Hope yer turn is soon oily.
PeakOil is You
US economic recovery is complete. pt 3
Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 2
by vision-master » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 13:16:57
That's cause their ain't too many worken ppl left to get the boot.
Hope yer turn is soon oily.
Hope yer turn is soon oily.
- vision-master
Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 2
by copious.abundance » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 13:19:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'T')hat's cause their ain't too many worken ppl left to get the boot.
Yet another nonsensical statement from blindness-master. If there were no one left to get the boot, the unemployment rate would be 100%, not falling to 8.3%.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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copious.abundance - Fission
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 2
by GoIllini » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 13:31:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheAntiDoomer', 'T')he graphs:
This is some cause for cautious optimism, but I haven't seen anything on discouraged workers. Also the informal industry. We will have to see if this trend continues. The problem is that if we see a sustained increase in US employment, that will mean higher energy prices and more inflation.
We are not out of the Malthusian leg of our 35-year economic cycle. We have five to ten more years of sideways markets, high commodities costs, and general gloom. It will probably end when the smart money is hiding under their beds and folks treat blue-chip stocks like they treated penny stocks at the height of the dot-com boom.
A sub-9% unemployment reading would be nice. This could be the impact of the Japanese recovery. Hopefully our environmentally-friendly arc furnaces are working full tilt to produce recycled steel for them to rebuild.
I think the public is expecting sub-8% unemployment for the trillions spent on stimulus over the past 4 years. If we get that, it doesn't guarantee a Democratic congress, but short of a major scandal, it probably gives Obama a second term and maybe some political breathing room for energy reform.
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GoIllini - Tar Sands
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 2
by Armageddon » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 19:02:55
Here Comes The Double Dip (Empire)
Sorry folks, the "recovery" meme has just run out of gas....
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in October. The general business conditions index remained negative and, at -.5, was little changed. The new orders index hovered around zero, indicating that orders were flat, while the shipments index rose above zero to 5.3. The inventories index stayed below zero, a sign that inventories declined. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received fell, but remained positive, suggesting that price increases moderated. The index for number of employees rose several points but was at a relatively low level of 3.4, while the average workweek index was negative for a fifth consecutive month. The future general business conditions index dropped six points to 6.7, its lowest level since early 2009, while future indexes for prices paid and prices received declined.
Sorry folks, the "recovery" meme has just run out of gas....
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in October. The general business conditions index remained negative and, at -.5, was little changed. The new orders index hovered around zero, indicating that orders were flat, while the shipments index rose above zero to 5.3. The inventories index stayed below zero, a sign that inventories declined. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received fell, but remained positive, suggesting that price increases moderated. The index for number of employees rose several points but was at a relatively low level of 3.4, while the average workweek index was negative for a fifth consecutive month. The future general business conditions index dropped six points to 6.7, its lowest level since early 2009, while future indexes for prices paid and prices received declined.
Yuck.
There is utterly nothing to indicate success in "reflating" or "restarting" the economy here. Nothing.
This report is just flat-out terrible, no ifs ands or buts. I wish there was some other way to put this, but there isn't. What's worse is that the composite is now sitting just about where it was in 2010 and just before it all went to hell in 2008.
So what we have here is more validation for my beliefs: The Fed delayed but did not avoid the contraction in 2010 with its "QE2", and in engaging in that program it weakened both itself and the government in general by destroying both's ability to respond in the future to financial stress.
Now we have the stress in Europe and elsewhere and the economy is falling apart into an environment where the people know they got rooked.
This is not a good situation and of course those in Congress that could have stood up for what's right rather than what's politically expedient didn't do so.
You're about to get the bill for your stupidity Washington.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=196083
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Armageddon - Light Sweet Crude
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Re: US economic recovery is complete. pt 2
by GoIllini » Mon 17 Oct 2011, 19:42:45
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'S')o what we have here is more validation for my beliefs: The Fed delayed but did not avoid the contraction in 2010 with its "QE2", and in engaging in that program it weakened both itself and the government in general by destroying both's ability to respond in the future to financial stress.
Now we have the stress in Europe and elsewhere and the economy is falling apart into an environment where the people know they got rooked. This is not a good situation and of course those in Congress that could have stood up for what's right rather than what's politically expedient didn't do so.
You're about to get the bill for your stupidity Washington. http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=196083
Now we have the stress in Europe and elsewhere and the economy is falling apart into an environment where the people know they got rooked. This is not a good situation and of course those in Congress that could have stood up for what's right rather than what's politically expedient didn't do so.
You're about to get the bill for your stupidity Washington. http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=196083
Well, it is important to view things in context. They had a very strong spring, but it is turning a bit negative now: N Y Fed
The general business conditions are consistent with November of last year and the future business conditions are tracking above 2008/2009 and may have already formed a bottom. Additionally, inventories are down, a good sign for future manufacturing. So there is some good news in the report and it's best to take it all in stride.
There's a lot of good news and bad news in the economy, and the manufacturers are really downstream from the consumers, who were posting negative sentiment back in February and March. The Japanese earthquake probably did not help much with their suppliers either. The two indicators that I like to look at for the general long-term health of the US economy are unemployment and the consumer savings rate, and both seem to be doing OK.
The Philips curve moved out dramatically in 2008- just as it did in 1973/4- and we are likely to continue seeing >6% unemployment and >3% inflation for another 10-15 years.
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