[jmacdaddio]

Like most others on this board I believe in the next 15-20 years we're approaching a period of change that will radically alter the Western (ok, US) lifestyle. You can start to hoard ammo and learn how to use your Kalashnikov, or you can anticipate the changes and get on board with the winners.

Who will be the winners of the coming crunch? I'll list 5, then I'll stop babbling.

1. Developers of fabrication techniques. There are ways of "printing" objects in research. It sounds like Star Trek but it will allow manufacturers to create any component they need (within limits) from a stored design rather than having long supply lines stretching oceans apart.
2. Organic farmers. They don't use conventional fertilizers, pesticides, etc so their operating costs are lower and they are not slaves to Monsanto. They will still need to move their organic produce to market, but they will have a leg up on their conventional friends.
3. Manufacturers of mass transit infrastructure. When regions get serious about providing alternatives to sitting in traffic on the highway, look for producers of trains and streetcars to profit.
4. Manufacturers of small, fuel-efficient vehicles. Toyota, Honda, VW come to mind. GM just doesn't get it.
5. Solar panel manufacturers. It is now possible to install rooftop solar panels and substantially decrease one's dependence on the electric grid.

Everyone else, please add to the list. I need to design my investment strategy

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

6. trades and agricultural schools I forsee a lot of employement changing.

7. manure industries to create organic fertilizers and process man-made wastes.

8. land rentals for people who need a place to grow their food

[skateari]

Some more winners (or at least will be better then the loosers):

9. stores such as 'Mothers Market' or other chain grocery stores that get their food from organic sources rather then our normal markets which sell petro-food.

10. Electric cars - that can be run off solar energy (goes along with the solar industry gaining momentum). A full system can be installed to collect sunlight and power your engine (along with your house).

11. Graveyards - with Peak Oil, cemetaries will be in high demand

12. Military/weapond manufactours - with the comming years war will domanite as the world fights for remaining resources. Investing in stocks related to the miltary industry would (and have been) a good idea.

[EddieB]

13. Trees, a woodlot of your own or company that own timber land.

[Tanada]

14: Freight rail companies, they already undercut long haul truck shipping rates and the gap is going to grow as the price of oil increases.

[Berkeley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', '
')8. land rentals for people who need a place to grow their food

[DomusAlbion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Berkeley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', '
')8. land rentals for people who need a place to grow their food

[Leanan]

I don't think anyone will be winners. Fabrication techniques and the like all take a lot of energy. Even organic farmers will likely suffer. They currently get a premium for their crops. Organic costs double. People won't be able to afford that any more.

For awhile, some companies may do well. Oil companies. Manufacturers of hybrid vehicles, like Toyota. Bicycle manufacturers. Solar panel and wind turbine manufacturers. Nuclear engineers. Coal miners.

But I think it will be temporary. The economy will go into recession, and people won't be able to afford to pay for that stuff. Ronald Reagan used to say, "A rising tide lifts all boats." The reverse is also true: when the tide is falling, we all go down.

[some_guy282]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DomusAlbion', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Berkeley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', '
')8. land rentals for people who need a place to grow their food

[MicroHydro]

In New Zealand, the dairy industry already has "share milkers", so land rental never went away. It is just going to grow big time. Of course, collecting rent of any sort requires a credible threat of force.

So hired goons, in government uniform or private, (aka security) will be a growth industry.

[DomusAlbion]

Several groups of people in the USA will come out OK in a post peak world.

The Amish in the East and the Mormons of Utah and Southern Idaho. They both have a long tradition of self sufficiency, cooperative effort and social welfare.

[katkinkate]

Funeral homes
plant nurseries
brewers/distilliers
entertainment venues, esp. dance and music venues, movie theatres (people will always want ways to escape)

[Leanan]

Strong community ties will help, to a point, but no one is truly self-sufficient these days. The Amish may not own tractors, but they borrow and rent them. They use kerosene. They use modern doctors and hospitals, chemical fertilizers, etc. They are part of our economic system.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

You guys are all so negative. Renting land could be a viable alterntive to older people who have money but can't do the work. the rent would be collected in food instead of money.

If they aren't militant jerks there is no reason they would need hired goons. It could be a new kind of community. For a single parent with school aged kids they could also help with watching out for the kids while the parent in out in the field doing whatever.

if the set up is beneficial to all why would anyone buck the system? (unless there were a greedy elitest involved)

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 't')he rent would be collected in food instead of money.

[khebab]

15. local mafia leaders with big guns (Hells angels, etc.)

why: rise in criminality and poverty, law enforcement overwhelmed

[Pops]

Just a couple of comments.

Feudalism consisting of forced tribute, military service and the like are easily seen in today’s taxes, military draft, huge mortgage obligations and the increasing use of eminent domain for private gain.

The fact is a majority of today’s farmers in the US already rent a sizeable portion of their land in return for fixed monetary compensation – basically sharecropping without the benefit of protection from poor harvests.

Some contracts made between producers and processors, dairymen for example, may even penalize the producer by paying less per unit for the ENTIRE production if his output is below a certain level.

As Micro said, there are programs here in the US as well to help young dairymen “rent” their way into a dairy, not a bad thing except it indicates how hard it is to afford the start-up costs – especially land.


The Amish do use many modern products – including petroleum, electricity – albeit battery-powered and many in this area simply hire “English” drivers to take them to the supermarket. Unfortunately they also create animosity among their “English” neighbors by refusing to pay many taxes or purchasing locally – at least that is the impression I’ve received. This could be a problem for them down the road.



As for “organic” or any type of lower input, local farming, the advantage will be in the lower input and transportation costs. The increased cost today is in the increased labor and lower production volume as well as the perceived value premium. When modern farms are forced to either pay more for inputs or use less – thereby reducing yields, and cheap transportation is eliminated - erasing the low labor-cost advantage of imports, the price of “regular” food will rise to meet and eventually exceed organic IMO.

[Leanan]

I don't think organic can really be separated from regular farming. They still use the transportation system. (I see organic vegetables from California here on the east coast.) They still need fertilizer. Though they use "natural" fertlizers like manure, its price will go up as chemical fertilizers become more scarce and expensive. Organic farmers also use pesticides. Not synthetic oil-based ones, but ones from "natural" sources (often plants). Those will be more expensive to manufacture, and if they are cheaper than oil-based, conventional farmers will start using them, driving up the price.

[Pops]

True enough Leanan, “Organic” farming is a business model just like any other – it capitalizes on perception just as “free range” chickens only need access to natural light and be uncaged even though mostly they still have access to basically the same square footage of “range” as a caged bird.

I’m thinking more of local hoe and stoop farms as opposed to a large farm skirting along the edges of the certifying organization and shipping through the same channels as ‘regular’ farms – many times both in the same farm operation.

I should have said small and local.

[Leanan]

Yes, I think "family farms" will do well. In fact, a lot of "hobby farms" may become their owners' livelihood.