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The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Fri 04 Mar 2011, 11:22:46

What I find interesting about this game is how it reflects each players sense of optimism, pessimism, insight, or "gut-feeling". Some players might believe the market will remain stable while others expect price volatility due to world events whether it's political or natural.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby SteinarN » Fri 04 Mar 2011, 16:54:14

WTI at 104.87 right now. Dont know if that will be the close for today. Seems like Dudes call for 105 a few posts ago was pretty much spot on.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby eXpat » Fri 04 Mar 2011, 17:19:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SteinarN', 'W')TI at 104.87 right now. Dont know if that will be the close for today. Seems like Dudes call for 105 a few posts ago was pretty much spot on.

high $104.94 today.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby sparky » Sat 05 Mar 2011, 03:48:20

.
Pretty much everybody was seeing a steady climb through the year ,
now we have a black swan
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Revi » Sat 05 Mar 2011, 17:36:27

I don't think it will stay at 105 right now. The middle east has got the oil market all worked up. If it calms down I think it will sink back under a hundred again. The real price squeeze isn't supposed to happen until next year.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 09 Mar 2011, 19:51:33

The EIA reported a new high price for WTI as of March 7th. The closing price was the same. We have a new leader and some significant changes in the standings:

Image
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby jdmartin » Thu 10 Mar 2011, 23:30:32

Ok! I'm on the climb :-D Don't know if I should be glad about that or not, now that I think about it :(
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Revi » Fri 11 Mar 2011, 13:53:54

I am still stuck around 31, which is where I like it. I think there is a chance that the oil price might hit around $157, with all the problems in the ME. I'm still not quite confident yet to bet any maple syrup, but maybe after sugar season I might entertain a little wager. We don't have any syrup yet, and I don't believe on betting on what I don't have, so when April comes I'll talk.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 23 Mar 2011, 18:55:58

The way the drought is going on around here, I may not get any pecans this year so I don't think I should make any wagers either.

Here's the latest scorecard:

Image

TheDude took the #1 spot last week too, btw.

I'm catching up with pup!, and I passed a few cornies on the way! :P
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Wed 23 Mar 2011, 23:06:42

I am quite annoyed that the Middle East decided to melt down during the course of this game.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby SteinarN » Thu 24 Mar 2011, 08:06:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'I') am quite annoyed that the Middle East decided to melt down during the course of this game.


Not at all, slightly more unrest before it calms down a bit should do it :-D
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby sparky » Sat 26 Mar 2011, 18:47:21

.
@ cog , we are still doing better than most pundits so smile
and it's still the 1st quarter of the year
I had a 150$ high just for this kind of eventuality ,maybe a bit on a limb
but the 120$ closing is definitely on track

I think the low is pretty much it for the year
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby jdmartin » Wed 06 Apr 2011, 10:17:54

Hey PO, you out there? I'm curious to see how the standings have changed with oil up to 108...
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Wed 06 Apr 2011, 11:48:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'I') am quite annoyed that the Middle East decided to melt down during the course of this game.


This is good for GE right? Melt down for Oil, I guess the only thing left is coal and solar :lol:
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Midessa » Thu 07 Apr 2011, 13:37:05

$110. Wheeeee!
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby jdmartin » Thu 07 Apr 2011, 16:44:55

OK, not to steal PeakOiler's thunder - indeed, imitation is the most sincere form of flattery :wink: - I copied PO's format and put together the latest standings as of April 7, 2011 to hopefully help PO out and give 'em a break once in a while but still keep the thread going - PO, if this completely pisses you off just let me know and I won't do it anymore. But you did make a nice chart :)

Like cream, the doomers are rising to the top and the cornucopians are sinking fast.

Image
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby pup55 » Thu 07 Apr 2011, 17:40:42

I the laid back judge say, "go for it".
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 07 Apr 2011, 18:14:23

I don't consider myself a doomer, more a realist! ;)
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 07 Apr 2011, 19:12:18

jdmartin, I was going to post a scorecard last night, but I was having trouble uploading the file to photobucket. No, posting your chart did not piss me off, lol. And thanks for the help! My question is, how did you get price data for the 6th and 7th when the EIA's release only reported up to Tuesday, the 5th. ?

Here's my scorecard up to April 5th, according to the spreadsheet I downloaded from the EIA:

Image
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: The 2011 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 07 Apr 2011, 19:34:21

Finally, I am #1. All hail king kublikhan. And despair, for I am a ruthless leader.
The oil barrel is half-full.
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