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Immediate personal effects of US default?

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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Pops » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 14:02:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'R')egardless, the military's chow lines will remain open, ships will remain at sea, and land forces deployed as they are ordered, pay or no pay, Bob the Enlistee will show up for work, and the military will insure that Bob doesn't starve to death, money or no money.

Unfortunately not true unless you are deployed and if you are deployed your SO depends on that paycheck just like regular folks.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby highlander » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 17:45:57

Do you really believe that not raising the debt ceiling by August 2 will lead to a US debt default? Really?
regardless of action or continued inaction by congresscritters, US credit will be downgraded. this will lead to higher interest rates for all.
It also means the US taxpayers pay the Fed more to print money to pay interest to the Fed. Pretty cool gig, if you are a Fed bank.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 19:00:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'I')t's something like a trillion over 10 years, or about 100 billion per year, from my understanding.

Or maybe more correctly stated, the difference between the Dem and Repub plans is about 1%, a total joke to be fighting over.


Not only that, but the annual "cuts" aren't scheduled to begin until 2013. By which time a new Congress will just just change it. And the irony gets even better.. it's going to have to be some version of the Reid plan that gets passed. With that plan the cuts are just accounting tricks. To even get Dem votes on this, some spending will have to be added to the "cutting" -- like Boehner's $17 billion extra pell grants idea. So after all is said and done, sum total will be more spending after all this "cutting."

The whole thing is silly anyway, given that the GDP is teetering on contraction and any serious gov cuts would be deflationary.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 19:22:05

It's not like the slaves have to produce more gold from them mines.

Just hit the 'start' button on the presses. :lol:
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Oakley » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 19:25:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'T')he whole thing is silly anyway, given that the GDP is teetering on contraction and any serious gov cuts would be deflationary.

Makes it more obvious that this is all pre 2012 election theater. The cuts they are talking about are not real cuts in spending. They are just cuts in the proposed increases in spending, so when all is said and done, spending will go up, not down. It is just a continuation of the road to ruin, where finally at some point in the future the federal government will collapse from the spendthrift ways of those in power.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby vision-master » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 19:28:15

But will it collapse from the bottom or top?
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 20:39:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'B')ut will it collapse from the bottom or top?


Does it matter? How could you tell?

I am not a conspiracy theorist and I am greatly conflicted about this situation. For a while I have been thinking that financial collapse is our most serious personal threat. I would very much like to see them raise the debt ceiling and get on with BAU at this point. I don' t think that will 'fix' anything, I believe that the whole system is beyond 'fixing.' It will collapse. The only question is; where the pieces fall when the collapse comes.

If THIS is the collapse then I, and most of us here, have missed our window of opportunity to handle the situation in the best possible way. There is more I would like to do before the collapse comes. For one thing I am looking at retirement in April or May. It would be bloody all inconvenient for the MAN to go belly up just as I am coming to collect on promises made. So that would be a VERY personal effect. Still we are better situated to handle the mess than most others.

No, I don't think there is any cure for the cold we have in the US, or for the global economy in general. I hope that those of us who think that there will be a slow unwinding are correct. However I fear that the 'house of cards' which is globalization may have tipping points which we are not aware of. Like the ancient mariners we are wandering off the edge of the known charts, we are in the region where 'there be dragons.' Maybe there are and maybe there are not, frankly I could easily wait a year or a decade to find out.

Be careful, very careful, in what you wish for. You truly do not understand the consequences of these actions.

I do believe that the majority of economists and others who should know are very afraid of a US default and I do believe that they are saying their truth. I think a default would drive us back into a depression, I think we were going there anyway, this is just the express lane. That will then leave us in a very weak economic position and there will be squat all we can do about it. There will be tough times and there will be radical elements who will seek power during those times. Thus I foresee the country taking a very hard turn to the right. I have been thinking this would happen in the run up to the 2016 elections, but it may be that it occurs for the 2012 elections.

With a very hard core conservative government in power I think the US will see some draconian measures to 'fix' the problem and which will result in further loss of personal rights, freedom, and wealth.

If they do figure this out, or if Obama invokes special powers to avoid default, then we have a chance to move forward in a more determined fashion and to make a smoother transition. The operative word here is 'chance.' There are no guarantees that we will take advantage of more time to make good decisions. But at least it would allow me a little bit of breathing room to do some last bit of planning.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 20:46:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'R')egardless, the military's chow lines will remain open, ships will remain at sea, and land forces deployed as they are ordered, pay or no pay, Bob the Enlistee will show up for work, and the military will insure that Bob doesn't starve to death, money or no money.

Unfortunately not true unless you are deployed and if you are deployed your SO depends on that paycheck just like regular folks.


Sometime in the '60's the USCG was part of Revenue and for some reason they were not able to be paid. The base commanders went into town and made deals with the local merchants so that they could issue script that the merchants would accept. Essentially they were IOU's based on the word of the base commander. I think that this occurred on two occasions. Now I was not in the Guard at the time but I knew folks who were and heard their stories. I don't know how long these situations lasted but I got the sense that they went on for several weeks if not a couple of months.

Of course the USCG is only something like 25,000 folks and none of the bases are large so this does not relate well to this current situation. Just a related story.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Cog » Sat 30 Jul 2011, 06:54:48

With all the slowdown in GDP and continued high unemployment, has anyone noticed that WTI oil prices are still staying in a $95-100 band? I will continue to maintain that the US can not grow with oil prices that high. The first two quarters of 2011 GDP has shown that correlation.

Regarding default, with all the hyper inflated rhetoric about how living within our budget is tantamount to national suicide, the real point of all this gets obscured. The longer you avoid taking the pain of living within a budget, the worse the pain is going to be when you are forced to. In ten years the amount of interest we pay on the national debt will double. That is assuming that interest rates remain in the 3% range for the government. I can still remember 15% interest rates in the country being a norm. If we get a downgrade and interest rates soar that the government must pay on our debt, we could get to the situation very quickly that every dollar of revenue goes to pay interest.

It very simple, if the growth of the national debt is higher than the growth of GDP, you will go bankrupt. Its that simple math that seems to elude the progressives.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 30 Jul 2011, 07:19:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('highlander', 'D')o you really believe that not raising the debt ceiling by August 2 will lead to a US debt default? Really?
regardless of action or continued inaction by congresscritters, US credit will be downgraded. this will lead to higher interest rates for all.
It also means the US taxpayers pay the Fed more to print money to pay interest to the Fed. Pretty cool gig, if you are a Fed bank.
If you vote for a republican or democrat, you are making a foolish choice. If you are banking with a TBTF bank (Chase, BOA, Goldman, and others), you are aiding and abetting criminal behavior.

Right. Default would be not paying the INTEREST on the federal government debt. I don't see even Capitol Hill's current list of lying gangsters being stupid enough not to do that. Higher interest hurts all but the rich. With the economy so sick, if only long term interest rates go up much, this impedes long term investment -- another knock for job creation, BTW.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('highlander', '
') If you are listening to MSM, you are getting your brain addled. None of these groups have your best interests in mind.

You were doing fine before. Now, if I can't trust the MSM (overall, checking multiple sources to balance potential bias), which groups am I supposed to listen to? What (potentially tin-foil hat) sources do they get THEIR "data" from?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Novus » Sat 30 Jul 2011, 07:53:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('highlander', '
') If you are listening to MSM, you are getting your brain addled. None of these groups have your best interests in mind.

You were doing fine before. Now, if I can't trust the MSM (overall, checking multiple sources to balance potential bias), which groups am I supposed to listen to? What (potentially tin-foil hat) sources do they get THEIR "data" from?


You could look at the numbers yourself and do the Math like I have been doing since 2008. Outstanding debt is already 100% of GDP and is growing by over $1 trillion a year. Trillion isn't a meaningless number it is 1000 billion dollars or $1,000,000,000,000.

Three things got us here:
- Unending Wars
- Tax cuts for the Rich
- Banker Bailouts

Address those and you solve the debt crisis or just default because that works too.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 30 Jul 2011, 08:16:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'T')hat is assuming that interest rates remain in the 3% range for the government. I can still remember 15% interest rates in the country being a norm. If we get a downgrade and interest rates soar that the government must pay on our debt, we could get to the situation very quickly that every dollar of revenue goes to pay interest.

These are moot points.
After default government would have to live within means, all debts would end up not paid (like Soviets did) and so on.
Effectively US would not to be able to engage in international trade for some time (unless gold and plutonium are used as currency) but domestically budget could easily be balanced.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sat 30 Jul 2011, 19:22:45

Well, an immediate semi-personal pre-default effect (FWIW) was when my husband took the kids to the grocery store today. He said there were huge lines of people buying food like it was going to be an ice storm. The cashier told him it had been going on all week; people are worried about the government shutting down and either being furloughed or having their SS/welfare/etc checks not show up.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Cog » Sat 30 Jul 2011, 21:07:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', 'W')ell, an immediate semi-personal pre-default effect (FWIW) was when my husband took the kids to the grocery store today. He said there were huge lines of people buying food like it was going to be an ice storm. The cashier told him it had been going on all week; people are worried about the government shutting down and either being furloughed or having their SS/welfare/etc checks not show up.


Good

The mooch class should be worried about their next meal. Maybe we aren't too far gone to save the Republic from where the moochers have taken it.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 01:24:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', 'W')ell, an immediate semi-personal pre-default effect (FWIW) was when my husband took the kids to the grocery store today. He said there were huge lines of people buying food like it was going to be an ice storm. The cashier told him it had been going on all week; people are worried about the government shutting down and either being furloughed or having their SS/welfare/etc checks not show up.


Huh..

I did grocery shopping today too and noticed it was unusually busy. Didn't make sense since it was early in the morning.. Walmart was packed, everybody and their brother with their hands in the broccoli.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 01:29:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'Y')eah now you are getting it. That is your job to take care of your relatives. Why are you trying to make it mine? Fairness? LOL


I'm not a physician and I'm not a nurse. I also have to work. My aunt needs round the clock care, I can't do that Cog. Could you? Maybe you can afford in home nurses 24/7, I can't.

You know what, this line of conversation is ridiculous. Only in America do we have people wanting to throw the sick and elderly to the lions. Where do you conservatives learn this stuff? Does Rush teach it to you? Do you learn this in church? Was it an Ayn Rand novel?

Let me tell you something about Ayn Rand. When she got old and a little feeble, somebody sat her down and told her regardless of all the crap she'd been spouting for decades she needed to sign up for her Social Security and Medicare so she could get medical treatment. She "reluctantly" agreed, but signed up for these socialist collectivist programs nonetheless.

EDIT: and another thing.. Medicare and SS aren't charity, my elderly relatives have paid into these programs their entire working lives. Nobody told them in 1960 that a Tea Party in 2011 would just renege on the whole thing. They did the honest thing their whole life, they paid their taxes every week and worked hard. Now you want to take it away from them when they're the most vulnerable, when they're too old to work anymore or may have alzheimers.

How is it you see no fiduciary responsibility here? It wouldn't be right to seize all your stocks and gold, what makes it right to take something working folks have paid into all these decades?

I don't want to hear we can't afford it, THAT IS BS. Rich Americans have bought up half the mines and farmland in Australia, for God's sake. Rich Americans seem to have an extra $20 billion dollars for FARMVILLE and a hundred billion for FACEBOOK, so there is no good reason here to toss the elderly into the street. The fact we even have to discuss this makes me want to move to Canada where people aren't batsh*t crazy fascists.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Cog » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 07:28:15

I wonder if those people who paid into social security and medicare all their lives ever ran the math on the programs or did they simply believe their congress critters that the programs were sustainable. Either way, the result is the same. Both of the programs are Ponzi schemes which rely on unlimited growth, which is now off the table with peak oil.

Now you may think I'm cruel and heartless towards those of advanced age. I'm just realistic on what is getting ready to happen to them. If they sat around all their lives and believed the government to take care of them at the end of it, they are going to be sorely disappointed. People of means and people with close family ties are going to survive. Those who have neither are going to die. Its just that way and me wishing it wasn't won't change the math. If I wanted to hide my head in the sand like our 535 Congress people do, how does that make me better off?
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Cloud9 » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 07:47:18

I'm a conservative and I don't want to throw anyone under the bus, but with limited resources there is a limit to what any of us can do.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 07:49:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'I') wonder if those people who paid into social security and medicare all their lives ever ran the math on the programs or did they simply believe their congress critters that the programs were sustainable.


Republicans were against it way back then. They called FDR a traitor to his class (rich folk). Republicans have wanted to kill Social Security from day one, you guys never give up, here it is 2011 and these programs are 70 or 80 years old and you still act like this is some new fangled idea that can't possibly work. :roll:

Your side is winning for now Cog. But look to history. We had guilded ages in the past and great men like Jackson and Teddy Roosevelt and FDR rose up to set things right.

You're winning for now, but your side has overplayed its hand. History indicates you'll wind up forcing a new wave of socialism and new progressive ideas to set right all the damage you've done.
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Re: Immediate personal effects of US default?

Unread postby Cog » Sun 31 Jul 2011, 07:59:20

You are forgetting something Sixstrings and it amazes me that you do since you are on a peak oil board. Peak oil makes growth impossible and all ponzi schemes like SS and Medicare are based on unlimited growth. I think you have seen the GDP numbers for the first and second quarter this year. If that didn't give you a clue that things are headed to another recession, I can't help you here.
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