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Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Keith_McClary » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 22:59:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'M')eans testing for SS and Medicare is a logical first approach.
How about means testing for paying taxes?
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Cog » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 06:20:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gollum', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'M')eans testing for SS and Medicare is a logical first approach.




Isn't that punishing the saver? Something I would think you should be against? From my experience when we means test a hell of a lot of people manipulate the system in order to qualify. I think if the government gives a benefit it needs to be the same for everyone, and if that means a more modest benefit than so be it. A modest level of healthcare for all is far more effecient than a generous benefit for some.


The programs are not sustainable and need to be done away with completely. Since I'm not a heartless person, this is a first step to destroying these programs while maintaining a pittance for the mooch class so their starvation won't be readily apparent.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Timo » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 09:59:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bill Hicks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gollum', 'I')'m sitting here wondering if in the long run it wouldn't be better to have Obama and the Republicans crash the financial system and put the nation and society in a position of being able to start fresh?


Start fresh? I'm not trying to be mean, but have you taken a good look at the average condition of your fellow citizens lately? Many of them are fat, lazy, ignorant and utterly incapable of surviving without the system's support. And I'm not just talking about the welfare and social security recipients. Some of the zombies I see walking around in my area would go into a mass panic if their IPhones stopped working and they couldn't text all day long anymore.

There won't be a fresh start, just rampant chaos, violence and destitution.


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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Oakley » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 10:33:41

What I would like to see is no increase in the debt limit, no increases in taxes, fines, or fees, but elimination of special privilege from the tax code with reduction in the rates on the average man to offset the higher collections associated with elimination of these privileges. This would make the federal government live within its means.

I would follow Ron Paul's advice to close all military bases on foreign soil, end all the wars, and end all foreign aid. I would means test Social Security and Medicare, and eliminate a host of federal departments, most of which are unconstitutional and and destructive of freedom and economic activity.

As far as the existing bonded debt, most of it came into existence by banks creating out of thin air checking account balances to loan to the federal government so the banks could collect interest from us. Default on any of it held by the Federal Reserve Bank or any of the big banks.

Because the default on the debt would likely collapse the banks, I would first coin all the gold and silver held by the government and distribute it pro-rata to the population so that we would have real money to use when the debt based, bank created money becomes worthless.

I would require banks to hold 100% reserves in gold and silver against their deposit liabilities, preventing them from creating credit out of thin air.

I would assess a penalty on all current and past elected Congressmen and Presidents equal to the increase in their personal wealth during their terms in office, and eliminate any retirement benefit, instead giving them the same means tested Social Security and Medicare the rest of us are stuck with.

I would turn over Bush and Obama to the World Court to be prosecuted for war crimes; many others are responsible too, but this would be more symbolic than seeking justice since there are thousands more truly responsible for the crimes our government has committed in our names, making true justice difficult to achieve.

I would legalize all drugs and end this war on the US public.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Pops » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 11:47:30

While we're defaulting on the debt, lets understand who holds it:

    Hong Kong: $121.9 billion (0.9 percent)
    Caribbean banking centers: $148.3 (1 percent)
    Taiwan: $153.4 billion (1.1 percent)
    Brazil: $211.4 billion (1.5 percent)
    Oil exporting countries: $229.8 billion (1.6 percent)
    Mutual funds: $300.5 billion (2 percent)
    Commercial banks: $301.8 billion (2.1 percent)
    State, local and federal retirement funds: $320.9 billion (2.2 percent)
    Money market mutual funds: $337.7 billion (2.4 percent)
    United Kingdom: $346.5 billion (2.4 percent)
    Private pension funds: $504.7 billion (3.5 percent)
    State and local governments: $506.1 billion (3.5 percent)

    Japan: $912.4 billion (6.4 percent)
    U.S. households: $959.4 billion (6.6 percent)
    China: $1.16 trillion (8 percent)
    The U.S. Treasury: $1.63 trillion (11.3 percent)
    Social Security trust fund: $2.67 trillion (19 percent)


The blue is us, we owe ourselves 2/3 of the debt or $9.8T of the $14T - or should I say we've borrowed that much from our future earnings.

http://www.businessinsider.com/who-owns-us-debt-2011-7
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Oakley » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 11:58:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')hile we're defaulting on the debt, lets understand who holds it.

The blue is us, we owe ourselves 2/3 of the debt or $9.8T of the $14T - or should I say we've borrowed that much from our future earnings.


The deal is that it can't possibly be paid, even under the rosiest of assumptions, and since peak oil is highly likely to cause long term and almost continual economic contraction, things will likely only get worst. The idea is to get out of this mess with the least damage in the future.

As long as a huge portion of the incomes of businesses and people are drained, either directly to pay their own debts and interest, or indirectly to pay interest on government debt, the deflationary drag will be immense. This means that instead of being able to use our assets for things like alternative energy investments, energy efficient stuff, and for the relocalization that will be necessary for survival, we will instead be turning our assets over to the wealthy and the banking cartel who originally created the money out of thin air to loan to us so that we would become debt slaves. Is it no wonder that the majority are being driven into poverty and wealth becomes increasingly concentrated in the hands of the few.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Pops » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 12:14:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oakley', 'T')he deal is that it can't possibly be paid,


I'm no math whiz but I paid off a mortgage that was 300% of my income in 20 years, the US only owes 100% of GDP doesn't it? The majority of the debt is from Bush tax cuts for the rich, The Bush/Cheney/Haliburton Wars and the recession and recession bailouts that came at the end of the Bush term.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oakley', '.')..peak oil is highly likely to cause long term and almost continual economic contraction, things will likely only get worst. The idea is to get out of this mess with the least damage in the future.


There is that. But on the other hand, flirting with default will raise interest rates right now and not change anything. Defaulting completely just isn't going to happen, it's like saying the UD$ will become worthless, it's just the latest installment of Overnight Armageddon - the internet role playing game
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Mesuge » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 12:32:49

100% debt?
Basically, every developed nation is in the red in multiples of that number. You have to add corporate, private, muni debt, the black hole of aging infrustructure, plus the world of derivatives of many kinds and that's just the start.

And what is a default? Who is the judge? It could be named - pig lipsticked in many ways, the agony could go on for years.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Pops » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 12:54:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', '[')b]100% debt?
Basically, every developed nation is in the red in multiples of that number. You have to add corporate, private, muni debt, the black hole of aging infrustructure, plus the world of derivatives of many kinds and that's just the start.

But of course we aren't talking about paying off every derivative gamble and credit card in the world, we're talking about making the next installment of the federal debt.[/quote]
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Plantagenet » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 14:40:02

The US can't afford to pay down the debt right now....the budget is so out of whack that about 40 cents of every dollar the government spends is borrowed. Congress is going to have to raise the debt ceiling just so we can borrow more money to pay the interest on the money we've already borrowed.

The federal debt has grown from 10 to 14 trillion just since Obama took office. It will grow by something like 1.4-1.6 trillion this year alone, depending on how much the Republicans can cut from Obama's spending in spite of his non-stop squealing.

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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby vision-master » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 14:46:29

No debt, no spending, no money.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Pops » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 15:10:50

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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Mesuge » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 15:13:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', '[')b]100% debt?
Basically, every developed nation is in the red in multiples of that number. You have to add corporate, private, muni debt, the black hole of aging infrustructure, plus the world of derivatives of many kinds and that's just the start.

But of course we aren't talking about paying off every derivative gamble and credit card in the world, we're talking about making the next installment of the federal debt.


Well, and that's the point, all these debt snakes are meddling in the same dark hole, you can't just wish upon a star, overdoze on ever increasing shots of hopium, focusing to "solve" only the fed deficit. That's what will ultimately brake the neck, this is scary scary stuff.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Plantagenet » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 17:21:05

1. A tax cut isn't spending.

2. Some tax cuts stimulate the economy, resulting in more jobs and more tax revenue then would have been generated without the tax cuts.

3. Some tax increases damage the economy, resulting in fewer jobs and less tax revenue then would've been generated without the tax increases.

Any government policy has to be intelligently designed to work properly. Obama's policies just aren't working so far.

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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby vision-master » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 17:33:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). Some tax cuts stimulate the economy, resulting in more jobs and more tax revenue then would have been generated without the tax cuts.


Worked real good under Bush, eh?

Tax cut's for the wealthy an more jobs offshored?
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Daniel_Plainview » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 17:36:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'O')bama's policies just aren't working so far.


Obama's "policy" is to implore the Fed to do everything humanly possible to keep interest rates at zero, so that Obimbo can max out the US debt. This "policy" has been working brilliantly so far ... that is, until the Day of Reckoning arrives ...
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 18:26:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '[')img]http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/jamesfallows/24editorial_graph2-popup.gif[/img]


Way to go pops. Publish figures that only a completely biased and economically illiterate hard line leftist would believe.

That will DEFINITELY shed light on the real issue.

Of course, this IS very consistent with Obama's rhetoric, which STILL is: "It's all George Bush's and the evil republican's fault".

For example, naturally, don't include the new war Obama got us into. Naturally, assume that giving 32 million people free healthcare and many more heavily subsidised health care will cost basically nothing, even as the legislation continues to be written. Naturally, don't hold Obama accountable for not keeping his promise to get us the hell out of the two Middle East he so loudly complained about during his campaign. Naturally, don't hold him accountable for policies which cost millions of jobs which he promised to create or "save". For pushing for every social program in sight. The list could go on and on.

Yeah, a fair and balanced discussion that I'm sure MSNBC would be proud of! I'm sure glad we got all THAT figured out! :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby vision-master » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 19:20:15

Outcast_Searcher, still driving taht ol red-neck 4x4 truck? :)
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby Livewire713 » Tue 26 Jul 2011, 21:09:55

Outcast_Searcher - $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ay to go pops. Publish figures that only a completely biased and economically illiterate hard line leftist would believe.


Those figures look correct to me and Im hardly a illiterate hard line leftist. 32 million getting free healthcare? Not from "Obamacare". I don't like the heathcare law but my beef is over the individual mandates, a Republican idea. The millions of jobs that were lost were at the end of Bushs term, we did hit the bottom when Obama took office, since then it has leveled off. The majority of lost jobs now are state and federal workers. Huge social programs Obama pushed? How about the unfunded Republican Medicare Part D. Please provide this list of Obama's billion dollar social programs you have. Its also ridiculous to compare Libya to the clusterf#ck that George Bush got us into in Iraq. I would say it was Great Britain that pushed for action in Libya not us.
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Re: Bold Predictions about the Debt Ceiling

Postby patience » Thu 28 Jul 2011, 08:49:27

Based on historical precedents, here's my bold prediction, FWIW.

-Punt for now, as someone else said, to kick the can as best and as far as they are able.
-Grab all available monies as required to keep the game going.
-Since they took SS funds long ago and lately govt. pensions, the next likely options are private pension funds.
-Somewhere around the time the dollar goes in the crapper, PM confiscation will come around, "in the national interest".
-More big corps will be "bailed out" = nationalized, in a more flagrant manner, to keep the banana republic funded.
-More money will be "printed", digitally of course, until we reach something like the status of 2004 Argentina, or Zimbabwe.
-If we are fortunate, the US will settle out into something vaguely resembling present day Mexico, or Venezuela. Without the oil resources, of course.
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