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The Deindustrialization of America

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby rangerone314 » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 19:14:10

#1) We need protectionism. (Fair trade is better than "free" trade)
#2) We need for corporations to pay at least the share of taxes they paid in the 1950's.
#3) We need to renovate the railways.
#4) We need mass transit.
#5) We need thorium-based nuclear.
#6) We need to toss a few people under the bus... both the old and the sick people if necessary, since cutting defense to 0 and earmarks to 0 would be useless next to slashing entitlements of medicaire, medicaide & social security.
#7) We need for retirement to go away as a concept. (an aberration of an experiment that will soon fail)
#8) We need to eliminate corporate personhood--it is a product of judicial activism, and is not in the Constitution.
#9) We need to go back to more logical ratios of executive to worker pay (which now from between 200&300 to 1 used to be about 50 to 1).
#10) We need to eradicate financial "innovation". Calling what Wall Street does "innovation" is like spiking a woman's drink with Rohypnol and calling it "dating innovation".

I could go on, but what's the point. These ideas make sense, which makes it beyond Congress to do any of these.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby rangerone314 » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 19:17:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')We are so FUBAR.


Thats what they said about peak oil as well, and look how run of the mill that turned out.

I'm sure someone said that about the Roman Empire before it fell, and look how that turned out.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Pretorian » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 19:23:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '#')7) We need for retirement to go away as a concept. (an aberration of an experiment that will soon fail)


How about a " job" to go away as a concept. Now that is something!
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 19:49:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')But everything will be fine ... the US needs more burger-flippers and other part-time service jobs ....


It's called efficiency Daniel. We are the largest manufacturing country in the world because we are really, really good at creating manufactured products with fewer and fewer people.

It is also a competitive advantage.

If you are upset by America not having much in the way of union jobs for people bolting tires on automobiles, fear not. That is why the service industry was created, to put people to work, at appropriate wage levels for the value of their capabilities, rather than overpaying them for the manufacturing equivalent, say, installing lugnuts bolting wheels on car tires.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 19:57:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '
')yet, i can assure you that there are millions of people that are seriously hurting. just because you have a job and make enough money to scoff at the difference between 2 or 3 dollar gas doesn't mean jack - for some people that's the difference between eating, paying rent, and bankruptcy.


People were hurting when peak oil was declared...in 1919. People are ALWAYS hurting, somewhere, for some reason. Buggy whip manufacturers undoubtedly predicted Doom more than a century ago...why? Because suddenly the invention of cars meant less business, so it was time to evolve, or die. Apply this example across many industries and disciplines, throw in a decent recession, and I completely agree that things are tough.

Just like they have been before. Those of us who lived through the 1979 peak oil and the attendant Jimmy induced economic effects were also suffering. Suffering builds character and experience with the way the world works. I will bet that fewer people will treat their homes like an ATM in the future. Fair bet, or reasonable prediction do you think? I will bet that fewer people will dare "drive till they qualify" if their budget is truly so tight that they can't withstand a $50/month increase in their fuel budget. As though that was more significant than their mortgage resetting $800/month higher. Which do you honestly think was the REAL cause of their economic duress?
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 19:59:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')We are so FUBAR.


Thats what they said about peak oil as well, and look how run of the mill that turned out.

I'm sure someone said that about the Roman Empire before it fell, and look how that turned out.


Predictions of Doom are not unique. Neither is ACTUAL Doom.

But one based on oil supplies just doesn't seem to have much gas...if you can forgive the pun. :lol:
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 20:05:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'B')ut one based on oil supplies just doesn't seem to have much gas...if you can forgive the pun. :lol:


Cool, Xeno ... That's such an awesome pun that I'm tempted to offer it as a "Suggestion for Member Quotes" ... :lol: ... ... Such genius, Xeno ... such pure, unbridled genius at work ... :razz:
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 20:17:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')But everything will be fine ... the US needs more burger-flippers and other part-time service jobs ....


It is also a competitive advantage.



The competitive advantage lies with Asian countries that aren't saddled with layer upon layer of laws, statutes, and regulations governing labor & employment; environmental destruction; theft of intellectual property; antitrust; securities; taxation; etc.

As long as the US's labyrinthine legal framework stifles its international competitiveness, manufacturing jobs will be off-shored ...
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 20:24:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')But everything will be fine ... the US needs more burger-flippers and other part-time service jobs ....


It is also a competitive advantage.



The competitive advantage lies with Asian countries that aren't saddled with layer upon layer of laws, statutes, and regulations governing labor & employment; environmental destruction; theft of intellectual property; antitrust; securities; taxation; etc.


Maybe...so we let THEM become a nation of air wrench wielding lugnut installing specialists, and we devote ourselves to cranking out more engineers, scientists, biotech specialists and higher standards in public education to feed this educating of America? Certainly worth a try?

Pretending that the future of America rests on turning our citizens back into overpaid and minimally efficient union workers does not strike me as a solution Daniel.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 20:37:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')But everything will be fine ... the US needs more burger-flippers and other part-time service jobs ....


It is also a competitive advantage.



The competitive advantage lies with Asian countries that aren't saddled with layer upon layer of laws, statutes, and regulations governing labor & employment; environmental destruction; theft of intellectual property; antitrust; securities; taxation; etc.


Maybe...so we let THEM become a nation of air wrench wielding lugnut installing specialists, and we devote ourselves to cranking out more engineers, scientists, biotech specialists and higher standards in public education to feed this educating of America? Certainly worth a try?

Pretending that the future of America rests on turning our citizens back into overpaid and minimally efficient union workers does not strike me as a solution Daniel.


I'd prefer a more balanced approach, whereupon the US would simultaneously: (1) achieve a "level playing field" viz. Asia with respect to legal regulation; (2) maximize its predominance of intellectual property (i.e., "cranking out more engineers, scientists, biotech specialists"); and (3) shift from a services-oriented economy to a manufacturing-oriented economy.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 20:46:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')Pretending that the future of America rests on turning our citizens back into overpaid and minimally efficient union workers does not strike me as a solution Daniel.


I'd prefer a more balanced approach, whereupon the US would simultaneously: (1) achieve a "level playing field" viz. Asia with respect to legal regulation; (2) maximize its predominance of intellectual property (i.e., "cranking out more engineers, scientists, biotech specialists"); and (3) shift from a services-oriented economy to a manufacturing-oriented economy.


I think that there is no more shifting to a manufacturing economy left. The world of the future will not revolve around those who can bolt together a car because EVERYONE can bolt together a car. It is not a special skill. But the company which can design, test, manufacture and crank out a fully finished Volt in 5 years time? THAT is something we are still as good at as anyone I think, and leverage into a better future.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby rangerone314 » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 22:30:42

China has universities that crank out scientists and engineers that are as good as ours or better, and in far greater numbers.

I have this first hand from an American professor who has married a Chinese woman.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 22:56:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daniel_Plainview', '
')
I'd prefer a more balanced approach, whereupon the US would simultaneously: (1) achieve a "level playing field" viz. Asia with respect to legal regulation; (2) maximize its predominance of intellectual property (i.e., "cranking out more engineers, scientists, biotech specialists"); and (3) shift from a services-oriented economy to a manufacturing-oriented economy.


Several major issues there which have no simple solution:

1/ The level legal playing field.

In Asia it can be easier to get forgiveness than permission. Backdated planning permissions are routine in a lot of countries, can anyone see the US allowing open slather development on a private contract basis and post dated planning allowances? Not me. How about the minimum wage? In most of Asia that's less than $5 USD per DAY. What would happen in the USA if any government tried that?

2/ Intellectual property dominance.

Applying to what industrial products? The ones coming out of Hollywood? Ever been to a market in Asia? Enforcement of copyright laws is near enough to impossible, let alone engineering IP. Re-engineering is so commonplace in Asia it's rediculous. Chinese companies routinely rip off designs so blatently as to use original products to cast moulds for their copies. They make a few tiny modifications and claim originality of design. Little by little resistance in first world markets has been wearing away. Nobody can afford not to do business with China, so nobody kicks up too much of a stink about their industrial espionage or copy cattery.

2/b. Ever looked at the numbers of engineering and science grads in China and India?

3/ Reversion to manufacturing vs service economy.

(see 1 & 2) Much more easily said than done. The absolute necessity for the US to fix up it's trade imbalance hinges on oil dependence. Stupidly, this has never been put as the central focus of any government. If the US could get off imported oil, it can continue to have a service dominated economy, it's that simple. The only way to do as you suggest is to compete directly with China; which means paying dirt wages, removing worker entitlements, restricting environmental protections and ignoring patent law. Nope. Easier to get serious about getting off oil.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Xenophobe » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 23:26:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'C')hina has universities that crank out scientists and engineers that are as good as ours or better, and in far greater numbers.

I have this first hand from an American professor who has married a Chinese woman.


You are completely correct. And in the next 30 years, they will spend their careers building roads and buildings and normal infrastructure. Figuring out how to drill shale wells. Whereas our engineers will build even better Volts. Cheaper Volts. More shale wells. Etc etc.

Innovation is tough to teach in school. Americans seem to have not only random chunks of it laying around, and use it.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby rangerone314 » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 23:42:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'C')hina has universities that crank out scientists and engineers that are as good as ours or better, and in far greater numbers.

I have this first hand from an American professor who has married a Chinese woman.


You are completely correct. And in the next 30 years, they will spend their careers building roads and buildings and normal infrastructure. Figuring out how to drill shale wells. Whereas our engineers will build even better Volts. Cheaper Volts. More shale wells. Etc etc.

Innovation is tough to teach in school. Americans seem to have not only random chunks of it laying around, and use it.

They are going to leapfrog past us, while we sink quicksand like into 3rd Worldhood.

Skip the telephone lines in exchange for cellphones, skipping incadescents for LEDs, they are also building a good bit of highspeed trains. Where are ours?
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 07 Jan 2011, 23:55:21

3rd worldhood is not nearly as bad as people who have never lived in it think.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 00:02:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')Innovation is tough to teach in school. Americans seem to have not only random chunks of it laying around, and use it.

They are going to leapfrog past us, while we sink quicksand like into 3rd Worldhood.


In the 80's, that is what they said about the Japanese. deleted, knock it off

Predictions of Doom are common. Occurrences are more rare. Predicting an actual occurrence BEFORE it happens, near impossible. Sure the Chinese will be the great matchup with the US in the 21st century, but leapfrog past? Nah....it's not like the rules of resource depletion will somehow be repealed for them, or operate any differently than they do for everyone else.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '
')Skip the telephone lines in exchange for cellphones, skipping incadescents for LEDs, they are also building a good bit of highspeed trains. Where are ours?


The power, wealth or influence of a country isn't determined by its highspeed train count.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 00:17:42

I think meeting in the middle is more likely than China leapfrogging the US. US standards of living can fall a long way before meeting China's. The US has suffered calamity before and come out stronger for it. The pill will not be easy to swallow and it will either kill or heal the patient.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 00:29:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SeaGypsy', 'I') think meeting in the middle is more likely than China leapfrogging the US. US standards of living can fall a long way before meeting China's. The US has suffered calamity before and come out stronger for it. The pill will not be easy to swallow and it will either kill or heal the patient.


Deleted Don't know what overall good it will do them in a race against America for the most influential country of the 21st century, but it should be fun to watch.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 00:44:53

Just to put some perspective on this. Some people seem to have an idea that the middle class in China paralells consumption of the middle class in the USA. (1 year old figures):

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he per-capita disposable income of urban people was 17,175 yuan ($2,514.6) in 2009, up 8.8 percent from a year earlier, said Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Per-capita disposable income of rural residents stood at 5,153 yuan last year, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points lower than that of urban residents.


http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2 ... 361049.htm

China's current estimated GDP is 5.7 trillion $USD.
The US GDP estimate for 2010 is around $14 trillion (5 times as many people making less than half the $)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... P_(nominal)_per_capita
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