[AgentR11]

Boys will be boys.

[peeker01]

Kub- The recession started in Dec 2007. The crash occured in July 2008. Your position is
indefensible based solely on supply and demand. Speaking of which, I have never said
that futures traders work in a vacuum. There must be some sort of underlying supply
issue to have a plausible runup in prices. OPEC has been doing a marvelous job of matching
supply with demand. Remember, I believe in peak oil too. Not on the same time schedule as
most of you, but I still store food in the bedroom closet!

Since the arabs shut off the oil in 1973, some sort of supply shock has creeped into
the market on a recurring basis. Hurricanes, wars, refinery fires, opec squeezes,
gasoline blending shortages yadayadayada...... But there is never a real shortage.
Have you been inconvenienced since 1973 in your consumption of oil? There's
always enough, if you dig deep enough into your pocket.

Time will tell, but I think that Goldman will prove to be just as crooked as Enron.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'O')PEC has been doing a marvelous job of matching
supply with demand.

[peeker01]

That's the million dollar question, huh Pop's. I'll do you one better! How did it go down
to the 70 year average in Dec 2008, with only a marginal decrease in demand?

[SeaGypsy]

How silly. How long did it stay down? A couple of months, with no bottom to the valley, spike straight back up.
I don't think you understand speculation peeker. It only takes a few percentage points difference in demand to make a huge difference to contract pricing.

[AgentR11]

The problem is a combination of a commodity that is fairly cheap to produce; but whose total volume is limited, and whose economic result is very high.

As long as the market demands just a bit less than the total volume velocity, price stays reasonable; but if the market demand taps the total available, and would like even more; the price goes up until the end economic result of the least profitable activity becomes unsustainable. Once that economic activity is priced out of the market, the spike can halt; if longer term economic damage happens in the process, demand falls back well below production, and the price collapses.

That's the truthful expression of the marketplace that the futures contracts embody.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'T')hat's the million dollar question, huh Pop's. I'll do you one better! How did it go down
to the 70 year average in Dec 2008, with only a marginal decrease in demand?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow did it go down
to the 70 year average in Dec 2008, with only a marginal decrease in demand?

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'W')ell, I feel like we are making some progress. All three of you admit that obscene profits
are being generated by oil futures traders. To do so, price movement has to occur, either up or
down. That's where the problem is.

When Goldman makes the public pronouncement that oil will be 200 by next summer, price seems
to go in their direction. When they say it has overheated and they call a top, like magic,
prices descend. The entire price excursion in 2008, from 50, to 147 and back to 50, happened
while demand was substantially the same. Sure demand was increasing, an yes, OPEC was
doing as instructed, making supply slightly more than demand. But not to this extent. Consumers
pay the price on the way up, unsophisticated investors pay on the way down.

I take no solace in the fact that my 401K benefits from Goldman's manipulation of oil markets,
anymore than I appreciate their manipulation of the mortgage markets. Enron was doing the exact
same thing with the electricity market in California when it hit 1000/MW. We all know what
happened to Enron.

[kublikhan]

What I'd like to know is why do you keep creating new accounts and changing your name peeker01? I know who you are, but why not just use your old name(s)? Do you keep getting banned for trolling? If so, are you just bored or something?

[peeker01]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'W')hat I'd like to know is why do you keep creating new accounts and changing your name peeker01? I know who you are, but why not just use your old name(s)? Do you keep getting banned for trolling? If so, are you just bored or something?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'H')ow about letting your postings
stand on their merits, and drop the name calling.

[peeker01]

First of all, I am not a skeptic. My postings reveal that. I prep, I buy gold, I investigate solar
energy, I have test-driven hybrid cars. When I hear BS, I speak my mind.

I have strong feelings about commodities trading being used against the greater good of society.
I have no doubt we will see it's strict regulation in the near future.

I have stuck no fingers in anyone's eye, but I have observed that the resident experts here are short
on facts, long on rhetoric and very long on name calling.

Thanks for not calling me shorty.

[AgentR11]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'I') have strong feelings about commodities trading being used against the greater good of society.
I have no doubt we will see it's strict regulation in the near future.

[davep]

IIRC, there was some oil trader in London who got very drunk one weekend and placed a shedload of options (or plain futures) positions that actually had a marked effect on the oil price. I don't remember the details, but he ended up in rehab.

Personally, I don't see how futures options can affect delivery price, but futures themselves can.

[SeaGypsy]

Give the man a medal and a small slave nation in Africa.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'G')ive the man a medal and a small slave nation in Africa.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'T')hat's the million dollar question, huh Pop's. I'll do you one better! How did it go down
to the 70 year average in Dec 2008, with only a marginal decrease in demand?