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I just had the hope knocked out of me

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 18 Dec 2011, 16:50:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'J')ust get a scooter.


A lot of people are, and more will, as long as you don't need to carry much, they are quite effective. However, I find great sport in doing stuff without relying on motors. Think of it as a derivative of Wilderness Area rules for urban/ex-urban psychopaths. So, I'll be sticking with the bicycle, and its pile of fiddly tools and oddball, special order, parts.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 18 Dec 2011, 17:35:28

Ancient construction moved to ancient-archetecture-t63815-15.html
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One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby Loki » Sun 18 Dec 2011, 17:53:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'W')hile we are on the subject of "bike-friendly" cities, I have to remind ceph and the other greenies that little real work is done in america on a bicycle.

This is certainly true, but to be fair most of the driving that we Americans do doesn't really count as “real work” either. Much of it could be done on bicycle or using public transportation, at least in urban areas. I lived in Portland for a good 6-7 years without a personal vehicle or a bicycle, though for most of that time I lived in the core where public transportation and just plain walking were relatively convenient.

In Portland I've seen some interesting utility bike set-ups. One I've seen somewhat regularly is a delivery bike for a local bakery chain, has a big box on the back. There were some bike taxis, not sure if they're still around. I know of one guy who does a “bike CSA,” bikes to all his little backyard plots.

But yeah, you need a truck for most real work. Here on the farm we'll deliver ~150 CSA boxes in one day, they take up a lot of room, and each box can weigh up to 15 or 20 lbs. That'd be an awful lot to load onto a Schwinn :)

Agent, seems like bike parts could be fairly easily stockpiled if you're really concerned about future availability or affordability. Or you could get one of these:
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 18 Dec 2011, 19:34:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'A')gent, seems like bike parts could be fairly easily stockpiled if you're really concerned about future availability or affordability.


I think my survival odds at 30mph on a wooden bike would be pretty slim.
And... well, you see.. I have this red->green GOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO fetish that is absolutely overpowering.

But yeah on parts, that's what I generally have done. The spokes to the new wheel look a tad more complicated. So I'm basically having this horrible tug-o-war in my head between AR15 and some expensive bike shop maintenance gizmos (truing stand, etc..). Whats really sad, is I have a bike shop within a mile of my house, but the guy is so lazy he won't get off his butt to do a 5 minute truing job on a wheel for cash money, walk in.... asked me to leave the bike till tomorrow. *not*. If he weren't so lazy, he could tag me for $5-$10 margin quickies over and over.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby jupiters_release » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 10:24:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse3', '
')the price of oil is rising again. It did crash in 2008 going from $145 down to $30, but its now back up to about $100 again. Ouch. Its going up but the economy isn't growing, and that's not a good sign...

but everyone in the oil industry says it takes about $70 a barrel to get the oil out of the ground, so this isn't good.


If a barrel of oil is selling for $100 and it takes $70 to produce that barrel, that is the same as saying it takes 70% of a barrel to produce a 100% of a barrel. That is an EROEI around 1.4 to 1.0 !!!

That can't be true! Can it?

Someone please confirm this is way off. A margin this low is like a frog near boiling temp in the pot!!
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby ObiWan » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 10:32:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse3', '
')the price of oil is rising again. It did crash in 2008 going from $145 down to $30, but its now back up to about $100 again. Ouch. Its going up but the economy isn't growing, and that's not a good sign...

but everyone in the oil industry says it takes about $70 a barrel to get the oil out of the ground, so this isn't good.


If a barrel of oil is selling for $100 and it takes $70 to produce that barrel, that is the same as saying it takes 70% of a barrel to produce a 100% of a barrel. That is an EROEI around 1.4 to 1.0 !!!

That can't be true! Can it?


It isn't true. Energy is energy, energy is not dollars.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby ObiWan » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 10:34:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')round the world (but probably more so here in the US) everyday life, personal hopes/dreams, and business planning is becoming dependent on an unsustainable model. It is only a matter of time before the internet runs out of money and energy. I worry that all pretty moving pictures will stop some day as the cost to support this party exceeds our ability to pay for it. Only a matter of time.


The solar system is an unsustainable model. It is only a matter of time before peak hydrogen is attained, the sun begins to expand and the planet is incinerated.

Humanity is having a good run, we might as well enjoy it. Certainly the planet won't survive in any case.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby jupiters_release » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 10:53:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ObiWan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse3', '
')the price of oil is rising again. It did crash in 2008 going from $145 down to $30, but its now back up to about $100 again. Ouch. Its going up but the economy isn't growing, and that's not a good sign...

but everyone in the oil industry says it takes about $70 a barrel to get the oil out of the ground, so this isn't good.


If a barrel of oil is selling for $100 and it takes $70 to produce that barrel, that is the same as saying it takes 70% of a barrel to produce a 100% of a barrel. That is an EROEI around 1.4 to 1.0 !!!

That can't be true! Can it?


It isn't true. Energy is energy, energy is not dollars.


Well, it's disturbing nonetheless that it takes 70% of the current value of a barrel to bring it to market. How long has it costed $70/barrel to produce? How could the price of oil dipped down to $30 a few years ago then?
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 10:57:37

No cars needed.....
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby radon » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 11:09:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '
')If a barrel of oil is selling for $100 and it takes $70 to produce that barrel, that is the same as saying it takes 70% of a barrel to produce a 100% of a barrel. That is an EROEI around 1.4 to 1.0 !!!


At the end of 1990s an oil barrel was selling at $8 at some point, and this was lower than the production cost, at least in some parts of the world.

Anyway, EROEI in itself is not as important as the absolute amount of the net energy produced. When oil was discovered EROEI stood at 300:1 and declined ever since, yet the industrial, scientific and cultural progress did not peak at the moment of the oil discovery (point of maximum EROEI) - to the contrary, it has been continuously accelerating since then.

Hypothetically, we can run BAU at 1.1 or 1.001 EROEI as long as we can scale up the absolute net energy production to the required degree, and ensure that the environment is not irrecoverably damaged. I am not saying that this is achievable, but still it is worth noting that there are two drivers in the equation:

Net Energy Produced= (EROEI -1) * Energy Invested
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby davep » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 11:18:05

EROEI can be lower than one so long as energy invested is cheaper than the energy returned.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby ObiWan » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 11:41:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ObiWan', '
')It isn't true. Energy is energy, energy is not dollars.


Well, it's disturbing nonetheless that it takes 70% of the current value of a barrel to bring it to market. How long has it costed $70/barrel to produce? How could the price of oil dipped down to $30 a few years ago then?


Why does it matter? There is enough profit involved for everyone to get a slice of the pie, and to be happy about it. The price of crude is going up, such is the new reality. Fortunately, the activity itself is highly valuable in terms of economic activity.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industrie ... 52053236/1
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby The Practician » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 14:57:54

Agent, the fundamental technology behind derailleur gears is much simpler and cheaper to maintain than the finicky Rapid-fire SIS stuff you have on your bike right now. When the SHTF, it is pretty much just a matter of throwing some friction shifters on there, which will work fine with whatever rear wheel and freewheel combo is available.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby Revi » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 15:07:35

I don't think there will be many bicycles around. The reason I say this is that almost nobody over 12 who has a job rides one for anything but exercise in the USA. Most of the bikes that were around have been turned into scrap metal. About 10 years you could pick up bikes for nothing, but now they have value, even if it's just a few cents per pound. I saw a bunch in the back of a truck headed to the scrap yard last week.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby The Practician » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 15:32:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') don't think there will be many bicycles around. The reason I say this is that almost nobody over 12 who has a job rides one for anything but exercise in the USA.


This is peak oil we're talking about, who says they have a choice? Let me put it this way: You can't afford a car. You couldn't afford to drive it even if you could. There is no public transit. How are you going to get around? I expect informal "public" transportation networks involving re-purposed minivans and the like are bound to be popular choices, but a bicycle starts to look pretty reasonable at that point too.
I'm not saying any sort of transition is going to be quick or that it is going to look anything like the gentrified yuppie version of urban cycling we have in North America today, But I don't really see how the fact that nobody rides a bike for anything but exercise these days means that won't change when current arrangements are no longer possible.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 17:30:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') don't think there will be many bicycles around. The reason I say this is that almost nobody over 12 who has a job rides one for anything but exercise in the USA.


My odometer for this fall shows ~300 miles; no "exercise rides", maybe 5 miles or so of tuning/fixing; the rest are all direct replacements of necessary vehicle travel. And I most certainly am over 12, and haven't been unemployed since I started working after college.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ost of the bikes that were around have been turned into scrap metal. About 10 years you could pick up bikes for nothing, but now they have value, even if it's just a few cents per pound. I saw a bunch in the back of a truck headed to the scrap yard last week.


A *lot* of the bikes in the US are very low end, and fail the first time an adult put serious force into them. I remember the first adult bike I had, my dad had one and never road it, passed it on to me. First time I opened up on it, the chainring (front gear thing) folded like cardboard. (ripped up 2&3 in front, fortunately the inner ring was more or less intact so I could limp home.) Bike might have had 20 miles on it when it was scrapped. Replaced it with a bike shop Jamis, which survived a few thousand miles of hard city street riding. My current Cannondale replaced it, and is almost finished evolving into a serious vehicle.
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 17:36:30

Huffy rules.......
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Re: I just had the hope knocked out of me

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 17:47:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The Practician', 'W')hen the SHTF, it is pretty much just a matter of throwing some friction shifters on there, which will work fine with whatever rear wheel and freewheel combo is available.


Work fine.. means not beating cars off the line.... And i like beating cars off the line.
Sad panda.
Of course... SHTF... maybe no cars? Those nasty ole roadies might show up though, I can't beat them off the line.

My last experience with a freewheel setup was walking into a bike shop with the axle, "I broke the axle, can it be replaced"... "you didn't break the axle.." ... "here"... "no sh**".
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