[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'T')hat's the million dollar question, huh Pop's. I'll do you one better! How did it go down
to the 70 year average in Dec 2008, with only a marginal decrease in demand?

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peeker01', 'T')hat's the million dollar question, huh Pop's. I'll do you one better! How did it go down
to the 70 year average in Dec 2008, with only a marginal decrease in demand?

[kildred590]

It is possible for speculation to drive up the price of a commodity where there is a limited number of suppliers and traders :
For instance, this has occured with coffee (85% of the world market is controlled by Nestle) and cacao beans (controlled by Cadbury, Hershey and Nestle).
A speculator can buy a few shipments and cause a price to "spike".

This really is what the OPEC cartel did in the late 1970s. They formed a bloc controlling a large part of the supply and tightened supply causing a "spike".

There are currently so many suppliers and traders in oil it would be difficult to create a spike.
There is no evidence of speculation as the price of oil has mirrored the expected future demand pretty closely since the mid-1990s.

[Sys1]

There is no such thing as speculation regarding oil since driving up prices kill the economy... And oil price! Oil is not subjected to speculation like say real estate. Oil is the blood of economy.
Oil barrel speculation part is close to 0% imho. It's geology which drove oil up since 2000, not anything else. Prices are fair, and actually, even if we have passed the peak, oil remains pretty cheap... But not enough to prevent a global economic crash.
This debate around speculation % of oil is plain nonsense, it should be left to those still stuck in deny.

[Sys1]

There is no such thing as speculation regarding oil since driving up prices kill the economy... And oil price! Oil is not subjected to speculation like say real estate. Oil is the blood of economy.
Oil barrel speculation part is close to 0% imho. It's geology which drove oil up since 2000, not anything else. Prices are fair, and actually, even if we have passed the peak, oil remains pretty cheap... But not enough to prevent a global economic crash.
This debate around speculation % of oil is plain nonsense, it should be left to those still stuck in deny.

[copious.abundance]

If there is any doubt that speculation can and does drive up the price of oil, today's price action should put to rest any of those doubts.

- The dollar rose by about 1.5%, but oil fell a whopping 6%. So you can't blame all of oil's fall just on a rising dollar.
- Even the stock markets fell only 4-5%.
- The only thing I know of which fell more than oil was silver.

You can't tell me oil demand suddenly fell by 6% today, nor did supply rise by 6% today.

This guy here did an interesting job explaining that today's market action (and presumably the last few days as well) was nothing more than a hedge fund deleveraging event. That's who's driving up the price of oil, not "peak oil."

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'I')f there is any doubt that speculation can and does drive up the price of oil, today's price action should put to rest any of those doubts.

- The dollar rose by about 1.5%, but oil fell a whopping 6%. So you can't blame all of oil's fall just on a rising dollar.
- Even the stock markets fell only 4-5%.
- The only thing I know of which fell more than oil was silver.

You can't tell me oil demand suddenly fell by 6% today, nor did supply rise by 6% today.

This guy here did an interesting job explaining that today's market action (and presumably the last few days as well) was nothing more than a hedge fund deleveraging event. That's who's driving up the price of oil, not "peak oil."