by ian807 » Fri 16 Sep 2011, 19:01:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'T')here is hope for the future.......
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/9/prweb8791211.htmIt's not hard to see how they came to this conclusion.
1) The naive view of oil is to only consider quantity. GS Analysts may still be at that stage. Actually useful measurements like the EROEI/price ratio, or oil price feedback's effect on marginal oil costs over time may not have factored in.
2) There is a lot of um..., dubious information regarding oil supply and production in general. NOCs and large private oil companies keep stock prices high and financing flowing by exaggerating supply numbers and making "optimistic" assumptions about future production capacity. NOCs do so to enhance political prestige and reduce the odds of attack coordinated with a shortage in supply and the cashflow it represents. A GS analyst is unlikely to have factored this in, perhaps not even for obvious cases like Saudi Arabia.
3) The human factor. Frankly, nobody at Goldman Sachs who tells the truth about this is going to get their bonus. The announcement is more likely some sort of investment play. Any factual accuracy is likely to be coincidental.