by Newfie » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 20:39:36
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'B')ut will it collapse from the bottom or top?
Does it matter? How could you tell?
I am not a conspiracy theorist and I am greatly conflicted about this situation. For a while I have been thinking that financial collapse is our most serious personal threat. I would very much like to see them raise the debt ceiling and get on with BAU at this point. I don' t think that will 'fix' anything, I believe that the whole system is beyond 'fixing.' It will collapse. The only question is; where the pieces fall when the collapse comes.
If THIS is the collapse then I, and most of us here, have missed our window of opportunity to handle the situation in the best possible way. There is more I would like to do before the collapse comes. For one thing I am looking at retirement in April or May. It would be bloody all inconvenient for the MAN to go belly up just as I am coming to collect on promises made. So that would be a VERY personal effect. Still we are better situated to handle the mess than most others.
No, I don't think there is any cure for the cold we have in the US, or for the global economy in general. I hope that those of us who think that there will be a slow unwinding are correct. However I fear that the 'house of cards' which is globalization may have tipping points which we are not aware of. Like the ancient mariners we are wandering off the edge of the known charts, we are in the region where 'there be dragons.' Maybe there are and maybe there are not, frankly I could easily wait a year or a decade to find out.
Be careful, very careful, in what you wish for. You truly do not understand the consequences of these actions.
I do believe that the majority of economists and others who should know are very afraid of a US default and I do believe that they are saying their truth. I think a default would drive us back into a depression, I think we were going there anyway, this is just the express lane. That will then leave us in a very weak economic position and there will be squat all we can do about it. There will be tough times and there will be radical elements who will seek power during those times. Thus I foresee the country taking a very hard turn to the right. I have been thinking this would happen in the run up to the 2016 elections, but it may be that it occurs for the 2012 elections.
With a very hard core conservative government in power I think the US will see some draconian measures to 'fix' the problem and which will result in further loss of personal rights, freedom, and wealth.
If they do figure this out, or if Obama invokes special powers to avoid default, then we have a chance to move forward in a more determined fashion and to make a smoother transition. The operative word here is 'chance.' There are no guarantees that we will take advantage of more time to make good decisions. But at least it would allow me a little bit of breathing room to do some last bit of planning.