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Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 16:59:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'T')here's no point in Saudi Arabia (or anyone else) to pump a lot of extra oil ... - they simply didn't have enough customers for an overpriced product. So what looked like a flattening of production was due to a flattening of demand.
And when it gets even more overpriced there will be even fewer customers. So what looks like declining production will actually be due to declining demand.

BTW, I asked in an edit above:
Also, since you mention EROEI in your sig, do you know of any charts of NET oil production (i.e., after subtracting the oil equivalent energy used to produce it)?
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby Pops » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 17:38:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')There's no point in Saudi Arabia (or anyone else) to pump a lot of extra oil just to tell the peakers "yuck yuck" - they simply didn't have enough customers for an overpriced product.

Basically then for that time period from say '03 to '08 as the price was rising 100% per year, the "law" of supply and demand was repealed. Producers had plenty more oil but just didn't feel like selling at near all-time real record prices. Wow!

All this time I was under the impression that supply greater than demand brought prices down but now you're saying that isn't the case, when the market is oversupplied the price tends to rise!

So... when oil production declines ... The price will get lower!!!

My God, just look at all the time I've wasted posting here when the answer was right there!
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby peeker01 » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 17:46:50

Traders, Pops, I've been trying to tell you, it's futures traders.

http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 18:28:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'B')asically then for that time period from say '03 to '08 as the price was rising 100% per year, the "law" of supply and demand was repealed. Producers had plenty more oil but just didn't feel like selling at near all-time real record prices. Wow!

That made no sense whatsoever. The last paragraph completely avoided mention of the consumer - who, after all, is the one who has to pay for the stuff. One can "feel" like selling all one wants, but if the customers don't show up you're feelings are just gonna be hurt.

I "feel" like selling my 2008 Ford Focus for $100,000. Wanna buy it from me?

Here, let's help ya out:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')asically then for that time period from say '03 to '08 as the price was rising 100% per year, the "law" of supply and demand was perfectly predictable. Since the price had risen so much, consumers didn't feel like paying exhorbitant prices for the stuff, and cut back on consumption as they could. Then, having fewer customers to buy the stuff, producers didn't produce as much as they could have.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 18:31:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')ll this time I was under the impression that supply greater than demand brought prices down ...

Eventually, it did.

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 18:41:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')ll this time I was under the impression that supply greater than demand brought prices down but now you're saying that isn't the case, when the market is oversupplied the price tends to rise!

So... when oil production declines ... The price will get lower!!!

That's exactly what happened. When the price started tanking in late 2008, so did production.
Last edited by copious.abundance on Mon 25 Jul 2011, 19:27:08, edited 1 time in total.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 19:28:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', 'B')TW, I asked in an edit above:
Also, since you mention EROEI in your sig, do you know of any charts of NET oil production (i.e., after subtracting the oil equivalent energy used to produce it)?

I don't actually take EROEI too seriously, I just put that there because I know the peakers here do.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby Pops » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 19:51:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') "feel" like selling my 2008 Ford Focus for $100,000. Wanna buy it from me?

Now I know you are just arguing to argue, no one believes a glut equals a high price, not even you.

Commodities are sold at "auction".

Your ford commodity is not worth $100k because there are other fords in the marketplace so the price is bid down to the market price, the only way to get $100k for a ford is if there are not enough to meet demand and people really want a ford.

But, you are arguing that oil does not act like all other commodities where more supply brings down price, you say oil price is high even though the market is supplied and more supply would not change the price.

Tell me you think supply and demand applies to every traded commodity except oil?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 20:03:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')How come the production trend since 1983 is continuing?


You're so full of shit your eyes are brown. If you took a laxative you'd disappear.

Image

Nifty chart, Pops.
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 21:21:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', ' ')How come the production trend since 1983 is continuing?


You're so full of shit your eyes are brown. If you took a laxative you'd disappear.

Image

Nifty chart, Pops.

Whoa! Cherry-picking short term trends! Talk about full of shit!

Since TheDude didn't seem interested in clicking on my link, and if he did he wasn't interested in actually looking at it, I'll help him out some here:

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 21:34:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I') "feel" like selling my 2008 Ford Focus for $100,000. Wanna buy it from me?

Now I know you are just arguing to argue, no one believes a glut equals a high price, not even you.

Commodities are sold at "auction".

Your ford commodity is not worth $100k because there are other fords in the marketplace so the price is bid down to the market price, the only way to get $100k for a ford is if there are not enough to meet demand and people really want a ford.

But, you are arguing that oil does not act like all other commodities where more supply brings down price, you say oil price is high even though the market is supplied and more supply would not change the price.

Tell me you think supply and demand applies to every traded commodity except oil?

You're whole argument presumes that price is always determined by supply and demand fundamentals, when everybody and his kid brother knows otherwise. I never said oil does not act like other commodities - oil, like other commodities (and indeed all other goods) are often the victim of bubbles, where prices rise all out of proportion to supply and demand fundamentals. I could show you a zillion examples of this, not just in oil, but I hope you're smart enough that I don't need to. When a bubble occurs, prices rise beyond what most are willing to pay for it ... which ends up popping the bubble. This is exactly what happened to oil in 2008, and in a zillion other commodities a zillion other times.

And yes, more supply did bring also down the price. It's no coincidence that the same month the price peaked, a new monthly production record was set in July 2008 - which was probably the straw that broke the camel's back and set into motion the popping of the bubble.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 21:57:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')But, you are arguing that oil does not act like all other commodities where more supply brings down price, you say oil price is high even though the market is supplied and more supply would not change the price.

Tell me you think supply and demand applies to every traded commodity except oil?

Pops, actually, demand for petroleum based products, such as gasoline and heating oil is highly inelastic. People NEED to get to work and the grocery store, and will pay more for gasoline and to heat their homes (and less for other things) FAR more readily than for increases in other commodities.

For example: grains -- they can buy other types of food (substitution). PM's - they can do without, or with less jewelry, or older computers.

Especially for folks who don't live in metro areas with effective mass transit -- there basically ARE no reasonable substitutes. Plus Americans, by their attitude, are largely addicted to their cars. Thus, a HIGHLY inelastic demand for crude oil based products.

I am NOT stating that this magicially repeals the laws of supply and demand. I AM saying, however, that until prices get extreme, it greatly skews things since people will buy to maintain their lifestyle. (Whine they will. Change they won't).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 22:32:32

That's rich, I get the exact opposite conclusion:

Image

My graph's got that extra bit of resolution that goes the extra mile in illustrating a point. And of course temporary trends mean nothing, eh?

Image

Still can't figure out to slap a trend line on a chart? I just did these with MS paint and a bit of copy/paste for gridlines, nothing scientific.

Cool, searching for 'World Oil Production' on Google Images one of the first hits is some of my work:

Image

Wonder what the head count is shaping up to be this year. I imagine now OF2 will link to some piece on creating new producing nations. :idea: :-x

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'H')ey welcome back. Just in time for the crap storm. But you must be careful not to annoy Oily, otherwise he will stop finding oil for us.


Every now and then I check the latest posts, to see if anything's changed, which of course hasn't. It's actually probably a better site for the latest in AGW data now.
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby peeker01 » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 22:36:26

I been wondering about that. I came here to learn more about PO, but it is hardly being discussed
much anymore. Any theories on that........
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 22:51:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'A')ctually, if you look at the longer-term chart you'll notice c&c production is more-or-less continuing to follow the trajectory it's been following since about 1983.

Thank you, TheDude, for providing that chart. You now agree with exactly what I said in the first place on page 1.

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Wanted: World oil production figures/chart

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 25 Jul 2011, 23:07:18

My chart shows we are right on schedule. So THERE!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '[')img]http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/7746/oilproduction.gif[/img]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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