Xeno,
Do you reject the idea that since 1919 we have become far better at modeling and predicting resource depletion including all facets of oil exploration and production?
Its a simple yes or no question.
PeakOil is You
What happened to the Peak Oil movement?
Re: What happened to the Peak Oil movement?
by AirlinePilot » Sun 13 Feb 2011, 12:46:11
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AirlinePilot - Moderator
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Re: What happened to the Peak Oil movement?
by Xenophobe » Sun 13 Feb 2011, 13:29:05
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'X')eno,
Do you reject the idea that since 1919 we have become far better at modeling and predicting resource depletion including all facets of oil exploration and production?
Its a simple yes or no question.
Do you reject the idea that since 1919 we have become far better at modeling and predicting resource depletion including all facets of oil exploration and production?
Its a simple yes or no question.
No it isn't. For starters, it appears to confuse "predicting resource depletion" with all the technological improvements related to finding, developing and producing oil and gas fields since then.
They aren't the same thing.
Having said that, we certainly have gotten better at oilfield exploration, development and production techniques, absolutely.
We don't appear to have gotten any better at predicting peak oils.
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Re: What happened to the Peak Oil movement?
by AirlinePilot » Sun 13 Feb 2011, 14:05:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'W')e don't appear to have gotten any better at predicting peak oils.
You have a problem understanding opinions versus facts. This is purely your opinion. After objectively considering the facts I cannot agree. Logic would dictate that as time goes on we get better at everything related to finding and extracting oil. That would include modeling and predicting where it is and how much might or might not be there.
This is the failure of your cornucopian argument. Its not based on science or logic when it comes to saying many peaks may lie ahead. It isn't born out by the facts. You have to believe, almost religiously, that oil is not a finite resource. Equating our abilities with what went on in 1919 proves my point.
I expected an answer as such, just wanted everyone to see it.
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Re: What happened to the Peak Oil movement?
by Xenophobe » Sun 13 Feb 2011, 16:33:22
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'W')e don't appear to have gotten any better at predicting peak oils.
You have a problem understanding opinions versus facts. This is purely your opinion.
I have no problem with understanding opinions versus facts. It is a fact that the running out of oil has been predicted starting shortly after oil was discovered.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')After objectively considering the facts I cannot agree.
The peak oil movement has a huge credibility problem when it comes to their definition of "facts". Misrepresentations of the information, cherry picking timeframes to scare people, censorship and editing of everything from discovery data to well production profiles, are all part of the "facts" of peak oil.
So....what do YOU consider to be the "facts"?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
') Logic would dictate that as time goes on we get better at everything related to finding and extracting oil. That would include modeling and predicting where it is and how much might or might not be there.
I would consider this a reasonable statement. And it has not stopped the hysteria advocated by the "running outters" in the least.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', '
')This is the failure of your cornucopian argument. Its not based on science or logic when it comes to saying many peaks may lie ahead. It isn't born out by the facts. You have to believe, almost religiously, that oil is not a finite resource. Equating our abilities with what went on in 1919 proves my point.
You are assembling a strawman and assigning it to me. That has nothing to do with your "factual" basis. When peak oil in the US was claimed in 1919, more peak oils DID lie in the future. When Campbell proclaimed peak oil for the world in 1989, more peak oils DID lie in the future. When Campbell declared more peak oils in the 1990's, more did lie in the future. When Ruppert and Savinar thought peak oil was in 2000/2001, peak oils were still in the future. When Deffeyes, Simmons and Ruppert declared peak oil in 2005, it is an OPINION that this pattern may continue to repeat itself. Based on the FACTUAL history of bad predictions. And who knows....certainly the evidence is that my multi peak angle is working out yet again makes me a better prognosticator of future scenarios than some of the Peak Oil Prophets have fared.
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2010/12/p ... crude.html
Noticing these facts under NO circumstances makes oil an infinite resource. It just means that we aren't any better at predicting peak oils now than we were in 1919. Certainly all these past bad predictions are historical fact. The only part that is my opinion is in the relative concept of how "badly" they have missed. Then, or now.
I hadn't noticed! 
