[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')700 millions barrels is inconsequential, enough for 8 days refiner consumption.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')D, I have no idea if all the money flowing in and out of the markets make a tenth of a percent difference or 10% or 50%. I'm sure it has some since I've never heard a pat argument made that it has none.

Certainly, the rise since the late '90s is mostly about the fundamentals, I just hate to see absolutes thrown around without a good argument to back them up because either way it surely messes up someones takeaway from PO.com

[mos6507]

If anyone were to actually watch the 60-minutes piece you'd see that, just as with the credit crisis, a combination of moneyed interest looking for a new trick and lax regulations is what left the door wide open for speculators to warp prices where it wasn't the case maybe 10 years ago. So this is not really that mysterious. The vulnerability is well known, which is why laws have tried (and so far failed) to completely end it. What this does is, like the credit crisis, muddy the waters in peak oil analysis.

Money always seeks to make more money, and one trend that I think has been clear that money is looking for safe-havens. Traditional investing in brick and mortar is faltering because the US is on the downswing. So we have the housing bubble ponzi scheme, and with people concerned about the dollar, into precious metals (which may have a major correction), and now oil and other commodities (farmland?). It's really a sort of panic on the part of investors that they have to find some new loophole to exploit, and it's very faddish where everybody piles onto the next-big-thing and distorts the market.

There are now more rich people than ever in the US, and they act like lemmings. It's a powerful force with damaging consequences when they all jump at the same time.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou can 'suggest' all you want rocky. But you are still a troll. A good-natured, educated, retired oil-industry troll. I stopped respecting your 'restraint' years ago. SA councils restraint also.

[thuja]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'C')an we all agree that long term the trend for oil prices has been up? And that speculation affects the short term oscilations but that other factors are affecting the long term bullish trend? And then can we agree that peak oil is one of the main causative factors in that long term (decade long) bullish trend?

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou have always argued against peak oil, and your condescending attitude to be insulting.

As for 2008, you can find all sorts of correlates that you might try to blame $147 petroleum on. Which one this time? Don't bother blaming speculators because we have already discounted that shibbolet

[diemos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', 'T')he last price climb was not due to shortages...there were none and there are no shortages now.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I')f anyone were to actually watch the 60-minutes piece you'd see that, just as with the credit crisis, a combination of moneyed interest looking for a new trick and lax regulations is what left the door wide open for speculators to warp prices where it wasn't the case maybe 10 years ago. So this is not really that mysterious. The vulnerability is well known, which is why laws have tried (and so far failed) to completely end it. What this does is, like the credit crisis, muddy the waters in peak oil analysis.

Money always seeks to make more money, and one trend that I think has been clear that money is looking for safe-havens. Traditional investing in brick and mortar is faltering because the US is on the downswing. So we have the housing bubble ponzi scheme, and with people concerned about the dollar, into precious metals (which may have a major correction), and now oil and other commodities (farmland?). It's really a sort of panic on the part of investors that they have to find some new loophole to exploit, and it's very faddish where everybody piles onto the next-big-thing and distorts the market.

There are now more rich people than ever in the US, and they act like lemmings. It's a powerful force with damaging consequences when they all jump at the same time.

[sparky]

.
There is different species of speculators ,

the bots , buying and selling madly in picoseconds on any movement ,
no big influence there , they only make trading more unstable
they are the grass

the traders , usually closing their position everyday ,
they don't influence the market so much as they are fearful of losing their bosses bonuses
they are the coyotes

the mass of speculators , often confusing trading with horse racing ,
for one winner , hundred get caught sooner or latter
they are the cattle

the big trading houses who take physical positions for months in advance and have the real means to swing the market
They are the lions

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou have cause and effect reversed. As long as the free market is allowed to work there will never be shortages because the price will change to align demand with available supply.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', ' ')now the Saudis are saying they will not increase production further simply because the market is well-supplied. Something they have been saying for the past year.

[Lore]

The Saudis were looking for any excuse not to fulfill their role.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Saudis were looking for any excuse not to fulfill their role.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Saudis were looking for any excuse not to fulfill their role.

[AirlinePilot]

I think its problematic right now to claim one thing or another concerning oil price and the reason for the spikes and troughs we are seeing. Its probably a little bit of everything at the moment. What i think is more important to be watching is what transpires with global net exports. This is where we are currently seeing the pressure and its been this way now for several years. While we work out what happens with global production and the current plateau, exports are where you MAY see things happen first. Right now there are too many political pie plates spinning and that is likely why we are seeing the latest spike. It may or may not settle down.

After reading Webhubbles "Oil Conundrum" I think at this point, Im more concerned and paying attention to what has happened over the last several years in RELATION to price. The bottom line here is that its pretty much a fact, that with some very significant rises in crude prices, we dont see the expected increase in production. In fact we seem to be clinging to a very small range and it remains to be seen if:

A: Real spare capacity exists ( I think some does, but not the large IEA/EIA est.)

B: Whether or not global production can grow significantly above our current range.

The other Elephant in the room for me is the fact that in the face of these price increases global net exports are DECLINING. This may in fact be more important than what happens with production as this saga unfolds. At some point the realization that as a producer it may be required that you curtail exports due to either political reasons or internal demand or a combination of both will become a serious issue in relation to available global supply.

[kildred590]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Saudi's statement is just an excuse for them to cut production. The Saudi production cut is more a political move then a market-driven move.

The real reason the Saudi's are cutting production because they are very angry at the west right now. The Saudis strongly supported Mubarak, but Obama forced their ally Mubarak out in Egypt and Obama is now forcing their ally out in Yemen. The Saudis have been very clear that they think the withdrawal of support for Mubarak by the US was a mistake. The Saudis actually sent their own troops into Bahrain to repress the "pro-democracy" movement there. The Saudis are clearly no friends to the "pro-democracy" movements in Egypt, Yemen, Tunesia, Yemen and other Arab countries.

Which brings us to Libya----The Saudis are also not thrilled about the ongoing US, France and Britain bombing attacks on Libya. The Arab League has been calling for the bombing attacks on Libya to stop since the west has now gone far beyond setting up the "no-fly zone" that the Arab League originally agreed to. The Saudi's also probably aren't too thrilled that there are al Qaida elements both in the leadership and in the fighting forces of the "rebels."

So the Saudis decide to act on their own and play their own hand. BY cutting production the Saudis can simultaneously hurt the western powers and boost their own financial strength and power.

[bratticus]

Is the $600 billion in QE2 money running out? Will QE2 end before June 30 due to a lack of permission to create more than $600 billion in cash?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Charlie Parker: Forty days until the easy money runs out
by Charlie Parker on Apr 20, 2011

... The QE2 process which began in November 2010 may have only sent the S&P 500 up 5.9% and the FTSE 100 up 2% but look at what it has enabled the market to overcome; a major natural disaster in the world's third-largest economy (with a bit of help from the Bank of Japan), a significant oil shock with major conflict in the Middle East, a surge in inflation across the world and in particular in emerging markets, a bail-out in Portugal and the prospect of major European debt restructurings creeping closer. Oh yes, and the fact Standard & Poor's thinks the world's largest economy has a one in three chance of losing its AAA-rating within the next two years.

... Economic consultancy GaveKal estimates that with some $500 billion of its possible $600 billion of quantitative easing already deployed the Federal Reserve has somewhere between 20 and 40 market days left which it can buoy with liquidity interventions.

[mos6507]

Man, this topic is drifting.