by scas » Tue 25 Oct 2011, 15:53:05
The thing about drought is...just like in East Africa, the drought frequency, intensity, and duration increases over decades especially as industrial emissions trap more heat energy. As the Arctic melts down the ITCZ will move polewards leading to a drying of the entire equator, sort of what we're seeing now. You get a few years of drought, some rain, then more drought, some floods, then more drought and its the Dust Bowl all over again. Eventually its becomes the Sahara.
So Texas may get a few wet years? Great. Be happy about it, All the serious climate science shows a heating and drying along the equator and especially in Texas even in a moderate emission scenario. Looking at the various drought and rainfall projections from NCAR and Hadley, the equator will be uninhabitable (for food growth) by mid-century.