[seahorse3]

Oil, unfortunately you are here to argue a position regardless of facts, not to try to understand the truth. That's evident by your statement that even if SA produced the data the peakers/doomers wouldn't believe them. In this statement, you assume the data would be optimistic and you categorize people with class "left/right" labels. That is a classic illogical argument ad hominem. This is the problem I have with you and many others on the board, and why I frequent it less often. I come back because there have been a few, only a few posters over the years, that I think are hear to ascertain the facts and form opinions based on the facts, not form an opinion and cherry pick facts to support it. One of the current fair posters is Pup and I believe Rocdock falls into that category as well.

Back to the SA thread, there have been many posters here over the years who have worked in the oil industry. One in particular living in Europe (who no longer posts here) said that he was quite confident that all SA oil production data could easily fit on a "floppy" or however he termed it and was most likely smuggled out long ago and in the hands of most major world govt's. I always thought that interesting and most likely very true. So, if true, the recent IEA action becomes more meaningful.

As a layman, I've always taken the position that if someone were the big kid on the block, aka SA and its oil production, it would have no reason to keep it a state secret. It would flaunt it, just as the US flaunts its military firepower and nuclear power.

[copious.abundance]

seahorse, obviously not "all" peakers here would distrust data coming out from KSA, I apologize if I pigeonholed you or anyone else into any group. That said, it's obvious to me a lot of people on this forum would distrust anything the Saudis said - especially if it showed their production going back up to previous record levels. This is the same crowd who thinks KSA is lying about their reserves, about their spare capacity and ability to pump more oil, etc. etc. For people like this, it makes no difference whether the data is coming from the Saudis themselves or from independent groups; if it shows what they don't want to see, they refuse to believe it.

[seahorse3]

Oil, thanks for your reply. And I agree, many would argue with the figures if SA put them out.

Here's where I differ on some of the more optimistic view points, which is equating reserve additions to production. Many optimistic view points cite increasing reserve additions to meaning there will not be a peak in oil production. I disagree. There is no question that reserves grow. The US is a prime example. US reserves have increased but production has decreased (since the Hubbert peak***). So, reservers and production are related but not the same. The same should hold true for Opec. So although Opec increased their reserves, it doesn't necessarily mean increased production. SA shows that. SA has increased their reserve figures, just as the US did, but SA production has actually dropped since 1980, just as the US dropped.

Now, the question has been why has SA production dropped since 1980? Some argue its bc of increasing decline rates (just like the US), others like Rockdoc say SA adjusted production down based on market conditions. I have a tendency to believe its more related to decline rates and not market conditions, bc the world demand and prices justify increased production. However, I understand you and others disagree with that position. The truth is, no one knows yet, but the problem remains, the world needs increasing energy production to grow.

As you point out, NG production is growing, but unfortunately the world isn't using it for much yet and still flaring it. We ignore people like Pickens who, rightfully in my opinion, say it should be used in commercial trucking.

***I understand US production has increased lately but still not reached its alltime highs. I'm all for increasing production, but remain cautiously skeptical that the new oil plays can bring the US back above its peak***

I do think peak oil issues can be ameliorated other than by simply crushing the economy (aka demand destruction). For example, switching commercial trucking to NG as proposed by Boone Pickens. However, instead of being proactive to a perceived problem, we seem to be incapable of reacting, collectively, proactively. In the end, it seems it will take a financial crisis to get people to make a shift.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll these giant fields were discovered and produced before 1968, most date back to the 30's and 40's. They are old tired and depleted

[timmac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he United States' prized top AAA credit rating has been cut for the first time ever. Standard & Poor's has dropped America's ranking to AA+. Asian investors are getting cagey on the back of what's been a tough week for America's economy. Jim Rogers says they're ditching bonds.

[FloridaGirl]

If you subtract out the Federal Reserve's printed money from the GDP, it's clear that we did not get out of a recession. For the first 6 months of this year, subtracting the Federal Reserves Treasury Purchases (about 9% annual rate of GDP) from the growth of GDP (about .9% annual rate of GDP) yields a decline in GDP of a 8% annual rate.

And you would expect that the printed money would get counted multiple times in the GDP. The Federal Reserve buys Treasuries which the government pays somebody with, then that person buys something and so on. Bernanke must be flabbergasted that the economy is still getting worse despite that big of a money injection.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you subtract out the Federal Reserve's printed money from the GDP, it's clear that we did not get out of a recession.

[americandream]

Jim Rogers. Now there's a rare one. An American capitalist who loves "communist" China.

[copious.abundance]

It would be nice to have Jim Rogers chime in on this thread someday.

LINK
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')UGUST 10, 2011, 8:16 A.M. ET
IEA: Saudi Oil Production In July Highest For 30 Years

LONDON (Dow Jones)--OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia's oil production in July reached its highest level in three decades, averaging 9.8 million barrels a day, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

This is because the Saudis have stepped in to replace around 70% of the oil production shut down by the Libyan civil war, the IEA said in its monthly oil market report.

The kingdom has increased oil output by 1.1 million barrels a day since the outbreak of hostilities in Libya, it said.

"The last time Saudi Arabia produced around the 10 million barrel a day mark was in 1981, after the Kingdom had earlier surged output to offset lost supplies from Iran following the fall of the Shah," the IEA said.

^
Rogers never said Saudi would meet or surpass 10mbpd, he said they would never be able to increase production by 1 million bpd. They have. He was wrong.

I just viewed the whole interview. This guy is actually pretty clueless. He's calling for a rise in both the US dollar *and* commodities - *all* commodities. Makes no sense. When the dollar goes up commodities mostly go down, and vice-versa.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'J')im Rogers joins Zero Hedge in being highly skeptical about just how credible Saudi's call for a 1MM + boost in its oil supply is: "Saudi Arabia has been lying about the reserves for decades. Saudi Arabia the last two times said they are going to increase production and they couldn't increase production. Don't fall for that. The reason oil is going up is the world is running out of known reserves of oil."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jim-rogers-saudi-arabia-lying-about-being-able-increase-its-oil-production

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') just viewed the whole interview. This guy is actually pretty clueless. He's calling for a rise in both the US dollar *and* commodities - *all* commodities. Makes no sense. When the dollar goes up commodities mostly go down, and vice-versa.

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]IEA: Saudi Oil Production In July Highest For 30 Years