PeakOil is You
The Deindustrialization of America
Re: The Deindustrialization of America
by Xenophobe » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 01:01:35
I agree. While I assume China becomes an interesting counterbalance to the US, I also give them the entire century to do it. Right now...it still isn't fair, and pretending they are going to go leapfrogging by tomorrow afternoon...nah...doesn't work for me.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America
by SeaGypsy » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 07:45:22
The complete lack of willingness towards austerity does not bode well for slowing either China's rise or the US' demise.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America
by Cloud9 » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 10:00:53
Read Sun-tzu The Art of War. There is a good translation by Ralph Sawyer. That will help you gain some insight into what we are up against. To assume that we do not face a real danger of being surpassed by the Chinese is hubris.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America
by SeaGypsy » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 11:34:32
You don't need to tell a Chinaman to read Sun-Tzu.
Their morale is huge right now. Even though you can feel and see austerity kicking in around Asia, the humm of China grows in the region as the world, only louder. The Chinese mood is optimistic on the edge of boistrous; they feel this century is theirs and they are busily trying to make it so.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')omplete triumph strategy: subduing the enemy's troops without any fighting. This thinking is very much recommended by modern western strategist. The so-called "subduing the enemy's troops without any fighting" is realized while two armies pit against each other, it is actually a kind of deterrent strategy;
Strategy of combing deterrent with attack: by diplomacy, dividing and disintegrating the enemy, consolidating and expanding our own alliance, so as to isolate the enemy and cut off the enemy from their relief troops, to ultimately subdue the enemy;
Strategy of winning a first victory: he who is well prepared will be victorious;
Deception strategy: attacking him where he is unprepared, appearing where you are not expected;
Strategy of striving for seizing the initiative;
Strategy of turning disadvantages into advantages;
Speedy victory strategy: launching a speedy and sudden attack;
Strategy of victory with ease: attacking the enemy's weak points;
Certain victory strategy: we can concentrate our forces, while the enemy's must be divided, hence we shall be able to use many to attack the enemy's few, and attack an inferior force with a superior one;
Strategy of psychological combat. Avoiding strength: first, avoiding the enemy for the time being when he is strong and striking the enemy when he is tired; second, disintegrating the enemy's morale to shake the army's morale. Psychological attack: seizing the hearts of the enemy's generals, disordering and controlling their thinking, so as to make them in disorder.
Their morale is huge right now. Even though you can feel and see austerity kicking in around Asia, the humm of China grows in the region as the world, only louder. The Chinese mood is optimistic on the edge of boistrous; they feel this century is theirs and they are busily trying to make it so.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')omplete triumph strategy: subduing the enemy's troops without any fighting. This thinking is very much recommended by modern western strategist. The so-called "subduing the enemy's troops without any fighting" is realized while two armies pit against each other, it is actually a kind of deterrent strategy;
Strategy of combing deterrent with attack: by diplomacy, dividing and disintegrating the enemy, consolidating and expanding our own alliance, so as to isolate the enemy and cut off the enemy from their relief troops, to ultimately subdue the enemy;
Strategy of winning a first victory: he who is well prepared will be victorious;
Deception strategy: attacking him where he is unprepared, appearing where you are not expected;
Strategy of striving for seizing the initiative;
Strategy of turning disadvantages into advantages;
Speedy victory strategy: launching a speedy and sudden attack;
Strategy of victory with ease: attacking the enemy's weak points;
Certain victory strategy: we can concentrate our forces, while the enemy's must be divided, hence we shall be able to use many to attack the enemy's few, and attack an inferior force with a superior one;
Strategy of psychological combat. Avoiding strength: first, avoiding the enemy for the time being when he is strong and striking the enemy when he is tired; second, disintegrating the enemy's morale to shake the army's morale. Psychological attack: seizing the hearts of the enemy's generals, disordering and controlling their thinking, so as to make them in disorder.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America
by nobodypanic » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 13:49:14
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '
')yet, i can assure you that there are millions of people that are seriously hurting. just because you have a job and make enough money to scoff at the difference between 2 or 3 dollar gas doesn't mean jack - for some people that's the difference between eating, paying rent, and bankruptcy.
')yet, i can assure you that there are millions of people that are seriously hurting. just because you have a job and make enough money to scoff at the difference between 2 or 3 dollar gas doesn't mean jack - for some people that's the difference between eating, paying rent, and bankruptcy.
People were hurting when peak oil was declared...in 1919. People are ALWAYS hurting, somewhere, for some reason. Buggy whip manufacturers undoubtedly predicted Doom more than a century ago...why? Because suddenly the invention of cars meant less business, so it was time to evolve, or die. Apply this example across many industries and disciplines, throw in a decent recession, and I completely agree that things are tough.
Just like they have been before. Those of us who lived through the 1979 peak oil and the attendant Jimmy induced economic effects were also suffering. Suffering builds character and experience with the way the world works. I will bet that fewer people will treat their homes like an ATM in the future. Fair bet, or reasonable prediction do you think? I will bet that fewer people will dare "drive till they qualify" if their budget is truly so tight that they can't withstand a $50/month increase in their fuel budget. As though that was more significant than their mortgage resetting $800/month higher. Which do you honestly think was the REAL cause of their economic duress?
so everyone that's getting crushed has or had an ARM mortgage? seriously? look, there are plenty of people who have fixed mortgages that are getting hurt, or people that simply rent. people shoved into your wonderful service economy are extremely sensitive to gasoline price fluctuations, right now, not circa '07 or '08, right now, minus any sort of mortgage.
and hand-waving away that unemployment spike with, 'well there's always people that are suffering,' is something only a smug, spoiled still employed member of the middle class could do - it's the bourgeois equivalent of 'let them eat cake!'
as i said, i understand your frustration in the face of the eternal drumbeat of 'there will be mad-max and zombies over-night,' but , man, you're running nearly as crazy in the other direction.
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America
by rangerone314 » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 14:49:15
Americans like to think that they are special but they are not. They are just another variation of the species that is half-a-step away from poop-throwing monkey. And even if past American generations were special, there is nothing to indicate this is true of present generations, especially ones like the baby boomers who seem to think they are entitled to much more than any generation that either preceeded or comes after them. It is like when you have a football team that was great once decades ago, and now they suck... they play in the same stadium and wear the same uniform but it is different players playing, which is why they suck.
America rose up like Rome in similar ways, in fact had more advantages. Rome really faced one worthy opponent truly capable of ending it, early on (Carthage) just like America (British Empire). They fought 3 wars, we fought 2. (Some how I don't think America could have won a 3rd resulting in American soldiers symbolically sowing salt into the soil of London) Once those opponents were beaten, it was pretty much a romp against really weak enemies. Rome was partially isolated by distance from the most dangerous enemies for a while (Asia would be the main threat)... America just had to contend with Mexico and weak tribes, having the Atlantic Ocean as protection.
Our democratic system was so successful that it resulted in a bloody Civil War resulting in fun stuff such as burning down Atlanta. Notice echoes of Atlanta in Waco, Ruby Ridge, the Bonus Army (1932) and Homeland Security feeling up old ladies. The government and the top 1%ers have only contempt for the rest of Americans: we are just cows to be milked and beaten down or cattle-prodded when we moo too loud.
We had a good run at being a world power because all of the competent cultures (ones which would normally possess more staying power) were mostly bombed out after WWII, and we had a head start over the rest. We set up a nice economic system with the dollar to benefit us, etc. In 1970s with US importing more oil (as US oil production peaked), we see Pres. Nixon dissing gold, and Reagan in the 1980s kicking off the truly large deficit spending (borrowing from the future prosperity to maintain the illusion of a power the US possessed after WWII).
Borrowing from the future is a nice trick, keeps the cows happy enough from mooing too loud without having to use clubs, and the elites get their milk. We live in a culture where the leaders (and the cows under them) could choose between being the ant and being the grasshopper, and they have chosen to be the grasshopper. Well we got a nice Kondratiev winter and also in the future the US credit card strategy will fail after hyperinflation sets in and interest rates go up.
Countries that will prevail will do so because they are the ant that stores food for the winter, not the grasshopper that parties like its 1999.
America rose up like Rome in similar ways, in fact had more advantages. Rome really faced one worthy opponent truly capable of ending it, early on (Carthage) just like America (British Empire). They fought 3 wars, we fought 2. (Some how I don't think America could have won a 3rd resulting in American soldiers symbolically sowing salt into the soil of London) Once those opponents were beaten, it was pretty much a romp against really weak enemies. Rome was partially isolated by distance from the most dangerous enemies for a while (Asia would be the main threat)... America just had to contend with Mexico and weak tribes, having the Atlantic Ocean as protection.
Our democratic system was so successful that it resulted in a bloody Civil War resulting in fun stuff such as burning down Atlanta. Notice echoes of Atlanta in Waco, Ruby Ridge, the Bonus Army (1932) and Homeland Security feeling up old ladies. The government and the top 1%ers have only contempt for the rest of Americans: we are just cows to be milked and beaten down or cattle-prodded when we moo too loud.
We had a good run at being a world power because all of the competent cultures (ones which would normally possess more staying power) were mostly bombed out after WWII, and we had a head start over the rest. We set up a nice economic system with the dollar to benefit us, etc. In 1970s with US importing more oil (as US oil production peaked), we see Pres. Nixon dissing gold, and Reagan in the 1980s kicking off the truly large deficit spending (borrowing from the future prosperity to maintain the illusion of a power the US possessed after WWII).
Borrowing from the future is a nice trick, keeps the cows happy enough from mooing too loud without having to use clubs, and the elites get their milk. We live in a culture where the leaders (and the cows under them) could choose between being the ant and being the grasshopper, and they have chosen to be the grasshopper. Well we got a nice Kondratiev winter and also in the future the US credit card strategy will fail after hyperinflation sets in and interest rates go up.
Countries that will prevail will do so because they are the ant that stores food for the winter, not the grasshopper that parties like its 1999.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right
Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take
You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown
Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take
You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown
Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: The Deindustrialization of America
by Xenophobe » Sat 08 Jan 2011, 15:58:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', ' ')I will bet that fewer people will dare "drive till they qualify" if their budget is truly so tight that they can't withstand a $50/month increase in their fuel budget. As though that was more significant than their mortgage resetting $800/month higher. Which do you honestly think was the REAL cause of their economic duress?
so everyone that's getting crushed has or had an ARM mortgage? seriously?
You can't say "everyone" because undoubtedly not EVERYONE has the same root cause for their economic circumstances. But certainly there is far less dispute that we had a housing/finance crisis, and this had very little to do with some much smaller increase in commuting costs for Americans. Particularly when 50% of their gasoline use is discretionary.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '
')look, there are plenty of people who have fixed mortgages that are getting hurt, or people that simply rent. people shoved into your wonderful service economy are extremely sensitive to gasoline price fluctuations, right now, not circa '07 or '08, right now, minus any sort of mortgage.
Define "extremely sensitive to gasoline price fluctuations" please. A majority of Americans drive less than 40 miles a day. A majority of Americans don't drive monster trucks, and require what, a gallon or two of gasoline a day? Median income in America is $30G's a year? Are you seriously suggesting that an extra $1 or $2 a day is crippling to someone making $80/day? Seriously? And when they choose to drive half as much and pay the same old same old, you suggest then that same old same old is crippling?
I don't buy it, the numbers simply don't add up.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '
')and hand-waving away that unemployment spike with, 'well there's always people that are suffering,' is something only a smug, spoiled still employed member of the middle class could do - it's the bourgeois equivalent of 'let them eat cake!'
You might consider it smug, I consider it a fact. Go back to 2005 during the Boom times. Guess what? People were suffering then as well,Deleted. Stop picking fights
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', '
')as i said, i understand your frustration in the face of the eternal drumbeat of 'there will be mad-max and zombies over-night,' but , man, you're running nearly as crazy in the other direction.
