[lorenzo]

(This is just a detail - don't mind the social darwinist undertones).

Some preliminary remarks:

1. I firmly believe that modernity would not have come about without cheap oil
2. I also think that modernity brings about huge psychological changes in mankind
3. I think that some of these psychological afflictions are genetically determined, but that they need the right societal conditions to become "expressed"
4. Finally, I think that societies may change very suddenly (collapse or crash), while these "expressed" afflictions may persist far longer, - a phenomenon which results in a bizarre "disconnect" between psyche and society
---------ok--------

I recently watched an interesting documentary about the psychopathology of our high-tech societies. Autism, Asperger and similar afflictions are spectacularly on the rise, hikikomori is whiping out an entire generation in Japan, ADHD, depression, etc... are all typical for our highly specialized and differentiated societies. (The most famous examples are the enormous prevalence of autism in Silicon Valley, and the fact that engineers, IT'ers, accountants and other "system thinkers" produce far more autistic offspring than other men).

Our societies are seriously sick. (Simple proof for the fact that these are clearly social problems and not merely "genetic" ones: both in time and in space, the change is consistent - there used to be far less autism in previous decades, and the phenomenon is universal, you find it in all societies that are highly industrialized or in the process of getting there).

My simple and somewhat "aspergerish" question is: when peak oil calls for smaller societies, more communal forms of living, and more social integration, instead of differentiation, technocratization and specialization - what will happen to this mass of (mildly) autistic people? They won't be able to cope, and the therapeutic community (psychiatrists, psychologists) which helped them do so, may no longer exist. These people were extremely useful in highly developed societies, but in "devolved" communities they may no longer function.

During the industrial age, the societal conditions were right for this latent genetic destiny to actually be "expressed". The problem is that societal conditions may change very suddenly due to the oil crash, but genetic expressions are here to stay (they lag behind, they change far more slowly).

Those who are seriously thinking about the social consequences of peak oil (let's just say it's a nice exercise), must take this kind of details into account.

A peak oil disaster scenario may be heaven for those who suffer under depression, neurosis or other minor psychological problems (because they'll get rid of those luxury problems), but it may become hell for those who are seriously afflicted and for who there was an entire specialized community that helped them cope.


(Bizarre how you see the world through different eyes once you know about peak oil and imagine the potential effects of its arrival... Everything changes, and you can relate everything to it!)

[jimmydean]

Interesting offbeat post.

PO era may actually force us to live more naturally which may have a long term positive effect on the species. In the short term the current generation will have a stressful time as we go through the cycle of survival, wealth preservation and planning for the future.

If I were to look at our current lifestyle in the west with a critical eye it's hard not to think it's just not sustainable long term. Clearly a shift to a less energy dependant architecture of our cities, dwellings etc. must prevail for us to survive.

I can't help but think that in the short-term telecommunication infrastructure is going to help us stay productive as we move toward an energy restricted economy.

[panzer]

People with Aspergers in old times probably became tinkers, or scholars, hermits, or even wizards In the post peak future, as opportunities in the IT and engineering sectors dry up, positions for tinkers and hermits will be skyrocketing. They'll probably do alright. I suspect this mild autism, which is as you noted linked to certain kinds of excellence, has always played some adaptive part in human society.

For extreme cases of any mental illness where the person is incapable of interaction with society, maybe we'll see the resurgance of victorian style asylums? In a serious crash thats probably the best that could be hoped for.

[eric_b]

Interesting post.

The link between genetics and autism/aspergers is tenuous at best.

There's actually some pretty good evidence that mercury (thimerosal)
used to preserve vaccines causes autism/aspergers. Apparently children sensitive
to this are not able metabolize the mercury as well. Brains are much more sensitive
to permanent damage at a young age when they are rapidly developing.

http://www.ewg.org/reports/autism/execsumm.php

The fact that autism rates have risen so rapidly in recent times would
indicate some sort of environmental toxin, and not a genetic causation, IMO.
In may simply be that more affluent parents (silicon valley, etc.) are more
likely to have their kids immunized.

I seem to recall the Bush administration closed the door to any potential
lawsuits from parents (sueing drug companies) regarding thimerosal.

Do some googling on thimerosal. It really is nasty stuff. It was one of
many old chemicals that were 'grandfathered' in without extensive
testing as its been used for so long. If thimerosal were discovered today
(like hydrogenating oils - another process that would likely not be
approved by the FDA today) it would likely be banned.

I know a little about this, as I have a mild form of aspergers myself.
I'll probably be one of the first to go, once TSHTF.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eric_b', '
')In may simply be that more affluent parents (silicon valley, etc.) are more
likely to have their kids immunized.

[Doly]

I think you're missing the main point here, lorenzo. The main psychological consequence of peak oil is going to be that the difference between psychologically resilient and adaptable people and those who have problems to cope will suddenly become obvious and clear.

[Ludi]

Depression is hardly a "luxury problem," and those of us who suffer from psychological disorders are hardly likely to have an easier time with the stresses caused by the breakdown of society and the unavailability of medications and other treatments. Why on earth someone would think that a more stressful life would be easier on people with psychological problems, I don't know.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', 'I') think you're missing the main point here, lorenzo. The main psychological consequence of peak oil is going to be that the difference between psychologically resilient and adaptable people and those who have problems to cope will suddenly become obvious and clear.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'D')epression is hardly a "luxury problem,"

[Ludi]

Lorenzo, life in the future will only be the idyll you envision if we're able to build a new social infrastructure, the kind of social infrastructure which communities of the past enjoyed. I don't have that kind of social infrastructure, do you? As far as a less stressful kind of life coming out of less modernity, when I moved to the country from Los Angeles, and worked at my home business instead of in the mega-stressful motion picture industry, I thought all my stress-symptoms would magically go away. Well, what do ya know, they didn't, they ended up getting worse (probably coincidence, since my life really is much less stressful than it was). And now I have to take three kinds of medication for stress-related/stress-exacerbated health problems (high blood pressure and mental illness). So, phooey on your "we'll all be healthy and stress-free in the future" theory!

[rowante]

This is a bit off-topic sorry... for Ludi.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')epression is hardly a "luxury problem," and those of us who suffer from psychological disorders are hardly likely to have an easier time with the stresses caused by the breakdown of society and the unavailability of medications and other treatments. Why on earth someone would think that a more stressful life would be easier on people with psychological problems, I don't know.

[Ludi]

Yeah, rowante, I been and done that, so has my sis, who is currently in the hospital with depression, getting ECT. So, although I think your advice is swell, it really isn't applicable to people with genetic mental illnesses. We already do all that great stuff, yep, we do, and we still have symptoms for which we have to take medications and other treatments. We're both active people who get lots of fresh air & exercise, eat healthy, take vitamins, and don't have observable food allergies (oh, she has a slight seafood allergy).

I understand the good intentions of your post rowante, but I've got to say I'm really super extra deluxe tired of people assuming I don't know squat about me own health problems.

So, I appreciate your helpfulness, but part of me wants to tell you to stick it up yer ass. Really. Don't fucking give me advice.

[OilyMon]

Wow.

[PO_TimeCr0ss]

Woah, Ludi. I understand the logic of your post...but did you really have to curse at him?

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rowante', 'B')oth stem from diets lacking in vitamins and minerals but containing way too much carbs and starches and lack of exercise.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '[') There is a Harvard researcher (who wrote the omega-3 connection) who took people with bipolar disorder (cases considered "lost causes" because they didn't respond to the most high-powered psychotropic meds) and put them on large doses of fish oil. In most if not all cases their bipolar symptoms dissapeared.

[oowolf]

I'm not a psychology expert. I imagine if there IS a catastrophic, systemic crash of petroindustrial civilization, there will be widespread "reactive psychosis". The pathologically dependent nature of the typical fossil fuel-saturated lifestyle will leave most people with no comprehension of what has happened-let alone functional coping skills.
The shock that was obvious after the tsunami-where all landmarks and consensus reality were suddenly removed is probably a good indication of the future state of mind most of the walmart shoppers.
It's painful to even imagine this happening. When it comes I intend to be deep in the Rockies. I don't want to many "images" haunting me.

[lorenzo]

oowolf, true, but on the other hand, things may evolve gradually, making it all a great learning experience, turning all of those SUV addicted phat Walmartians into more conscious, calm people, more detached from materialistic desires.

I'm still keeping the Il Decamerone scenario in the back of my head. Peak Oil may turn out be a wholesome thing for humanity.