Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
Post a reply

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby pup55 » Thu 01 Dec 2011, 15:16:20

Hey, I may send you one anyway, for your excellent work in running the contest this year, so if you beat me, I will send you two.

But, there are still 20 or so trading days left, am I right?
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Thu 01 Dec 2011, 20:47:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'H')ey, I may send you one anyway, for your excellent work in running the contest this year, so if you beat me, I will send you two.

But, there are still 20 or so trading days left, am I right?


Yeah, 20 days sounds about right. And you may still beat me if the closing price stays below $100. Above $100 I would be ahead of you. There's also still a chance WTI may go over $106.20 too, at which point I would be #1! (But I'm not holding my breath).

I appreciate the compliment pup55. You had asked me about a year ago if I would take over the PO.com Oil Price Challenge, and at the time I replied "no", but it looks like I did anyway! lol

We'll see how the game turns out and then we can discuss a trade. :)
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Thu 01 Dec 2011, 21:44:57

Somewhere early in this thread, and I haven't reviewed it yet, but someone posted the EIA's and Goldman Sachs' estimates of the high and low price of WTI in 2011. EIA: 89 for the high and 84 for the low. GS: 107 for the high, 91 for the low, and 107 for the close. I put those numbers into the spreadsheet and GS was #14 and the EIA was #22! Half of the PO.com players guessed better than the EIA! :lol:
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby sparky » Mon 05 Dec 2011, 23:29:14

.that's a though comparing the Peakoil prediction with industry , journalists or traders

we can take eighty percent of our entries,
those +/-10% extremes are not always seriously entered
User avatar
sparky
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3587
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby SteinarN » Tue 06 Dec 2011, 17:01:41

It seems the WTI is slooowly creeping above 100. Lets hope it stays there until year end, not above about 106 though. :)
User avatar
SteinarN
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 278
Joined: Thu 20 Sep 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Norway
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Wed 07 Dec 2011, 19:51:18

I wouldn't mind if it got to $106.20 for just one day. Like on December 30th. :lol:

SteinarN is #1 as of Dec 5th:

Image
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby SteinarN » Thu 08 Dec 2011, 05:51:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'I') wouldn't mind if it got to $106.20 for just one day. Like on December 30th. :lol:


I bet you wouldn't :-D
User avatar
SteinarN
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 278
Joined: Thu 20 Sep 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Norway
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 12 Dec 2011, 11:11:55

It's going to be either me, seagypsy or Steiner......if we have a little drop, I win, if it stays steady, its the gypsy, if it goes up, its steiner.
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
User avatar
TheAntiDoomer
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1556
Joined: Wed 18 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby pup55 » Mon 12 Dec 2011, 20:03:47

Pretty tense. The whole table can be turned upside down with just a few dollars. The last trading day will fall on Friday the 30th, which means a lot of US traders may want to walk away from the market so as not to be exposed over the long New Year weekend... which means light volume... which means the possibility of pretty big price swings that day....
User avatar
pup55
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5249
Joined: Wed 26 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby TheAntiDoomer » Wed 14 Dec 2011, 12:12:49

96.50, we are only 2 bucks from antidoomer glory :lol: :-D :razz:
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
User avatar
TheAntiDoomer
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1556
Joined: Wed 18 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby TheAntiDoomer » Wed 14 Dec 2011, 16:09:48

94.81!!!!! Even if its for a brief moment i'm back in First baby!! wooooohoooo
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
User avatar
TheAntiDoomer
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1556
Joined: Wed 18 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby TheAntiDoomer » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 11:24:05

How is the table looking with 10 trading days left?
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
User avatar
TheAntiDoomer
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1556
Joined: Wed 18 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby davep » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 11:25:04

You may be taking this just a wee bit too seriously...
What we think, we become.
User avatar
davep
Senior Moderator
Senior Moderator
 
Posts: 4579
Joined: Wed 21 Jun 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Europe
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby dolanbaker » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 11:40:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'Y')ou may be taking this just a wee bit too seriously...

Maybe this is the first time he's ever won anything. ;)
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
User avatar
dolanbaker
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3855
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 10:38:47
Location: Éire
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Revi » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 11:55:09

I am back in 28th place. I am sure glad I didn't bet any maple syrup this year. ( I ran out anyway)
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby Cog » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 17:01:02

I'm annoyed by all this, I want you to know. I was in the top five in 2009. The top ten in 2010. And now in 2011, I'm in 13th place.

I've concluded the more I play this game, the worse I get at it.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13416
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby kublikhan » Mon 19 Dec 2011, 17:43:53

There is no shame in being behind the almighty Kublikhan. His gift for predicting the future borders on legendary.
The oil barrel is half-full.
User avatar
kublikhan
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 5064
Joined: Tue 06 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
Location: Illinois
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby TheAntiDoomer » Tue 20 Dec 2011, 11:07:25

After having the lead for a couple days it shifts back to Sea Gypsy, this is going to be an exciting finish!
"The human ability to innovate out of a jam is profound.That’s why Darwin will always be right, and Malthus will always be wrong.” -K.R. Sridhar


Do I make you Corny? :)

"expect 8$ gas on 08/08/08" - Prognosticator
User avatar
TheAntiDoomer
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1556
Joined: Wed 18 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby SeaGypsy » Sun 25 Dec 2011, 07:40:04

Happy xmas all! ( :-D )
Do we get a last scorecard for this week?
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9285
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00
Top

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Postby PeakOiler » Sun 25 Dec 2011, 08:15:18

Deleted-double post.
Last edited by PeakOiler on Sun 25 Dec 2011, 08:17:39, edited 1 time in total.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas
Top
PreviousNext
Post a reply

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron