[ColossalContrarian]

If you want to know what not to pick, follow my picks over that last three years or so, I can't even get in the top 20!!!

[sparky]

.
I'm about the same , no worries it's fun and it keep us our feet on the ground

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
I'm about the same , no worries it's fun and it keep us our feet on the ground

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'T')oo late to enter? Id go for a high of 101. A low of 60 and a finishing of around 75.

On the low side but I would be guessing on a slow down on Q3 and Q4 and draining econmic confidence and a lot of volatility as bullish long positions on oil and other comodities get hurt.

[PeakOiler]

Since WTI set a new low in the last couple of days, there was a change in the rankings:



Daniel Plainview has held the #1 spot 87%, Cog 6.5%, and OilFinder2 6.5% of the days reported by the EIA so far this year.

[pup55]

[quote]pup55 is the official laid back judge [/quoted}

I am much too laid back to worry about the 1/12th of the love and respect.

In the previous three years of the PO.com Oil price challenge, the late joiners have not tended to do much better than anyone else....

[Revi]

I think we should switch from the price of WTI to Brent. Brent is taking off. It's something like $104 now. When will our humble brand of crude catch up? And why is WTI at such a discount when it used to be the premium stuff? Is it the syncrude from Canada diluting it? Whatever it is we're much more likely to see $157 in Brent. That's why I want to change the brand. Just kidding. I'll stick with my guesstimations. I have a better chance this year than last.

[PeakOiler]

With the recent spike in oil prices, the EIA will report a new high price for WTI in the last week, and a new high close. I'll post a new scorecard in a day or so.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think we should switch from the price of WTI to Brent. Brent is taking off. It's something like $104 now. When will our humble brand of crude catch up? And why is WTI at such a discount when it used to be the premium stuff? Is it the syncrude from Canada diluting it? Whatever it is we're much more likely to see $157 in Brent. That's why I want to change the brand. Just kidding. I'll stick with my guesstimations. I have a better chance this year than last.

[pup55]

The original reason for using WTI is that the EIA prints out the daily prices in Excel form on their website....and so making it easier for Peakoiler, and I, when I feel like it, to do the standings....

Besides, at the end of the day, as soon as everybody recalibrates their guesses, it probably would not make too much difference, the winner of the love and respect would be unlikely to be bad predicting the brent price if they were good at predicting the WTI price....

I still think the more interesting contest would be to predict the gold-denominated oil price. We even tried to do something like that in 2008 by having a "euro dominated" oil price prediction....but there were only a couple of participants...

Simple is good.

[jdmartin]

Yeah..besides, I'm about to make a run at first place. If we can get some good rioting going in Yemen, I'll be on my way

[sparky]

.
We could have a mention for the best on Brent yardstick
100% respect for that one

but the discrepancy should somewhat abate ,
VLCC oil can go anywhere and will follows the differential ,
it's only piped oil which is trapped in a market ,
the alternative is rail , which start to be interesting between the central states and California
the Canadians could explore the great lakes as an outlet
the abundance of natural gas is also a factor

[PeakOiler]

Here's the latest:



I think WTI was even higher on the 24th, but we'll have to wait another week to see what the EIA reports.

[SteinarN]

This is looking better for me. I'm up from 12th to 7th place on the last scorecard. If we only could have a bit more rioting in a few Opec countries before it calms down a bit.....

[Revi]

Careful what you wish for Steinar! There are rumors that Saudi may have a Facebook revolution starting on March 20th.

I am going to stick with my $157 and see what happens.

The way things are going, I may be moving up in the ranks soon enough.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'C')areful what you wish for Steinar! There are rumors that Saudi may have a Facebook revolution starting on March 20th.

I am going to stick with my $157 and see what happens.

The way things are going, I may be moving up in the ranks soon enough.

[PeakOiler]

As of March 1st, the EIA data showed that Cog, Daniel Plainview, TheDude, held the top three spots in this game.

Daniel Plainview has held 1st place 76.25%, Cog 18.75%, and OilFinder2 5% of the time so far this year.

Since there was apparently another high price set in the last week, I will wait another week before posting a new scorecard. TheDude may take 1st...

There's more unrest and volatility yet to unfold this year...

[TheDude]

Of course EIA is offline at the very moment I want to fiddle with #s. Plugging in $105 for High/Close I have "no name" at #1 and my ownself at #2. The serious dislocation between WTI and everything else means we really should find a better benchmark. Or hand out honorary prizes. Or use a median at the close. Or?

For anyone who wants to play along: My spreadsheet: download here. Will whip up a graph later. Or here's the #s, which I extracted with OCR software:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'no name 114 87 106
TheDude 110 82 98
SteinarN 112 79 102
kublikhan 110 90 110
Carlhole 110 80 98
Midessa 112 82 112
pup55 106.18 77.66 94.04
PeakOiler 115.49 79.65 110.11
SeaGypsy 112 77.7 97
Cog 95 80 95
Daniel Plainview 99 83 88
TheAntiDoomer 111 76 92
Xenophobe 110 70 95
dolanbaker 124 82 115
kmann 102 70 86
basil_hayden 116 76 86
OilFinder2 94 77 83
jdmartin 135 78 109
Pops 138.99 89.99 109.99
Gerben 130 86 125
joewp 150 85 102
ColossalContrarian 137 88 119
Wisconsin cur 138.95 72.12 98.99
vtsnowedin 137 77 119
dblk 133 88 128
eXpat 140 90 120
obixman 135 82.5 130
Outcast Searcher 137.58 79.58 125.58
dorlomin 101 60 75
eastbay 135 78 127
Revi 157 80 110
thuja 145 85 130
sparky 150 80 122
biofuell3 137.52 74.68 135.14
Ibon 147 72 123
davep 145 65 135
Timo 165 77 135
careinke 151 69.15 148
IperlOOkm 165 88 165
roccman 225 70 185
Repent 500 91 250
')

[sparky]

.
Let's stick with WTI for the year , we can always keep watch on other indexes

-Brent
-Dubai
-Tupis
-OPEC basket

[PeakOiler]

As pup55 mentioned, the reason we are using WTI is that the EIA releases a downloadable spreadsheet each week for the WTI contract. If anyone knows of a downloadable spreadsheet for the other indexes, such as Brent, let us know, then perhaps that could be used for the game (next year). The rules of the game should not be changed just to change the standings in the "middle" of the contest...

Anyone is welcome to start their own spreadsheet based on Brent of course, but the data must be easily verified to an outside source.