How about existing technology being employed by the economy? Yes, we have the technology for electric cars and with A123's more lithium-efficient batteries, we are capable of getting a whole lot more on the road in 10 years, but right now, we are still stuck with internal combustion engines. The average car on the road gets 3 more mpg than it did five years ago, and that IS having an impact. It is probably keeping inflation 0.2% lower.
The Philips curve is not a forward-looking thing. It's the current situation; effectively the choice for the federal reserve on unemployment vs. inflation.
PeakOil is You
TAE: Commodities and Deflation
Re: TAE: Commodities and Deflation
by GoIllini » Thu 13 Oct 2011, 11:25:37
-
GoIllini - Tar Sands
- Posts: 765
- Joined: Sat 05 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Re: TAE: Commodities and Deflation
by GoIllini » Thu 13 Oct 2011, 11:33:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('highlander', 'T')he cost of energy from your hoped for escape from consequences of our lifestyle choices is way too high. I suppose we could build a nuke plant or 30 over the deposits to supply the energy needed to extract the oil to meet our transportation needs, but that seems quite unlikely.
Shale gas can be produced at an EROEI of 70 and we have 100 years of it. Yes, we will run out sooner with exponential growth. But with electric cars coming out, that buys us some time to switch cars over to the grid and eventually get fusion working- or better yet, extraterrestrial solar collection- sustainable for 5 billion years and exponentially growable for thousands- if we can get a space elevator working.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e made good choices in the 70's that led to conservation, but we are getting away from them in our fascination with high tech gadgets. We have not made necessary improvements to the grid to support wind and solar, and we have a 60's mindset when it comes to horsepower in our vehicles.
Not necessarily true. The US consumes 10% less oil today than it did five years ago and ten years ago. Cars get better mileage. The oil intensity of the economy has come down dramatically.
$3/gallon gas is enough to start getting folks to conserve. $5/gallon gas is enough to get them to switch to electric cars.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile deflation is the right outcome, inflation is in the best interest of debtor nations. It has always been the path chosen. the end of that road has almost always been war. Fasten your seatbelts, it is about to get interesting.
What happened in the late '70s then? The Vietnam War ended. Was Grenada the war?
I think a fair expectation is for us to halve the value of the dollar so our federal debt comes down to 1960s lows as a percentage of GDP. That would imply 7% inflation over the next 10 years if we get entitlement spending under control.
We are in much better shape than central/southern Europe, much better shape than China. Worse shape than Norway, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, and New Zealand.
-
GoIllini - Tar Sands
- Posts: 765
- Joined: Sat 05 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
22 posts
• Page 2 of 2 • 1, 2
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests