[kiwichick]

radon; the us going down the tubes is always important as it is still nominally the largest economy on our insignificant planet

[radon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kiwichick', 'r')adon; the us going down the tubes is always important as it is still nominally the largest economy on our insignificant planet

[Pops]

Convince us ... that a rumor KSA was going to shut in production would not raise spot prices.

[Pops]

I rearranged and reworded, added and subtracted - trying to make these irrefutable "facts".
Maybe the next list is "10 Way PO will Affect You"
I changed the price effects to simple inarguable relationships

10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum production followed by long term decline.
2. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale.
2. Discovery of new oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still (?)
3. Easily extracted (inexpensive) oil will be depleted faster than difficult and expensive oil.
4. As oil exporting nations deplete reserves and consume more oil internally, their exports fall.
5. Increasing oil prices can increase reserves by making once unprofitable oil profitable
6. Increasing oil prices decrease demand by reducing the amount consumers can purchase
7. Increasing oil prices reduce discretionary income available for other uses depressing the economy. (?)
8. Scaling up substitutes will take considerable time, after the need is recognized.
9. Oil production data is proprietary making long range planning by governments difficult.
10.The amount of energy used to produce oil steadily increases reducing energy available for useful economic work.

Whadda ya think?

[Fishman]

Pop, stick with the 10 basic FACTS first then branch. Pstarr , your points are excellent, and I agree with most of them, but some express opinion. This brings on the debate. Lets stick with 10 basic facts first. The effects part should stem from the 10 facts. The debate about basic semantics of Pops top 10 should be tossed, even #1 could be batted around like a tennis ball if allowed.
#10 is great
#9 will be debated
#8 is highly probable but doesn't sit as a fact.
#7 .. decreases gross domestic output.

[DomusAlbion]

I like this concise list. Tools such as this make it easier to present the problem to the uninitiated.

I've got a problem with the first item.

"1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum production followed by long term decline."

It seems a little too vague. I know it's difficult to estimate the length of the terminal decline of production but "long term"? What does that mean to an average reader? 10 years? 20? 100?
Some would argue that it could be short term. So it might be good to nail this particular piece of jello to the tree with some kind of hard numbers, such as "at 7% decline production will be at half the current rate in 10 years"

Also it might be nice to footnote each point to reference some data to back up the statements or give pointers to further reading.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', '&')quot;1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum production followed by long term decline."

It seems a little too vague.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', '#')9 will be debated

[Pops]

We've also neglected Mr. Jevons...
Anyone pay attention to him any more?

An interesting article...

[DomusAlbion]

Pops wrote:

"Maybe just:
1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum production followed by general decline."

That's better, imho. I like "Terminal decline" -- sounds scary, which is what's needed sometimes.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '9'). Oil production data is proprietary making long range planning by governments difficult.
10.The amount of energy used to produce oil steadily increases reducing energy available for useful economic work

[meemoe_uk]

1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum production followed by long term decline.
Ok
2. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale.
ok
2. Discovery of new oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still (?)
No, discovery is too ambiguous to be sure of the numbers. 1st, Most middle east supergiants discovered before 1970, the ones that make up the peak of discovery in doomer charts, would have run dry long ago if it wasn't for later much more oil being 'discovered' in those same reserviors. 2nd taking just a modest outlook of oilfinders recent discovery list suggests that oil discovery is setting new records right now, in this new golden age of oil discovery that we're living in, that all doomers ignore because it's inconvienient to their ideals.
And don't forget, if you chuck in tar-sands and shale, it sends the reserves waaaay off the top of the chart.

3. Easily extracted (inexpensive) oil will be depleted faster than difficult and expensive oil.
Ok
4. As oil exporting nations deplete reserves and consume more oil internally, their exports fall.
Ok. But we're still waiting for the US to significantly deplete it's oil reserves. The US is today pulling just below 1970\1 record amounts of crude.
5. Increasing oil prices can increase reserves by making once unprofitable oil profitable
Ok.
6. Increasing oil prices decrease demand by reducing the amount consumers can purchase
Ok
7. Increasing oil prices reduce discretionary income available for other uses depressing the economy.
No necessarily. It just means you stop working for some frivilous consumer\media\luxury company, and get a job with an energy company. So it's just the useless economy that takes a hit, no bad thing!

8. Scaling up substitutes will take considerable time, after the need is recognized.
Not significantly. Not on the time-scale of loss of energy due to PO. 5 years max if tommorrow the leaders got on TV and told everyone they were at war against PO, and we have to drop everything to go out and set up alternatve energy supplies. Alternate energy is currently massively suppressed by the oil cartel.

9. Oil production data is proprietary making long range planning by governments difficult.
No

10.The amount of energy used to produce oil steadily increases reducing energy available for useful economic work.
Yes, but the ERORI is so very high for oil, that ERORI concerns don't become significant till at least next century. Or alternatively when the real costs of obtaining a barrel of oil are around $10000 in todays money. Your own PeakOil leader Matt Simmons always used to propound this, and he was right.
For all intents and purposes, ERORI isn't a concern today. It's the MROMI ( money returned on money invested ). Money is spose to represent potential energy, but it's been heavily defiled from this ideal. To think that the direct link between money and energy still holds true, means you don't understand monetary history or current affairs. Of course, peakers love to insist this link is perfectly intact wrt ascribing the huge world debt due to supposed perilously low oil ERORI.

[meemoe_uk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '9'). Oil production data is proprietary making long range planning by governments difficult.
10.The amount of energy used to produce oil steadily increases reducing energy available for useful economic work

[Pops]

[

10 Basic Facts of Peak Oil
1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum production followed by terminal decline.
2. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale.
2. Discovery of new oil fields peaked 40 years ago and very large fields earlier still.
3. Easily extracted (inexpensive) oil will be depleted faster than difficult and expensive oil.
4. As oil exporting nations deplete reserves and consume more oil internally, their exports fall.
5. Increasing oil prices can increase reserves by making once unprofitable oil profitable
6. Increasing oil prices decrease demand by reducing the amount consumers can purchase
7. Increasing oil prices reduce discretionary income available for other uses depressing the economy.
8. Scaling up substitutes will take considerable time, after the need is recognized.
9. Significant amounts of national oil company data are unavailable, obscuring the true situation.
10. Increasing energy expended in finding and developing, and often in extracting and refining oil reduces the net energy produced.

Suggestions on #9?

Others?

[Pops]

Don't get all bent, P, nothing is final.

I understand what you are saying but by the same token, saying there is no element of speculation in oil prices, that price is completely dependent on supply and demand is far from a fact. The spot market twitches and jumps at every rumor exactly like every other commodity, bond, equity, currency and pretending it's all peak oil is counterproductive.

Anyone else want to chime in on speculation or any other point?

[Fishman]

Pop, # 9 looks better.
#6 ... decreases the demand for other products...


Pstarr, I disagree. Your imput here was most useful. Clarity doesn't mean Pops has to include your points (nor certainly mine). Clarity demands that your points be considered and well argued, which you did.

Personally, I think the economic component is a bit skewed in these 10. These are very important (and to me the most important) but other facts will provide a broader perspective

[DomusAlbion]

I agree with pstarr on his last post. His statement is much clearer and expresses the concept of the export land model which is an important factor in the decline of exports to consumer nations.

Otherwise the list is shaping up nicely.

[kublikhan]

Nice list. If would be nice if each rule was hyperlinked to a thread or article that explains the rule in more detail, and/or provides the facts you mentioned earlier.

There are also a few Peak Oil Fallacies that annoy me. I am not sure if we need a separate "top 10 peak oil fallacies". Or maybe append the fallacies to it's closest rule?

Top 10 Peak oil fallacies:
1. Peak oil is the point we "run out of oil".
2. Oil reserves refill themselves(abiotic oil).
3. Every few years we have a new "peak" in oil, then everything goes back to normal.
4. Peak oil is caused by OPEC.
5. Peak oil is caused by speculators.
6. Peak oil is caused by greedy oil companies.
7. There are hundreds of years of cheap and abundant oil left.
8. When peak oil happens driving less will solve the problem.
9. New oil discoveries more than offset existing oil usage.

Or if we wanted to just append them to existing rules, perhaps something like:

Top 10 peak oil facts:
1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum production followed by long term decline. It is not the point we "run out of oil".
2. Oil is a finite resource on a human time scale. More is not being created.
etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')he wealth part is very significant. It is the central thesis of Dallas geologist Jeffrey Brown's "Export Land Model"

[Pops]

Hey everyone, take a look at this paper and tell me what you think, it's new to me...

Executive summary:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n brief, the oil pricing system witnessed major transformations in the last 50 years or so which saw the oil market shift from the administered oil pricing system first governed by multinational oil companies and then governed by OPEC to a market related system in which oil was initially priced off the spot market until the futures market assumed a greater role in price discovery.

[dolanbaker]

I would slightly amend point one, to reflect the availability of oil to individual consumers.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')op 10 peak oil facts:
1. "Peak Oil" is the point of maximum availability per consumer followed by long term decline.