[oowolf]

Are we sorting out the "uberdoomers" here? Where do I sign up?
The greater the overshoot the harder the dieoff is all I need to know about what's coming.
Morbid curiosity keeps me hanging on to see what actually happens.
Nevertheless, I am currently running a living repository of over 100 edible and medicinal plants that will be needed by the survivors, if any.

[Tyler_JC]

PMS, you're getting ahead of yourself!

We won't see total chaos in The West for at least another 30 years. We still have enough fuel to keep everyone in this country alive for a while. Africa will starve. Hundreds of millions of people with names we can't spell will die and no one here will notice or care. It's the way of the world .

We can use the surplus resources created by the death and extreme poverty of the third world masses to continue a half-way decent standard of living for the Westerners. BTW, Western is a culture distinction that doesn't really have to do with geography (Japan is a Western nation by my definition). But back to the point, we aren't going to see starvation en mass in the First World for quite some time. We have enough sway to force the rest of the world to feed us until we can get out act together.

I'm basing this on the Irish Potatoe famine. People in Ireland starved. People in England ate imported Irish food, 'nuff said. We won't be watching Survivor anymore, but we won't be living it for at least another 1/4 century.

[oowolf]

The instigating event of the dieoff will be social hysteria. Look at how people act in Florida everytime there's a hurricane warning. Hoarding bottled water and batteries, "runs" on plywood. How do you suppose folks are going to act when GM and Ford go bankrupt, the housing bubble bursts, "money" suddenly devalues, H5N1 gets loose, Gas $5/gal, etc.
Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis? The Watts/Rodney King Riots?I do. Panic, looting, mayhem, martial law...

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'P')MS, you're getting ahead of yourself!

[Ludi]

Kochevik, aside from you telling us we're all nuts and completely wrong, can you tell us anything of value? That is, can you share some wisdom with us which will help us survive? Or is it your intent to merely tell us we're doomed and that you know better than we do?

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '
')trying to keep your flock of 50 chickens safe from weasels only to lose them to your dog instead. Ever eat dog ? I have.

[Ludi]

Thanks kochenvik, not really sure why you felt the ad hominem was necessary. I do feel I post a good deal of real information in the Planning forum, but maybe you don't go there much?

You've given me virtually nothing I didn't know already. Is that really all you have to offer?

I'm sorry you have to go to a job, and then go home to do some "real work." That's a real shame.

[Tyler_JC]

Before we turn this thread into a flame war, let me try to intervene.

I threw out the 30 year figure as the time between now and the end of industrial civilization. Between now and then, the Middle Class will disappear. Globalization will disappear. The NYSE, Federal Reserve, US Federal Government, European Union, United Nations, and thousands of other organization created out of a "need" for increased Bureaucracy. In 30 years time, Wal*Mart will be gone, Home Depot will vanish, and the local supermarket will no longer have fresh pears in January (unless you live in Panama, but then, it doesn't really matter). Suburbia is on its way out right now...(in theory).

You're right, the limiting factor is energy. Long commutes will go out of fashion and people will attempt to sell their SUVs and buy smaller cars. A series of recessions will cut down oil demand for a long period of time. Lots of people will be out of work and many will lose their homes. However, the government won't allow them to die off in large numbers. There will be some sort of Soup Kitchen "solution". Jobs once done by machines will be done by people. But this only gets you so far...

Pretty soon the laws of deminishing return kick in. Efficiency peaks and the average standard of living drops below the povery line. That's when chaos breaks out. The Government will go completely broke and we will have to learn how to care for ourselves. I don't know how this plays out or how long it will take. At max, 30 years. But it could be as little as 10.

http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/ predicts this and I think it's fairly reasonable:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Rise in oil prices bring on recession in North America and Europe. Blamed on OPEC.
Food and power shortages hit Asian and African countries but is largely ignored in the Developed World as "this is what is expected over there".
Major dispute between Canada and USA as people of the former wonder why they should have to freeze so that their natural gas can keep the people of the latter warm (or cool, as the case may be).
Yet another 'discovery' of the enormous resource in tar sands. Yet another attempt to explain why it isn't the same as conventional oil.
Oil depletion causes aviation fuel to soar in price. Distant tourist areas such as Pacific islands, South Africa and Australia/New Zealand notice massive drops in visitors which result in rises in unemployment.
Oil shortages in China force it to resort to coal to produce electricity. Acid rain and other pollutions spread across Korea and Japan.
Blackouts and brownouts hit the USA and Europe. Blamed on privatisation / effects of global warming / recession / aliens.
Exotic foods in shops begin to rise in price and become less common. There is a new fad for turning parts of your garden aside for growing vegetables. Endless TV shows about gardening.
In the home, there is a rise in energy-saving measures such as small solar heating panels, lightbulbs, insulation. Endless TV shows about DIY.
Rise of interest in small cars and motorcycles (anything rather than public transport). Four wheel drive vehicles become even more embarrassing to own and are given away free with breakfast cereals.
War breaks out between Vietnam and the Philippines over oil in the South China Sea.
Worldwide reductions in crop yields. Costs of food soar. Millions starve or suffer from malnutrition. Global economies devastated by need to feed their populations. Revolutions spread across South America and Africa. Banking system in collapse.
OPEC restricts supplies of oil to USA, already suffering massive losses of hydrocarbon supplies.
Third World War begins..

[PenultimateManStanding]

OK kochevnik. You told us how the dog killed the chickens and then said you 'ate dog'. Seemed like a logical conclusion that you killed it because it was a bad doggie and then ate it.

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'O')K kochevnik. You told us how the dog killed the chickens and then said you 'ate dog'. Seemed like a logical conclusion that you killed it because it was a bad doggie and then ate it.

[mgibbons19]

Kochevnik,

You don't live on an island do you? In a home-built timber framed shack? Working as an EMT on the mainland? If so, it's been a couple years.

Wouldn't it be wierd to bump into real humans on the internet?

[PenultimateManStanding]

A waitress I work with said that if anyone tried to kill and eat her dog that she would kill and eat them first.

[smallpoxgirl]

I've never had dog, though it looks like I'm going to the Sun Dance in August, so this may be my chance.

[FarmMama]

Koch:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Ok, so much for being polite. How about 'you people have your head way far up your ass.'

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '
')
I wish you luck on that eternal optimism thing.

[heyhoser]

Dear kochevnik,

I was going to start the flames, but cooled my jets, went away, came back. FarmMama replied to you in a better way than I could have. But, here are my two cents anyway.

First of all, you're retarded. Okay, got that out of my system.

As for the rest of it, I don't know what you're doing to prepare for PO and for the horrible, and in many ways, beneficial changes that are coming, but judging us as a whole and basically saying that we don't know squat and we have no idea how to do things, well, this just proves the point I mentioned in the second paragraph.

I like how FarmMama said not to come around her community post PO, because they shoot mean people. Yep. Kudos to you, Mama. We do that, too.

As for my earlier post in this thread, I would have spoken more about what I was talking about in terms of 'Country Boys Can Survie' thingy, but this thread quickly degenerated into a fantasy Mad Max scenario vs. a fantasy alternate energy scenario. To all of you who talked about, 'Where are you going to get the trot line?' and that kind of stuff, it's called "PREPARATION." It's almost as if we're going back in time to my mother's (not great-great grandmother's) generation in that cars and electricity will be obsolete. Only, they didn't get a chance to stock up on today's materials. And jesus, how much junk do you see laying around that you could put to use?

Back to you, kochevnik. No one will survive ultimate PO alone, except maybe for the handful of diehards. Are you one of those? Maybe you need a 'community' which consists of families who've known each other for generations and think of themselves as brothers, sisters, mothers, sons. The world is not ending, for christ's sake. We're just going backwards a hundred years. Yeah, a lot of people will die. Especially you guys STILL living in the cities without a clue as to how to grow crops or breed animals or hunt or set up a network in your community. If you think you can wait until TSHTF, then you're wrong. Crops take time to grow, to cultivate. Orchards don't produce for YEARS. Blackberries and raspberries don't produce fruit normally for two years.

It's a lot of work, hard work on your hands and knees in the hot sun with the dirt in your hair and under your fingernails. What are you doing to be able to pass judgement so quickly?

One last thing, babe. Your dog killed your chickens (because you/your parents messed up) so you had the dog killed, right? But, you didn't do it yourselves, you took the poor 'wittle' puppy to the vet so he could die nicely, right? That's such a joke. You have no idea what farm life is like. One of our dogs tore the stomach out of another of our dogs last month. I got all the dogs together and then blew the killer's brains all over the fence post where I had tethered him.

Grow up or go away.

[Bytesmiths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FarmMama', 'A')re you talking about marauding bands of city folk? The ones who never walk, eat potato chips and puff up mightily on their keyboards but have never discharged a firearm?

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', 'A')s for my earlier post in this thread, I would have spoken more about what I was talking about in terms of 'Country Boys Can Survie' thingy, but this thread quickly degenerated into a fantasy Mad Max scenario vs. a fantasy alternate energy scenario. To all of you who talked about, 'Where are you going to get the trot line?' and that kind of stuff, it's called "PREPARATION."

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raphael', '
')Being born into the Kogi, actually would have been refreshing.