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USA Could Be The World's Biggest Oil Producer

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: USA Could Be The World's Biggest Oil Producer

Unread postby Pops » Sat 17 Sep 2011, 09:03:36

I'd been tapping on this for a day or so but the old interwebs weren't webbing too good. :-x

Anyway whether or not the US is the biggest producer is irrelevant. Here's why:

First available oil is in decline:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('westexas @ TOD', 'W')e have seen a measurable decline in Global Net Exports (GNE), with 21 of the top 33 net oil exporters showing lower net exports in 2010, versus 2005. Furthermore, a simple model, and numerous case histories, show that net export decline rates tend to accelerate with time.

The data show that the developing countries, especially China & India, are generally outbidding the developed countries for access to GNE. Our work suggests that the US is well on it way to "freedom" from our reliance on foreign sources of oil, just not in the way that most people hoped.


And here is his chart on the topic showing declining net exports and even faster declining available exports due to nationalization, primarily by China...

Image


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Second the US, KSA and Russia produce essentially the same amount of liquids, but only the US still imports half:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jonathan Callahan @ TOD', '
')
Image
Image
Image



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So,

1) More production is a good thing for US jobs and economy.

2) But unless the US can replace all the "oil available for export" lost to depletion everywhere else in the world it makes no difference to oil price, peak oil or ELM reductions in available oil.

3) The United States produces no oil whatsoever. Exxon and her buddies produce oil and sell it globally wherever they can make the best profit. The US consumer is in line right along with everyone else for the oil we burn every day whether it comes from the Niger Delta or Oklahoma, so where we "rank" make absolutely no difference.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: USA Could Be The World's Biggest Oil Producer

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 17 Sep 2011, 13:00:03

Good points, pop, and another reason that it is a meaningless claim, even if it turns out to be right, is that this could happen tomorrow with no increase in domestically produced oil if one of any number of above or below ground factors ended up reducing the output in KSA or Russia.

So, in that case we could all cheer YEAH, WE'RE #1.

But gas would be no cheaper. In fact it would likely be much more expensive, since, as pop points out, oil is priced on the world market, and if there's less oil available in the world from whatever source, it is going to be more expensive everywhere.

This is much like Bachman's claim that if she is elected, the price of gas will go down to $2/g. I believe her. When gas was that price, the world was in deep recession/depression. I have every confidence that, if elected, the inimitable Ms. Bachman would soon throw the country and the world into such a huge depression that few would have jobs, so few would be driving to work or money to buy gas, so the price of gas would fall to $2 or lower.

Somehow, I don't think that was the way Ms. B. wanted us to take her claim, but it cries out for exactly that interpretation. That, after all, is how the last Republican President brought us that wonderful $2 gas.

Finally, our use of gas is inextricably connected to what it becomes on the other side of the combustion process--so for you viewing pleasure:

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/issue/
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Re: USA Could Be The World's Biggest Oil Producer

Unread postby shenglu » Sun 23 Oct 2011, 21:03:37

Revenue to stay in Europe - only a handful of money left to pay for oil imports. High taxes also help to reduce consumption - which in turn reduces the amount of funds to pay for imported oil.
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