[basil_hayden]

And Pops digs Spam.

[Pops]

I'm.. dreaming of a Spam... Christmas...

[basil_hayden]

Just like the ones we're used to now....

Where the pork fat glistens
and economic reports keep missin'....

[Pops]

Here comes a swan now...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;One of the implications of the potential delay [in the Keystone pipe] would be to accelerate other pipeline solutions, including the potential Seaway solution," said Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup.

"That could mean instead of waiting until 2013 for an evacuation of crude out of Padd 2 (Midcontinent) into Padd 3 (Gulf Coast) it might happen in 2012 instead."

Enbridge announced this week it will likely proceed with Wrangler, an 800,000 bpd, $2 billion pipeline that would shift crude from the Cushing to the giant U.S. Gulf Coast refining hub after receiving strong shipper interest. Enterprise is also a partner in Wrangler, which could be in service by mid-2013.

Confidence that one of these pipelines will help alleviate the Midwest glut can also be seen further out in the oil futures curve. The premium of December 2013 Brent to December 2013 WTI, which topped $17 a barrel in September, has dropped more than $3 this week to $8.35 on Friday.

"There's a growing realization that despite (Federal) government actions, the economic imperative is to move more oil out of Cushing, and that has been taking place." said Mark Routt, analyst and engineer at KBC in Houston.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'D')epending on if/when Enterprise buys the Conoco Seaway line and reverses the flow to the GOM refineries prices could pop quite a bit.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o why aren't I making money at this?

[PeakOiler]

SeaGypsy still holds the #1 spot as of yesterday's closing price of $99.37. Seagypsy and SteinarN will be tied at a closing price of $100.15.

Between $100.16 and $106.19, SteinarN will be #1.

From $106.20 to $113.93, yours truly will be #1.

Above $113.93, a new high price will set for the year and a new set of iterations would have to be performed.

I'll post a new scorecard next week if there's a change at #1. And the way prices jumped today and seem to be headed, that may just very well happen.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o why aren't I making money at this?

[TheAntiDoomer]

Hey peakoiler. If the current iteration holds and we get a correction. What is my magic number? 94.?

[PeakOiler]

With the current high and low prices, TheAntiDoomer would be #1 if the closing price is between $89.43 and $94.85.

[SteinarN]

I think I've been in the lead for a day or two now.
I've noticed the spread between WTI and Brent is much smaler than earlier this year. It used to be about 20 but now is down to about 10 dollars. So Brent havent increased lately, only the WTI. Anyone know the reason for this reduction in spread?

Edit: Havent been in the lead yet, but at todays intraprice at about 102.90 at 10:10 CET I'm in the lead. We'll see the next few days how it turns out

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SteinarN', 'I') think I've been in the lead for a day or two now.
I've noticed the spread between WTI and Brent is much smaler than earlier this year. It used to be about 20 but now is down to about 10 dollars. So Brent havent increased lately, only the WTI. Anyone know the reason for this reduction in spread?

[TheAntiDoomer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOiler', 'W')ith the current high and low prices, TheAntiDoomer would be #1 if the closing price is between $89.43 and $94.85.

[TheAntiDoomer]

95.60, the lead is so close again i can taste it, smells like oily goodness

[PeakOiler]

SeaGypsy is still #1 as of today's EIA report.

SteinarN was #1 (for one day) on November 16th when the reported closing price was $102.59.

I'll post a scorecard next week after the close of November's data. Only five weeks left.

And yes, that is my 2003 Insight in my avatar. 55 mpg (lifetime avg) with about 197k miles on it.

It's time to begin the 2012 Oil Price Challenge thread and make your guesses.

Pops: Are you going to keep track of the Brent oil price data next year?

[SeaGypsy]

Hi Y'all; LTNS
I'm not quite ready to gloat, but if I won it again would that be a new 1st?
1st time entry winner/ with a hat trick?

[Cog]

There might be a imminent attaack on Iran. That would change the numbers.

[PeakOiler]

After downloading last week's EIA spreadsheet, I decided to make a graph of the WTI oil price since 2004 and added a linear trend line. (Making the graph gave me a possible hint for 2012).



I also determined the
average, high, low, and range for the years 2008 to present:
2008: 99.75, 145.29, 33.87, 111.42
2009: 62.09, 81.37, 33.98, 47.39
2010: 79.61, 91.51, 68.01, 23.50
2011 ytd: 94.72, 113.93, 75.67, 38.26

The leader stats changed since SeaGypsy and SteinarN were added to the leaders list (e.g. the percent of the time they held the #1 spot):

TheDude............62.....27.43%
basil_hayden.......55.....24.34%
Daniel_Plainview..30.5..13.50%
no_name............25....11.06%
TheAntiDoomer....15.....6.64%
Midessa..............13.....5.75%
Cog..................7.5 ....3.32%
SeaGypsy............11.....4.87%
kublikhan.............4 ....1.77%
OilFinder2 ...........2.....0.88%
SteinarN..............1.....0.44%

226 reported days from the EIA as of Nov 23.

Will SeaGypsy hold the lead for the last month? We'll see...

[PeakOiler]

The latest scorecard:



It appears that WTI closed above $100 today. That would put SteinarN in first and me ahead of pup55. It's neck and neck at the end of this race!

I should have bet pup55 a bottle of peach wine for a bottle of his homebrew.

[SteinarN]

Ahh, two days in the lead then. But it's a mont left of the year. A lot of things can still happen.