wasn't for lack of bicycles.


The Fall of Saigon was on 30 April 1975. I didn't suggest the US lost because they suffered a lack of bicycles. I suggested they lost because they underestimated the efficacy of the bicycles used by the Vietnamese.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his was a favorite of the Vietcong;
The indomitable 122 mm multiple rocket launcher.


How many of those did the Viet Cong have? How many bicycles?

I rest my case.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby Lore » Thu 29 Mar 2012, 17:32:58

I think he is referring to all the old vintage video of the VC pushing their bikes down the"Ho Chi Minh trail". Except they didn't ride them, but used them like carts, walking beside the bike for lack of anything better that rolled.
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Re: Roads Post Peak

Unread postby AgentR11 » Thu 29 Mar 2012, 20:42:19

Had an interesting thought, or rather series of thoughts about post mass ICE road usage. Sand, gravel, and other loose junk on the road. I'm starting to think my skinny tire, high speed, road riding is possible only because of big fat tires attached to automobiles. I recently went splat as a result of speed, sand, and stupidity happening at the same point in space time. didn't seriously injure anything other than my pride, but it made me think. Self recovery and return trip went fine, but wheels needed serious truing. The arm that took most of the energy of the fall is also down a week or so, meaning I can't fire a rifle, nor work a field, and my offhand handgunning is truly terrible regardless.

Me thinks biking post peak will require considerable restraint on the part of adrenaline junkies, as well as the tools and setup to do real home-bound repair when restraint fails.

On the good side, at least I wasn't driving an ICE at the time of the stupidity, could have easily killed someone.
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