[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'O')k - not to throw the curve (again)

High - $225

Low - $70

Close - $185

Cheers

[roccman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'O')k - not to throw the curve (again)

High - $225

Low - $70

Close - $185

Cheers

[TheDude]

Hey Rocc. That must be (one of the?) LATOC Mk 2, eh?

[PeakOiler]

Just for fun, I entered some oil prices based on some of the latest data from

http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

and also entered the EIA and Goldman Sachs numbers which kublikhan suggested for comparison purposes only. (The GS estimates are for Brent crude, so this hypothetical is skewed in that sense.)

So here's what the list would look like for this "What If?" :



btw, what are your guesses, pupp? Are you waiting for the deadline? lol

[pup55]

I normally wait until almost the end....

While I am thinking, I am sure you saw this cheery note on Yahoo this morning...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')EW YORK (AP) -- The price of oil is poised for another run at $100 a barrel after a global economic rebound sent it surging 34 percent since May. That could push gasoline prices to $4 a gallon by summer in some parts of the country, experts say.

[joewp]

OK, I'll play.

High: $150 Low:$85 Close:$102

In 1970, the US lost pricing power on the supply side. Sometime in the last 2 or 3 years we lost pricing power on the demand side. The BRIC countries increasing demand is what drives the demand side today. Fluctuations in US demand are small in comparison.

This first recession was magnified by the collapse of the housing bubble. Right now, the only real bubble is the stock market. Based on recent demand figures from the WPSR that pup55 does better in predicting than the "experts", it seems that we might have a pretty good Summer demand which will break the old record. Since there's no housing bubble to pop, the stock market bubble will, and that doesn't effect consumers purchasing power as much, so there won't be as bad a double dip in the US. So the low comes within the next month, it spikes in the Summer and settles down to a 10% or so increase by the end of the year. Sort of like a less extreme version of 2008.

It could happen, right?

Oh, and Hofmeister is the guy who owns a farm in Amish country that has a river and a large waterwheel mill, perfect for grinding grains when there's not more fossil fuel energy left. I posted it here a few years ago from his Shell bio and soon after that it was replaced by a new bio that was mysteriously missing that info.

[Revi]

I am in the bottom third of the pack just like last year. We'll see what happens with the price, but I'm okay with that start. Seabiscuit always started in the back, and worked her way up. Maybe I can break out this year.

[Midessa]

Hey PeakOiler,

I noticed that my low and close are reversed on your chart.

[dblk]

High - $ 133
Low - $ 88
Close - $ 128

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Midessa', 'H')ey PeakOiler,

I noticed that my low and close are reversed on your chart.

[PeakOiler]

Here's the updated list:



The deadline for posting your guesses is quickly approaching...

The oil price numbers in the spreadsheet are estimates at this time. The EIA will release the official WTI prices later this week.

I'd like to stock up on maple syrup.

[pup55]

Allright, here it is:

Last year's average was 79.52....OPEC has openly stated their desire to let the average price rise by $1 per month.....

so that would make next year's average about $91.52

Over the past 7 years, omitting the screwed up year of 2008 when OPEC lost control of the market, the difference between the high for the year and the average was an average of 14.66..... so the 2011 high should be about 106.18

Similarly the difference between the low for the year and the average has averaged 13.86 which equates to a low price of 77.66

The annual closing price has been, on average, 88.6% of the yearly high... this year was an exception what with it being pretty close to 100 percent of the yearly high..... anyway that equates to a year end price of 94.04

The basic theory is: Demand is still going to be weak enough that OPEC will still be able to control the market, within reasonable limits...the average, increasing by 1 dollar per month, plus or minus a range of 14 or so for market fluctuation, per what was stated above...

High: 106.18
Low: 77.66
Close: 94.04

p.s. I am not at all sure the US economy can stand much higher than the above for any length of time..... in its current styrofoam state....the industrial base is diminished, the banking sector insolvent, what with all of those bad real estate loans on the books of every bank in the country, and what with the US treasury pumping free money directly into the pockets of the hedge fund managers and shareholders of Goldman Sachs...that whole game is built on a foundation of nothing but hot air right now, and it amazes me every day that it somehow continues in this fashion without the outrage of the general public, which seems to be completely in the dark....

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')PEC has openly stated their desire to let the average price rise by $1 per month.....

so that would make next year's average about $91.52

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o they take their 2011 starting average from the 2010 average price or the 2010 end price?

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')audi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi arrived in Cairo today without commenting to reporters. He said in Quito on Dec. 11 that oil at $70 to $80 a barrel is a good price, that the market is stable and supply and demand are in balance, while Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad al-Abdullah al-Sabah said then that he was satisfied with prices near $90.

Qatar’s Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah has said oil in the $80s is best for producers and consumers. Algerian Oil Minister Youcef Yousfi said at a conference in Doha on Dec. 1 that the market is in a “normal situation” and prices are likely to be stable for months.

Some Wall Street strategists expect prices will return to $100 for the first time in two years during 2011 amid rising global demand, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

[kmann]

Hi: 102
Lo: 70
Close: 86

[PeakOiler]

Reminder: Today is the deadline for entering your guesses.

Below is my current scorecard as of 4-Jan after the EIA posted their data Wednesday:



You never know what kind of love and respect one might gain from the game.

Edit: I noticed the image shows one row of the spreadsheet is still hidden. That's why the "Rank" number at the bottom is wrong. I'll fix that by the next update.

[copious.abundance]

OK here's mine.

High: $94
Low: $77
Close: $83

[Carlhole]

Oh, I didn't give a number for the close. How 'bout $98.

Thx

[pup55]

PO.com Oil Price Challenge Hall of Fame
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Year Player Total Score
2010 SeaGypsy 4.88
2009 obixman 12.41
2008 LoneSnark 76.82
tie kmann 76.82