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PeakOil is You

THE Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (ARAMCO) pt 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 05:07:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', 'I')t could be also straightforward , they did release more oil than their quota , there is no point cheesing off their friends and it might be a sweet gesture to Iran too
production increase would then happen in batches
a couple of months on , a couple of months off


At 8 million barrels a day now, they've cut back to their minimum historical benchmark since 1990:

Image

This is a pretty big cut here.. 9.12% of their total production. The oil minister says April will be about the same. With everything going on in the middle east, seems like an odd time to cut production. Maybe Ghawar is tapping out?

Anyhow this news certainly won't help rising oil / gas prices. So what are we looking at by summer, $5 gas, $5.50?
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Pretorian » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 06:18:24

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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby dsula » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 07:21:04

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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby americandream » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 07:42:35

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Well, Haiti was in your backyard for decades. Now you get to have them in your lounge.

http://www.socialismtoday.org/82/haiti.html
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Fishman » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 07:56:54

I smell smoke. And my canary is acting very unusual. Anyone else?
Obama, the FUBAR presidency gets scraped off the boot
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby sparky » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 08:10:05

.
My canary is alive but it smell funny 8)
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 09:54:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ull supplies at Cushing no longer matter to GLOBAL markets as they used to. There is a reason why we now see the spread between Brent and WTI. Screaming and thumping the table about full inventory at Cushing is nothing more than a misunderstanding of the nature of the current oil trading environment.


The US is still almost at a tie with China in terms of largest consumer. If you look at the current spread between Brent and WTI it started in January of this year. I don't think it is coincidental that corresponds to the start of the Egypt riots which was followed of course by similar events in Yemen and Libya. There are all sorts of other issues that come into play with regards to the spread including the unusually large number of refineries undergoing maintanence (as Pup pointed out), the fact that Brent is becoming scarcer in comparison to WTI (Brent represents about 2% of global production but is the referential unit for >60% of all oil transactions) and possibly the increasing contango in the US.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Pops » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 11:10:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'F')ull supplies at Cushing no longer matter to GLOBAL markets as they used to. There is a reason why we now see the spread between Brent and WTI. Screaming and thumping the table about full inventory at Cushing is nothing more than a misunderstanding of the nature of the current oil trading environment.

I'm pretty sure the main reason for the spread is the tar sands and Bakken are both landlocked except for expensive truck and rail transport. Once the construction of pipelines to the coasts are complete (next year sometime I think) expect the spread to disappear - actually, expect the discounted WTI to rise to the world market price and our little vacation to be over.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Pretorian » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 16:34:24

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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Puchica » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 17:12:25

Goodbye. I won't be a part of a community that talks about people in such a vicious way.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby americandream » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 17:23:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Puchica', 'G')oodbye. I won't be a part of a community that talks about people in such a vicious way.

Sorry to see you go but divide and rule capitalism breeds ignorance. Ignorance is essential to the art of selling these Ad hom deletedthe junk they don't need. So in essence, they are hardly to blame for being bred stupid. And stupidity comes in many forms on this planet. So you might want to reconsider.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 18:04:42

Expect to see further increases in support for "nationalist" parties in many countries as well. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13107620
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') nationalist party has taken nearly a fifth of votes in Finland's general election, the electoral commission says.

Closely followed by closed borders.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby rangerone314 » Mon 18 Apr 2011, 18:10:13

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An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 19 Apr 2011, 10:51:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Puchica', 'G')oodbye. I won't be a part of a community that talks about people in such a vicious way.

It's interesting that you would bail on this site simply because of somebody else's comment. Even if you are here only to listen you must know that not everybody here thinks or feels about other people in that way. In the end people who can't say what they want to say without resorting to degrading language or cursing are not eloquent, rather they betray the paucity of intellectual mastery that their reactionary and inflammatory screeds rely on. To wit, are you leaving because you think people here have nothing to say? Please take another look before you make such a decision, you will be rewarded.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 19 Apr 2011, 11:20:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')This is a pretty big cut here.. 9.12% of their total production. The oil minister says April will be about the same. With everything going on in the middle east, seems like an odd time to cut production.


Not really. The Saudis are cutting production precisely BECAUSE of what is going on in the middle east.

The Saudis are long tme allies of the US, but they are not pro-democracy in the Middle East. The Saudi's opposed Obama's booting out Mubarak and they oppose Obama's efforts to boot out the dictator in Yemen and the Arab League has recently come out in opposition to US bombing in Libya.

The Saudis are cutting production BECAUSE of what is happening in the ME. The Saudis are intentionally going to drive oil prices higher to put pressure on the west.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 19 Apr 2011, 13:49:36

Or it is simply that they can't find anyone to buy their oil at the current price

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')inisters from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries insisted Monday that the global market is well-supplied with crude oil, and blamed political and market factors for the steep runup in crude prices this year.

Saudi Arabia confirmed it has cut output by more than 800,000 barrels a day since mid-March, after it had boosted output by some 300,000 barrels daily to help settle markets after civil war broke out in Libya.

Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi cited weak demand for the cut in output, but said the kingdom would be prepared to open the spigots again if demand strengthens ahead of the summer driving season in Europe and North America when gasoline consumption typically peaks.

While lower Saudi production might be expected to trigger an increase in prices, traders apparently took the move as yet another signal that demand for oil is weakening. News of another interest rate hike in China and Standard & Poor’s warning on the intractable nature of the U.S. deficit combined to drive down commodity prices across the board, including crude oil.


and

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut the Saudis only cut back production after being unable to find customers for their additional output, said Greg Priddy, analyst with Eurasia Group, a Washington-based political risk consultancy.

“They don’t really have a lot of takers right now,” Mr. Priddy said. “As demand ramps up over the summer, they probably will. They’re being a bit cautious but I don’t think it’s the case that they are trying to push prices up from $120.”


http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article1990322.html
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Tue 19 Apr 2011, 15:10:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')heir current production is failing:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]in the year 2000, the average output from a Saudi Arabian oilwell was 5,125 bbl/day. In 2009, the average was down to 2,817 bbl//day.


That's a 45% drop in avg oil production per well in just 10 years. This chart goes to 2005, so extrapolate a further decrease down to 2,800 bbl/day.

Image

16,000 bbl/day in 1981 down to 2,800 bbl/day in 2009 represents an 82.5% decrease in avg oil production per well. 8O Peak oil, baby.
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 19 Apr 2011, 15:12:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'i')s it because the Great and Mighty Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Praise Allah!) is running out of petroleum....their current production is failing:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he data suggests that over time, the output per well will continue to decline and at some point will be so low as to be uneconomical. As another point of interest, in the year 2000, the average output from a Saudi Arabian oilwell was 5,125 bbl/day. In 2009, the average was down to 2,817 bbl//day.
Link


Pstarr and Daniel Plainview are right.

Its very naive to take the Saudis seriously when they claim they are cutting production because the oil market is "oversupplied"
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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby Cog » Tue 19 Apr 2011, 15:14:40

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Re: Saudi Arabia cuts output, says market oversupplied

Unread postby the48thronin » Tue 19 Apr 2011, 15:24:50

Well cog, there is the ignore factor... untill someone thinks they need to quote the racist and castigate them but get them past other peoples ignore factor also... HMMM maybe you do not understand how to deal with problems and need an admin or mod for all your problems... do you by any chance think the government can solve all your problems also?
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