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Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby smiley » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 17:59:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's the problem with the "foreigners will buy you all out" nonsense.


I don't believe this is "nonsence". The problem is that most people, like you just did, value a company by a set of numbers, such as assets property etc.

But a company is far more than just a set of buildings. It's greatest value lays in the experience that has been accumulated within this company throughout its existence. This experience sometimes has a tanglible form such as patents and licences, but in many cases is hidden in various forms of methodologies, workmanship etc.

This is something the MBA exceljockeys don't understand, but the Chinese do. They don't want to buy America they just want to copy it. They just need to buy the blueprints.

Anyway back on the negotiations.

For me after a few days of constant meetings the fatigue sets in. In the end you don't care whether you make the deal or blow the deal, or what the consequences are of either choice. Fatigue does strange things to people. It even makes a CEO of BP on television cry out that he want's his life back.

These guys are of course professional politicians and hardened negotiators. But on the other hand they have been going at it for weeks at end. They must be tired to the point where it becomes hard to think straight. I guess that some of the emotional comments of Obama lately can be ascribed to fatigue.

The thought of having politicians decide over the economic future when they are wide awake is bad enough. Wouldn't it be wiser to just raise the debt ceiling now, to get the bills payed, and restart the negotiations on the accompanying economic measures after a break?
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby AgentR11 » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 18:25:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'B')ut a company is far more than just a set of buildings. It's greatest value lays in the experience that has been accumulated within this company throughout its existence. This experience sometimes has a tanglible form such as patents and licences, but in many cases is hidden in various forms of methodologies, workmanship etc.


Certainly that is true; and you've moved the bar by bringing it up. China most certainly will, and has been, buying (or stealing) intellectual property and expertise by the boatload. Nothing unusual there. However, that doesn't dictate ownership of the means of production, and doesn't prevent those assets from being utilized or taxed. This turns it into just a normal import / export matter, and we've decided as a country, that we really like cheap junk in Walmart, more than we like well paying jobs. I don't know that I much like that choice, but its fair to say that is the choice that the American consumers have made.

That said, a debt default will gut the value of the dollar, and completely reverse the tables on China's wage scale advantage. This is true because the Treasury will not permit the liquid market to seize, and there is a current glut of unemployed workers who want jobs. IE, dollar will fall and remain liquid, *and* common wages will not rise. This is really, REALLY going to suck for servant class workers stuck living in a small apartment and burning most of their income on non-discretionary items like bread and water. (lol Hope and Change on steroids!)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he thought of having politicians decide over the economic future when they are wide awake is bad enough. Wouldn't it be wiser to just raise the debt ceiling now, to get the bills payed, and restart the negotiations on the accompanying economic measures after a break?


No. The debt limit is the *last* piece of leverage the legislative bodies have.
Time is now. If they're gonna raise it without getting spending under control, they might as well repeal the limit all together, and pass a "do whatever you feel like, Lord President". bill. And go home.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Cog » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 19:07:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', 'I') predict that Obarfa will invoke the 14th Amendment so as to declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional.

What would be consequences of such a move as per your opinion?


Civil war IMO
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby prajeshbhat » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 22:52:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')asic rule, you can't buy something substantial without putting upward pressure on its price.


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That only works under normal conditions, when somebody else id willing to pay more than you. If there is hyperinflation followed by depression, nobody would be putting an upward pressure on prices. In most big corporations, the largest shareholders are not individual billionaires, its institutional investors(big banks) who just don't care about the companies or people. There will be a fire-sale of these assets.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby AgentR11 » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 00:36:25

That's probably why we come to different conclusions on this, I'm fairly certain there are, and will be interested buyers in a hyperinflation environment, even if Bob Average is experiencing a depression and poor wage prospects.

I also think it would be foolish to sell off in a hyperinflation environment; you'll get tagged with a ridiculously high amount of capital gains taxes without having really gained any value at all. And if you are sitting in cash when its happening, you'll take a huge loss on value. Basically, if you have enough in commodities as a buffer, I can't think of anything better than to be sitting on dividend yielding, asset heavy companies. Their balance sheets will ride the inflation; and you have decent prospects of getting some return as dividends catch up to inflated values after a year or few...
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby PrestonSturges » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 00:57:34

For a long time I have said that the Tea Party has tapped into sort of a nihilistic Khmer Rogue impulse, and they are absolutely determined to have some sort of smashup.

I have also been saying that they are inevitably moving towards some sort of Night Of The Long Knives where the national party dumps them.

I'm not sure what happens to the politicians that tried to ride that wave. Boehner did not buy into it as heavily as Cantor. Tonight Boehner looks ruined, but it may be Cantor that loses.

At the local level, in the places where they took power in 2010, public sentiment is building against them. We'll see how that works out.....
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby prajeshbhat » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 01:09:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') also think it would be foolish to sell off in a hyperinflation environment; you'll get tagged with a ridiculously high amount of capital gains taxes without having really gained any value at all. And if you are sitting in cash when its happening, you'll take a huge loss on value. Basically, if you have enough in commodities as a buffer, I can't think of anything better than to be sitting on dividend yielding, asset heavy companies.


Hyperinflation will be followed by a depression. These companies are only dividend yielding and asset heavy as long as there is a functioning formal economy and a powerful government that can protect it. Without them there will be chaos on the streets and die-off in the markets. The rich owners of these companies don't want to hang around when everyone is calling for their heads. There will be a fire-sale. So, they will sell everything, mostly to foreigners and run to their hideouts(also in foreign countries). Recently there was an attempt to sell the big Greek assets to foreign counties in order to raise funds. Turns out nobody bought them because the public in greece was willing to defend their national assets by all means necessary. Americans don't have national assets. They only have private property. Who is going to defend that.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby mad_marten » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 01:49:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')prajeshbhat wrote:But the way things are going, most probably the government will continue to go full steam ahead of deficits until it self-destructs into oblivion overnight.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')This is exactly the philosophy behind STB. Cutting spending was found to be politically impossible. Republicans tried and tried but would be on the losing end politically for a long time. But, cutting taxes was popular. Thus came the Republican-developed, but Democrat-accepted doctrine that "deficits don't matter", tax cuts do. There was a lot of talk about how cutting taxes would lead to more revenue due to the growth it would induce. I think some may have believed this, but most had their eye on the day when the debt burden would crush the government. I had one friend who is a right-wing local Republican operative tell me in the early 90's that he thought he only way to reduce the government was to force-feed it until it was bloated and then kick it in the stomach.


So I just learned about about this Starve The Beast (STB) and everything since GWB, (well and Reagan) makes more sense. For a little refresher, this a right-wing political strategy that relies on on cutting/strangulating government funding in order to force the cutting of undesirable entitlements, rather than directly cutting spending, because that has proven politically difficult.

Brilliant and/or insidious depending on how you look at it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast

So basically GWB tax cuts were designed to specifically achieve the deficits we have now, not a miscalculation. Yes, that's right. The ultimate cynicism. Now Dick cheney and all neo-con bull makes just a bit more sense. Mission accomplished. Wow, I don't know how I actually feel. Except for expanding the the Fed. Govt by launching 2 wars (and now a 3rd in Libya) hardly makes the beast smaller. Just turns it loose on those A-rabs. humm..
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 02:46:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mad_marten', ' ')GWB tax cuts were designed to specifically achieve the deficits we have now, not a miscalculation. Yes, that's right.


Yup. Bush had already figured out in 2001 exactly what would happen over the next decade. Bush designed his tax cuts so that Obama would extend the Bush tax cuts in 2010 and waste trillions of dollars on his porkulus, budget supplements, an expanded war in Afghanistan, and various bailouts in order to create the record >1 trillion dollars deficits in each of the last three years. And so it is thanks to Obama's stupidity and spinelessness that Bush's evil plans were consummated, long after Bush himself left office. Bwah ha ha.

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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby mad_marten » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 03:09:40

PA, are you claiming that Bush et al. wasn't aware and/or proponents of STB?

Any action of Obama (good/bad or ugly) doesn't absolve Bush. It seems Obama made shrewd/shameless political calculation to not be blamed for raising taxes right in the middle of the 2nd great depression.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 03:52:45

It seems that last 2 Emperors were not really good in balancing budget...
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 07:05:21

The dems want to take care of the "least fortunate", with no limit, to get elected.

The GOP wants to fund "defense" with no limit, AND lower taxes no matter what, to get elected.

Neither approach faces the necessity to pay our bills over time.

We're now being confronted with the fact that we are indeed a banana republic, and that the bills cannot be paid. (If we tried to actually balance the budget, it would crush the economy like a bug, weak as it already is).

I am not religious, but phrases like "reaping what we sow" are coming to mind.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby AusJake » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 08:22:28

I can see why dictatorships are preferable... for the dictators. China is doing quite well, though debatable if thats entirely because of the U.S
Democratic society has proven that beaucracy and political correctness will impede on progress. So, choose your poison, democracy, or dictatorship?
I'm starting to lean towards electing a dictator who will judge whats best for the people. The people only want lower taxes, and at times that is not in the best interest of the nation.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 08:32:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')We're now being confronted with the fact that we are indeed a banana republic, and that the bills cannot be paid.

Dems and Reps are the same.
I like to observe recent debt theater but I am afraid that an outcome of this charade is already known for elites who are paying these actors.

All your hope in Hobbits from Tea Party, but who knows, may be they are also bribed by Lord Sauron of Mordor?
They may well decide not to destroy the Ring of Power.
They may proudly wear it instead...

And someone (Michael Panzner?) already have said that America already is "banana republic", but the one which doesn't grow bananas.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Timo » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 09:35:11

To the victor go the spoils. Who the victor is in this fight, i have no idea, but whoever wins, i say let 'em have it. This mess they've created is all theirs now. They have the responsibility for providing for American prosperity, only now they have to do it for free.

Hey! ".....land of the free and home of the brave." This is the land where everything is free, and only the brave can get it. THAT"S their whole platform! Be brave. Stand up to everyone. Defy logic and the greedy, sensless needs of "the country club poor people," and eventually, everyone's needs will be met free of charge. Who needs money and revenues to run a government, anyway? We can start any war we want and not pay for it. We can sell anyone a house who wants one with no expectation that they actually pay for it. We can subsidize farmers to grow crops for the masses and keep food ridiculously cheap. Ditto for gas and oil. Who needs money? Everything's fine!
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby vision-master » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 09:51:14

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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby mad_marten » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 12:19:05

good song
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Plantagenet » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 12:28:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mad_marten', ' ')It seems Obama made shrewd/shameless political calculation to not be blamed for raising taxes right in the middle of the 2nd great depression.


You must live on bizarro earth, where everything is backwards.

Here on normal earth Obama has been calling for higher taxes for years right in the middle of the 2nd great depression...from Obamacare "fees" and carbon offset taxes in 2009 to his ineffective 2010 election push to just this month when the Obama-led debt ceiling talks collapsed because Obama insisted on raising taxes on corporate jets and other plutocratic evils Obama has consistently backed a wide variety of tax increases.

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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Timo » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 16:06:11

The bills from the Bush wars finally came due. Remember that he and the Congress refused to include their costs in the annual budget process, and were allocating funds on an as needed basis, all without any revenues to pay for them. They knew full well that the next president would get stuck with the bill for those unpaid wars, and then the Repugs would pounce on him for not being able to pay trillions in unpaid bills on only billions in revenues. In fact, during the current budget debates, he hasn't called for any tax increases at all, but only the closure of loopholes and exemptions that aren't really necessary for the Big Six to make billions in profits. But, i agree. It's better to enable monstrous profits all at the expense of people who can't afford a corporate jet.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby mad_marten » Fri 29 Jul 2011, 16:34:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou must live on bizarro earth, where everything is backwards.

Here on normal earth Obama has been calling for higher taxes for years right in the middle of the 2nd great depression...from Obamacare "fees" and carbon offset taxes in 2009 to his ineffective 2010 election push to just this month when the Obama-led debt ceiling talks collapsed because Obama insisted on raising taxes on corporate jets and other plutocratic evils Obama has consistently backed a wide variety of tax increases.


I was referring specifically to the extension of the Bush tax cuts.

It certainly does seem like we are in bizarro world with everything going on, and it looks like things are going to get worse. Obama had proposed closing many loopholes and exemptions as part of his grand bargain and it wasn't good for TP/GOP. Its was a win for them if they wanted it (it would have simplified tax code), but because they are in lockstep with Warlock Norquist they wouldn't.

If you claim that the Country's fiscal situation is so bad that you need to blow the country up to save it, then isn't it crazy/hypocritical to not consider all options.

It's like republican's will insist on using a nuke on an ant mound, because by God its their nuke and damn everyone else with an idea or who might be collateral damage.

Don't get me wrong don't have any lost love for Obama. He is proving himself a lukewarm politician of the worst kind.
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