[scas]

With regard to Nassim Talebs book, "The Black Swan", I would highly recommend it. Likely one of the best books I have read in my life, and spurred me to action of my beliefs.

As far as I know, is it the only book on robustness and how to protect oneself from unforseen, unpredictable events. In fact, it is possible to profit from such events that others don't see.

For example - if you knew the 911 events were happening, you would have profited handsomely by not being in the towers that day.

I really like his turkey example and bank examples.

"A Turkey is fed for a 1000 days—every days confirms to its statistical department that the human race cares about its welfare "with increased statistical significance". On the 1001st day, the turkey has a surprise."

"The graph above shows the fate of close to 1000 financial institutions (includes busts such as FNMA, Bear Stearns, Northern Rock, Lehman Brothers, etc.). The banking system (betting AGAINST rare events) just lost > 1 Trillion dollars (so far) on a single error, more than was ever earned in the history of banking. Yet bankers kept their previous bonuses and it looks like citizens have to foot the bills. And one Professor Ben Bernanke pronounced right before the blowup that we live in an era of stability and "great moderation" (he is now piloting a plane and we all are passengers on it)." (i didnt attach the graphs)

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'I')MO, there is more than enough time to prepare--for those in the US.
<<snip>>

[vtsnowedin]

Well I think we can see that unlike some have predicted the "What we are preparing for?" is not going to be sharply defined or universal. We are not going to turn the news on some day and find the media talking heads have got peak oil as "The breaking news" and a presser at the White House coming in just a few minutes. Instead we will see more and more events that have been caused by peak oil reacted to as if they are separate and one time events and the solutions to them that are put in place maybe far from appropriate because they do not acknowledge the effect of declining oil supply and assume a possible return to normal once this crisis has passed.
Bubbles bursting. financial collapses, wars, famines, erratic weather, and hyper inflation will all take there turn on center stage.
Imagine instead of a hard date for the start of post peak world what we get is a doubling of gas prices on average every two years. $6 in '12 , $12 in '14 and $24 in 2016. I would say that that is quite plausible while some would call that optimistic and of course the cornies will poo poo it and bet on $3 gas or less forever.
Given that price/ time line when do you park the hummer, when do you move from the burbs either into town or out to the doomstead, when do you lose your job, and when does your last government check clear the bank?
To me 2016 is looking like a very bad year with more to follow.

[vision-master]

Next Monday may be the test..... dec-20th-solar-storm-big-power-outages-t60369.html

[patience]

vtsnowedin,

Yeah, I'm seeing a slow grind down, somewhat steeper now, with a bump here and there. The next bump I see is the dollar going down, and taking a lot of things with it in the US. Maybe a couple years for that to happen, give or take. At least, I think we will see a generally recognized significant devaluation that soon. John Williams at Shadowstats is saying much sooner for that. http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/j ... s_12102010
Quote:
"When our creditors start offloading US Treasuries and stop buying new debt issues, the game is over. John Williams confirms this view and provides some more insights as to what you should be looking for as telltale signs that hyperinflation is upon us:

This is not good news. Weakness in the dollar is what will kill the system, it’s what will trigger the early signs of hyperinflation. Which, as you mentioned, could be as early as the next six to nine months. Down the road that remains to be seen as to the timing.

Watch the dollar. Watch for panic there. If it gets out of control you’ll see massive dumping of dollars. The Fed will be intervening even more than it does now. People will be turning dollars over as quickly as they can - they’re not going to want to hold them. Prices will sky rocket. We’re going to see this in the next couple months starting with gasoline and food prices."

Others see it taking longer.

I think it is generally agreed that the global depression is masking the effects of PO to the average person, while some of us here see it as the cause of the depression. Personally, I think PO was the trigger for Fiat Money collapse, although maybe Fiat Money has "hit the wall" of credit saturation all by itself? Not sure, but all that really counts for me is the results, which means my $$ buy less.

I expect commodities of all kinds to go up from here, relative to fiat money. This guy describes what has happened the best I have seen yet:
http://outerdnn.outer.jhuapl.edu/rethin ... Video.aspx
He does complex systems analysis, and says the dollar will devalue relative to gold to something like $5K/oz. That is 3.57 to 1, compared to present $1400 gold. Doesn't say when, but it seems like his thinking is it is not far off. Yes, he is a DULL speaker, but he has a lot to say and it is important.

I think that could happen rather suddenly, if we get a US Treasury bond dump by Japan (in dire straights for money) or China (hates our guts and faces our exported inflation), or a general repudiation of the dollar triggered by more "Quantitative Easing", the euphemism for printing dollars to finance the govt. deficit spending. Watch the bond market. It is already showing signs of interest rates increasing. A bit more of that, and the US Treasury is history, having about the shortest-term govt debt rollover term in the world now of something between 4 and 5 years to refinance ALL of it.

In these days of light speed communication, the world banking system could lock up in a matter of hours. It came very close to that in September of 2008, and nothing has been fixed. So, I would say--any minute now--or up to a couple years.

[rangerone314]

Cattails will provide the tipping point in me having enough calories and some food security. They thrive in moisture, but can survive droughts and climate change.

They have large starchy tubers that produce much more calories per square foot cultivated than potatoes.

[PrestonSturges]

The Automatic Earth was pooh-poohing hyperinflation, which is always overhyped by the gold bugs.

Their point was that if the dollar starts to tank, the rest of the world is not going to feel secure parking their money in Latvia or someplace. As the turmoil spread a lot of the worlds cash would rush right back to the dollar, which would get a huge dead cat bounce. Meanwhile the world huddles to hash out a solution.

[Ibon]

Back in the heady days when we first shared End of Suburbia with our friends we recognized the fragility of the status quo and there was an excitement around being a pioneer in seeing the writing on the wall.

Fast forward 5 -10 years to the present and how things have changed. There is no longer that early self confidence that one feels when being ahead of the curve.

I see the fractures and weaknesses and feel vulnerable. I find myself less sure about how things will unfold. I see myself more sharing the same fate as those we called the sheeples than a well prepared visionary.

Whether its bullets or finding community with your neighbors preparation has become more a psychological coping mechanism than any real substantive strategy toward mitigation. We are all deeply dependent on this fossil fuel age and perceived lifeboats have become largely illusionary.

Here is my advice at the close of 2010.

Do all those preparation things like getting out of debt and learning to can tomatoes. BUT equally important, learn to let go of all your perceived notions and surrender to the chaos. You may very well lose everything.

[patience]

PrestonSturges said:
"...if the dollar starts to tank, the rest of the world is not going to feel secure parking their money in Latvia or someplace. As the turmoil spread a lot of the worlds cash would rush right back to the dollar, which would get a huge dead cat bounce."

True. I think that has been happening for some months now. I think that otherwise, the dollar index would have dropped dramatically. And we could see a couple more bounces before the dollar really tanks, but tank it will, and in summary fashion. Presently the Euro troubles are taking center stage, to the benefit of the dollar, and that isn't over yet.

John Williams, of Shadowstats, who publishes economic statistics the way the used to be, is predicting hyperinflationary collapse in the US. He is interviewed here by Business News Network:
http://watch.bnn.ca/squeezeplay/dece...10/#clip386602

From the interview:
To quote Williamss, who actually keeps track of the US economy as if it were a GAAP audited corporation: "The annual deficit is running $4-5 trillion a year, that includes the Y/Y change in the NPV of unfunded liabilities... There is no political will to deal with this." The catalyst is well-known: "When you see panic selling of the US dollar, that's when you have to be really careful. But what's already been done with the dollar has spiked oil prices, and other commodity prices."

There you have the takeway--it all unwinds beginning with a collapse of the dollar. (Williams thinks it could be anywhere from a few months to a few years ahead.) I would add that the US Treasury bond rates could be a viable precursor to that, and they are edging upward now. I watch both the US Dollar index, and the bond market. Commodity prices are another "tell", although they are subject to speculators trying to "frontrun" the trends, and can give false early signals, like the little boy who repeatedly cried wolf. I guess I don't want to take the chance that commodity prices aren't a good indicator, since when they ARE, it is too late to hedge your bet. I prefer to be early.

The video isn't very long, and it is meaty. Williams advises stocking up on your normal consumables, and says the inflationary hit will come to food and fuel first.

I watched the long video I linked in the previous post, and to me it was compelling. Wish I could have seen this guy 3 years ago!!!! His presentation is the best I have ever seen. He explains clearly and concisely (though it may not seem like he is concise--trust me--I spent years having to nitpick this stuff out of all the misinformation around).

From what I can remember off the cuff, I got these takeaways:

-China is in far worse shape than the US, and can expect civil disorder whatever they do.
-The US can never pay its' debts, so they WILL be repudiated in SOME fashion. The choices for that are default which ruins our ability for foreign trade (oil, etc.), heavy taxation and austerity that guarantees destroying the economy, OR, devaluation of the dollar. He thinks it will be devaluation or, that with some combination of the others.
-The US has done this before: in the 1930's by confiscating and revaluing gold for stimulus during the Depression, and again in the 1970's by going off the gold standard to pay for Vietnam and the War on Poverty. Each of those devaluations was on the order of 50%, IIRC. I lived through the last one, and was glad that we bought a small farm in 1978 for $24,000. We sold it 10 years later for $40,000 which was a "fire sale" price at the time.
-When all currencies are devaluing, the only way to get an edge is to devalue against gold (= commodities, right?) (My thinking is that commodities will rise along with the price of gold. They are doing it now.)
-He puts that future price of gold at something like $5000 an ounce to make the US debt situation balance with money supply required to make this work.

If he is right, and I have no reason to think he is not, then we are looking at a devaluation from present levels (gold around $1400) by a factor of $5000 divided by $1400 = 3.57 to 1. If that be true, it sounds to me like we are in for price increases by that factor, no? Uh, that means gasoline at $10.32, milk about the same, and a box of Cheerios at close to $12.

God help us.

Please, somebody tell me this is not what he said. If this is correct, then 3rd world, here we come.

I had come to this sort of conclusion from what I read elsewhere, but the guesses I had seen were on the order of cutting the dollar by half, not almost divide by 4. Argentina had a 3 to 1 devaluation in a week or so, and it was chaos for years after that. (2003?)

[patience]

Ibon said:
"Do all those preparation things like getting out of debt and learning to can tomatoes. BUT equally important, learn to let go of all your perceived notions and surrender to the chaos. You may very well lose everything."

Exactly. Remain flexible in our thinking. There will come a time when planning is out the window and all we can do is react. I hate it, but there it is. The more options we afford ourselves now, the better chance we have later.

The most difficult thing I see at the moment is the gauntlet of first inflation (to use up all our cash) and then deflation, and then inflation again in cycles. This has been going on since the Federal Reserve started in 1913, but the swings are getting wilder and more dangerous.

Lose everything? Been there, done that. Don't plan to go there if I can help it.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hether its bullets or finding community with your neighbors preparation has become more a psychological coping mechanism than any real substantive strategy toward mitigation. We are all deeply dependent on this fossil fuel age and perceived lifeboats have become largely illusionary.

Here is my advice at the close of 2010.

Do all those preparation things like getting out of debt and learning to can tomatoes. BUT equally important, learn to let go of all your perceived notions and surrender to the chaos. You may very well lose everything.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ose everything? Been there, done that. Don't plan to go there if I can help it.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', '
')If he is right, and I have no reason to think he is not, then we are looking at a devaluation from present levels (gold around $1400) by a factor of $5000 divided by $1400 = 3.57 to 1. If that be true, it sounds to me like we are in for price increases by that factor, no? Uh, that means gasoline at $10.32, milk about the same, and a box of Cheerios at close to $12.

God help us.

Please, somebody tell me this is not what he said. If this is correct, then 3rd world, here we come.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The poor are so exhausted just trying to make ends meet that reform will never come from the vast majority of underprivileged. And the elite, who have the resources and time available to reform are not interested because they are the ones most benefiting from the inequality of wealth distribution.

[patience]

Ibon,

Yes, we have the 3rd world govt. deal all set up. As I see it, they just aren't quite finished looting the country yet, so there is more left for the unwashed masses. Not for long, though, as the trend is going today. Oh BTW, I'm a he. Not that it matters to the discussion. I have 2 daughters and a wife, though, who have impressed their way of thinking on me, so that undoubtedly shows....

vision-master,

I didn't mean I'm clinging to life. I'm too old for that to be an issue. What I meant was, I despise thieves.
I agree about the BOB thing. I ain't going anywhere, unless it be to our DD's place when wife and I get too old to live alone. Meanwhile, in the words of a friend of mine, whatever happens, happens here. I keep a "get-home bag" in the truck, because it makes sense out here in the sticks. Had to walk home a time or two because of icy roads, trees down, etc.. But home is where it's at for me. When my time comes to die, I hope it is among family and friends.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', ' ')Oh BTW, I'm a he. Not that it matters to the discussion. I have 2 daughters and a wife, though, who have impressed their way of thinking on me, so that undoubtedly shows....

[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'H')e puts that future price of gold at something like $5000 an ounce to make the US debt situation balance with money supply required to make this work.

If he is right, and I have no reason to think he is not, then we are looking at a devaluation from present levels (gold around $1400) by a factor of $5000 divided by $1400 = 3.57 to 1. If that be true, it sounds to me like we are in for price increases by that factor, no?

[Newfie]

As to the third world situation, we have had a third world within the US for many decades. One needs only to take a drive through some of the poorer districts of any major city to see that. About 20 years ago I was working in one of these neighborhoods on a big transit renewal project as PM. As PM i stayed in my hidy hole and didn't go out much, Paper Manager. The foremen were having lunch one day when a couple of local tuffs walked in with knifes and demanded money. The foreman all drew their sidearms and put them on the table, the tuffs took off. Some of the guys had a thing going to see what the could negotiate a girl down to, 27-cents was the winner. I have seen adolescent girls prostituting themselves on a back street of Camden and NPR recently related the price as $20. HS graduation rate in Phily is below 50%. That is overall, not just black males. I can't imagine what it is among black males. The census just reported that the poorer neighborhoods keep getting poorer, at a steep rate. Life is cheap in those neighborhoods.

So, in those neighborhoods, the time to prepare is past, they are living our hell hole. Take a visit to see what it is like.

My point is that there is another way of looking at the situation. For some Armageddon is here, it is like a cancer that is spreading throughout. The cancerous greed will not stop until the whole body is consumed.

New Year's 1983 (or 84) I was assigned to patrol our assets in some of these neighborhoods. At midnight folks came outside to celebrate the event. Fireworks, hooting and hollering, a few gun shots. On one house, one dilapidated run down tiny brick workers house, on the stoop stood a family: Mom, Dad, two little girls. Take a picture and crop it sufficiently tight and you could not have distinguished them from any other happy family in the country. Taken in context, your heart bleeds.

Cheers

[Newfie]

As to the James Rickards video, I watched the whole thing. I don't know how right or how wrong he is, but to some extent his technical message is irrelevant.

The take away is that at least some of the military are as worried (at least) as we are. That they are making plans on how to handle a collapse is worrisome. At some point this becomes a self fulfilling prophesy, especially since one will have to act quickly to be effective. But once one acts then the gig is up and the dollar will surly collapse.

On the other hand, that is their job. They had plans on how to invade Canada until the 1980's (and likely still do.)

Troubling.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 't')hey are living our hell hole. Take a visit to see what it is like.
Cheers