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Worst place post peak

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Postby erl » Tue 24 May 2005, 00:32:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheTurtle', '
') :? But ... knives are GOOD. I'm willing to leave a lot of things behind whenever I venture out into the wilderness, but a knife is the one thing I ALWAYS want with me.

Just so you don't feel bad, I'm thinking of getting a nice puukko soon. :)


Puukko? Mora?

Try Fallkniven!!!
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Postby eastbay » Tue 24 May 2005, 01:07:55

http://www.ci.livermore.ca.us/econdev/ed_profile.html

San Franciso may get 22 inches/year, but not too much can be grown on concrete and asphalt which makes up most of the city land. :-D

Out in the outlying areas where food could be grown the rainfall can be much lower. Livermore is 14.4 inches, for example, and most east bay areas are lower than 22 inches. One nice thing about living here is one can go all year without heating and air conditioning.

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Postby Doly » Tue 24 May 2005, 09:33:22

I don't think London will be that bad. Yes, it is huge. But it's surrounded by farmland, plenty of food can be shipped into it, and a lot of the suburbia are houses with gardens. Besides, it proved that it could do OK in WWII, and it had bombing on top of rationing.
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Postby johnmarkos » Tue 24 May 2005, 11:50:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '
')San Franciso may get 22 inches/year, but not too much can be grown on concrete and asphalt which makes up most of the city land. :-D


You're right. If the city of SF has to be entirely self-sufficient, we're in big trouble. I'm planning for a medium-term future in which SF is the economic nexus of a larger, mostly self-sufficient northern California. In this scenario, although a 3000 mile Caesar salad might be a real luxury, a 100 mile Caesar salad is quite reasonable.

Our CSA farm is 68 miles away in Yolo County. Although this is not in our back yard, it's certainly an improvement over having one's food transported cross-country.

On the other hand, in the really bad SHTF scenario, I agree that Mendocino or Humboldt county looks a lot more attractive than the city.
Last edited by johnmarkos on Tue 24 May 2005, 15:17:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby johnmarkos » Tue 24 May 2005, 12:05:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leaf', 'I') also wonder why San Fran is on the top of peoples list. I was there 1 time and it seemed to be one of the better cities Ive been in...good transport...good climate...yeah its packed of people...Why is San Fran on the top 10 cities people dont think will do good post peak? Can someone from San Fran who lives there now come up with some pros and cons? I have friends who live in naperville IL and are thinking of moving to San fran....should I advise then not to? I know Naperville will have its set of probs in the future.

Pros: good climate, high tech industry, decent transit system.
Cons: high housing prices, earthquakes, sprawling suburbia.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic4560.html
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Postby marko » Tue 24 May 2005, 13:01:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'W')hat's with all the hate for Boston?? :)

In defense of "my" city...

First off, it's not that big. Less than 1 million people live in the greater Boston area. Secondly, Boston has been around for almost 400 years. It is mostly walkable. It has plenty of rainfall and the weather is not THAT cold, (well, compared to Chicago or Montreal). The city is in a good location. Right next to the ocean and in an important waterway, it's not going to abandoned any time soon.

So...move Boston off that list. And put Miami or Dallas up there :P .


Hey Tyler. Boston is "my" city, too. And I don't hate it. I love it. (Well, maybe not when I am stuck in traffic.)

However, I do not think Boston will be a good place to be in the economic crash that will likely be precipitated by peak oil.

First of all, according to US Census figures from December 2003, the population of the Boston metropolitan area (urban agglomeration) is over 4 million. It is one of the top 10 metropolitan areas in the US by population.

Its economy is mainly based on education, finance, and health care. These sectors are all going to suffer terribly when the economy comes down with a crash, as I am confident that it will within 8 years at the most. Harvard and MIT will still be there, as will a few military contractors on Route 128. However, the middle class will no longer be able to afford to send their kids to big schools like BU, Northeastern, Suffolk, or UMass Boston, which is where most of the education jobs are. The rest of us will be competing for the few available jobs for security guards guarding the few remaining businesses, janitors at those few places, and maids working for the few people who still have jobs. There will be nowhere near enough jobs to go around.

There is very, very little viable farmland near Boston. There are likely to be serious problems feeding its unemployed majority. I expect serious starvation. This situation may not be as bad in Sunbelt cities like Dallas, which are surrounded by farmland.

Also, unlike Midwestern and some Sunbelt cities, Boston has almost no manufacturing left. The one hope for urban areas in the immediate aftermath of the peak will be their ability to produce useful manufactures that they can, in effect, exchange for food.

How will Boston feed itself after the collapse of the so-called "service economy," which in fact depends on Asian countries to lend us billions of dollars a day and to send us the useful goods that we no longer make ourselves?

I take your point about Miami, which in several ways is worse off than Boston and probably should be higher on the list of worst places to be.
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Postby smallpoxgirl » Tue 24 May 2005, 13:53:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'I')'m really surprised Memphis has not made any of these lists.


Clearly an oversight. I went to med-school in Memphis. It sucks. Crime. Violence. Some of the worst racism I've ever seen, and I grew up in the South. The park across the street from my med-school was named after the founder of the KKK. About a half hour to the East is the state park named after the same individual. Memphis has a neighborhood named "white haven". I lived there for two years before it dawned on me what that meant. Irronically it's a mostly black neighborhood, now that all the whites have fled to the burbs.

OTOH it's a great place to go to med school. A: no incintive to do anything but cower in your apartment and study. B: Tons of good "learning cases". It's a relatively small town and has as many gun shot wounds as DC and Baltimore. The record at the hospital there is 26 "shock trauma" patient's in 24 hours (i.e. patients on the brink of death from trauma, usually gun shot wounds.)
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Postby PenultimateManStanding » Tue 24 May 2005, 14:28:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', ' ') Memphis has a neighborhood named "white haven". I lived there for two years before it dawned on me what that meant. Irronically it's a mostly black neighborhood, now that all the whites have fled to the burbs.

:lol: comic relief - I can use that.
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Postby TheTurtle » Tue 24 May 2005, 16:04:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('erl', '
')
Puukko? Mora?

Try Fallkniven!!!


An excellent blade, but far more expensive than a Frost mora.
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Postby erl » Tue 24 May 2005, 22:10:37

As I think about it, one of the worst places to be post peak must be Mexico City.

But then, like other "worst places" it will quickly depopulate and become less "worst."

A lot of people list Phoenix as one of the tough spots. I'm not sure I agree. We're not like Humboldt, but what is? I mean it's certainly hot here, but (so far) water seems reasonably accessible. The Salt River still runs through town.

We are still surrounded by lots of farm acreage and cattle and dairy production.

And, a few days of 110 degree heat w/o air conditioning is going to drive off the wimps. Yes, Phoenix will depopulate quickly in the crash, it's happened before. But that leaves the place better for the rest of us desert dwellers.
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Postby MD » Thu 26 May 2005, 19:34:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')s this the same Lake Mead that is shrinking down to empty and the same Hoover Dam that is a few years away from not being a net energy producer?

Las Vegas will have to be shrunk back down to a sustainable level over the next few decades or it will turn into a mass grave.


When the Colorado stops filling Lake Mead, the ecological systems of the planet are finished.

I was in the Hoover Dam power room a couple years ago. 32(or 36?) main generators capable of generating 34(or so) megawatts of electricity, just what is going to turn this to the negative while the water is still flowing?

So, assuming a major disruption in transportation and power grids, how long do you think before the people of Las Vegas figure out they can keep all that power and water for themselves? I think you can very reasonably project regional fights over the hydropower portions of of a failing and increasingly fragmented electrical grid. Fights that may become intense enough to destroy the hydropower stations in the effort to control them. Hoover, Niagra, TVA, and a host of smaller installations.

This could all very reasonably occur on the way to Las Vegas' inevitable return to desert.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Postby pea-jay » Fri 27 May 2005, 17:40:21

At 18% of Nevada's consumption, it could easily be argued that Hydro power wouldn't even be sufficient to power Las Vegas, even if they wanted to sieze control.

Most of Southern Nevada electricity originates from gas and coal sources.

2003 Nevada Power report

I cannot speak to water consumption however.
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Postby MD » Fri 27 May 2005, 20:21:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pea-jay', 'A')t 18% of Nevada's consumption, it could easily be argued that Hydro power wouldn't even be sufficient to power Las Vegas, even if they wanted to sieze control.

Most of Southern Nevada electricity originates from gas and coal sources.

2003 Nevada Power report

I cannot speak to water consumption however.


Great info, thanks!
I did some addtional checking and found that Hoover capacity is 2000+ megawatts, most of which is diverted to Los Angeles. Nevada power 2003 load was 5929 megawatts. Therefore Hoover could provide 35% of Nevada power requirements all by itself.

The sheer scale of power consumption in this country is beyond my ability to grasp. Hoover is such a massive installation yet it is puny in comparison.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
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