by Loki » Wed 30 Mar 2011, 15:45:09
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')As for the prospect of famine in the US by 2030 or 2050, as I said before, I find this highly improbable. Not out of the realm of possibility, I suppose, but not worth worrying about.
Three problems with this view: 1) peak oil will reduce our ability to work ag on a massive scale, including fertilizer inputs, processing and transportation of food to where it's actually consumed, 2) we are about to hit really big problems with water in the Midwest from aquifer depletion and other areas from poor allocation of existing water resources (read: watering lawns and sidewalks) and, 3) climate change has the potential to be a real game changer in the food production realm. We've already seen the results that mass heat, drought and rain can have on crop production in Australia, China, Russia and in the US. If climate continues to get more extreme, coupled with 1 and 2 above, we'll see some famine. Bet your belly fat on it.
Peak oil is not going to leave tractors sitting idle in the field. It just ain't. Of the three problems you outline, peak oil is by far the least of them, and by itself will not lead to famine in the US. Tractor fuel is a minor expense on the farm I work on, though fuel for distribution is more significant and greatly increased fuel prices would put a pinch on us.
Aquifer depletion is serious and it will limit long-term agricultural production in parts of the US, primarily grains for export. But it won't lead to mass famine in the US, though it will make some food more expensive, mostly meat and dairy. I agree with Pretorian that we will stop exporting grains eventually. I think we should do it right now, as a matter of fact. It's not our responsibility to "feed the world."
Climate change is by far the most serious threat to our long-term agricultural prospects. Long term, it may very well result in mass worldwide famine, including in the US.
But the point of this thread was to guess what things will be like in 20-40 years, not by the end of this century or beyond. I don't think climate change, even in conjunction with other problems, will result in mass famine in the US in 20 years. 40 years is also unlikely, but that's my Magic 8 Ball can't see that far into the future.
Peak oilers like to tell themselves scary stories about famines and the like IN OUR LIFETIME, like 5 years from now, 20 tops. Mos, THAT is what I'm calling bullshit on. Sorry if it hurts anyone's feelings that we won't see piles of bodies anytime soon.
I think people would be better off worrying less about mega-hyper-doom and instead figure out how they're going to deal with poverty, and whether they prefer rural peasantry or urban ghettos (to paraphrase a poster on the Oil Drum).
OK, back to growing some food to help avert this upcoming famine
A garden will make your rations go further.
