[Newfie]

Back in the late '70's there was a government program to put painted plywood over the windows of decaying houses. The plywood was painted with curtains and plants and such so that if you looked quickly it would look like a normal neighborhood. They didn't want to disturb the commuters on their way to work.

For real, no joke, I remember seeing them in several places.

[jmnemonic]

I've built a garden along two sides of the house, and all over the (small) back yard. I've planted some blueberries and raspberries and apple trees and gonna drop in a cherry tree and a pecan tree in the spring. I put a shade tree on the sunniest side of the house for when there's no AC later. The woman doesn't want to move, and I bow to her will on that, though I think it's a mistake - we're in St. Louis, edge of the city, 50 feet from the county.

In February I am beginning to build my doomstead UNDER the house. We'd planned to get the basement finished, had about fifteen grand set aside for that in 2008 when everything crashed. We held off to see how things would shake out. Now instead of hiring someone to do the work, I'm going to finish the basement myself, but completely differently than originally planned. I'm going to chop it in two with a steel-reinforced cement-and-cinderblock wall with a thick steel door (I'll pay someone to put the door in, can't do that myself). The door itself will be hidden behind a bookcase that can be locked to the wall from behind, and will appear bolted to the wall (though it won't be). Then I'm going to put in a wood stove, a battery bank of 25-year forklift batteries, a composting toilet, and 12 years worth of food for two (more if I can and have time), plus some solar panels, inverter, sink, small shower area, etc. On the non-doomstead side of the basement I'm going to store a bunch of lumber, cement, cinderblocks and the like, for future use.

Then if things start looking bad, I can put spiked boards on every window and door, splatter them with fake blood, and put a hostile-looking 'NO TRESSPASSING!' sign displayed prominently. If things look REALLY bad then I will bring the house down, literally. (The woman looked at me in horror when I told her I might need to do that. Heh.) The doomstead below will survive the house coming down. It'll be about 400 square feet, as big as a large RV, with many creature comforts. The goal would be to stay invisible as best as possible living under a pile of rubble until things get quieter in the world, maybe 2-5 years, then scuttle out like rats and see if there's any community out there for us to join.

Pretty crazy plan, I know! But the woman doesn't want to move. And I don't want to die. And she's not very mobile. Soooo...if that means we die, well, we'll die together. This is for sure: I won't go quietly into the night.

[Revi]

I think we have a couple of years before things get really bad. They chart of oil production shows it declining over 5% a year starting in 2013. I don't think the economy will hold out that long. I think it's going to tank next year, maybe the year after. There is no way we can use as much oil as we're using presently in the US. Car culture has to go down. And it will.

I was thinking of making some simple bulletproof walls to install in case things get dicey. All you need is 6 inches of 1/2 inch pea gravel between plywood panels with metal studs to stop most bullets. I think it's going to be a neighborhood protection thing anyway. We know the neighbors and we may be able to work together to keep this place at least reasonably well guarded.

It's tough to have to think this way, but maybe more dangerous if we don't.

[Newfie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jmnemonic', 'P')retty crazy plan, I know! But the woman doesn't want to move. And I don't want to die. And she's not very mobile. Soooo...if that means we die, well, we'll die together. This is for sure: I won't go quietly into the night.

[Revi]

I don't think it's unreasonable to get ready for some disruption. I have heard a lot of financial people talking about a hyperinflationary event in the next 6 to 9 months. I don't know about that, since most people seem to be broke, so how are they going to get hyperinflation going? It's not like there is a lot of cash around to get it going. I guess it could happen.

[rangerone314]

I think that it will start to get drastically more expensive to prepare for a doomstead by 2015...

I would guess a full on collapse into disorder in US is very possible between 2020 and 2030... and pretty much a certainly past 2030.

Maps of North America by 2040 will look a lot different, sort of like Eastern Europe and USSR after the Iron Curtain came down.

[Newfie]

I don't think we have that long. I am hearing more and more financial types talk about relatively imminent collapse. Like months to 2 years.

But this evening talking with a friend I got thinking; watch Mexico. Two years after Mexico goes the US will go. That fits the Bold Prediction model, no?

There used to be a Mexico collapse thread, maybe I'll try to find it.

Anyway, I see the Mexico government being attached by declining Cantrel on one side and drug lords on the other. If Mexico goes into anarchy then the US will likely be drug into yet another "police action" to stabalize the country. That will be expensive and will start to really dig into our own liberties. That might well take enough of the gloss of US for the someone to try to replace the dollar. Or, it might shake things up enough that the bankers loose faith again which starts the death spiral all over again.

[rangerone314]

I think that it would take longer for the US to go after Mexico. What will happen is US doing a police action or trying to close the border with military.

Then, to make a point, some Mexican terrorists (we think) go Bombay-style into a large American mall, firing AK47s and tossing grenades. The same bloody pictures and videos of dead moms and children in the mall posted on the mass media news outlets over and over again ad nauseum will have the American people clamoring to support to enact the new Police State legislation (which I am certain has already been written and just needs to be dusted off)

Then we will have scanning stations in malls, surveillance cameras everywhere, and probably random stops (not just for drunks anymore)

Isn't boiling a frog in a pot fun?

[Thralen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', 'I')sn't boiling a frog in a pot fun?

[Revi]

I think we have around 2 years. The next couple of years are going to be bad, but not as bad as the two after that. There comes a certain point when all your money and effort will go into just keeping thing afloat, and then it's harder to prepare. We plan on switching out our emergency food for example. We need to do this before it all gets too expensive. We'll get new batteries for the solar electric system now while we have the funds to do it. Now is the time to really prepare, because the time when it becomes impossible could come any time with job cuts, hyperinflation or you name it.

When you are in the middle of the storm it's too late to prepare. Better to do it on a sunny day before it hits, in my opinion. Don't worry, the storm is coming.

[Olaf]

We are slowly establishing ourselves at the new house on the 50 acres we bought a couple of years ago. Our primary move was to be able to be more self-sufficient. We can some, we garden, we've planted various berry bushes and trees (nut producers, pears, apples, plums). These will take time to develop. This plan works only if some semblance of order is maintained over a slow crash. I think it is unreasonable to assume you are going to withstand marauding hordes or anything of the sort on your own. It will be through maintained government authority or local cooperation that sh*t holds together.

I'm happier being rural than urban. Best way to out compete is to have fewer competitors.

[Revi]

I think the preparations have to be done now. There is no way we will know what's going on until it's too late. They will start to do some nasty things like load shedding when there isn't enough electricity. Gas and diesel will be hard to get eventually (if you can afford it) and business as usual will start to shut down. I don't think this will happen everywhere. For example I think here in Maine the state capital and the Portland area will be the last to be affected. The hinterlands will have problems way before them. Why drive way up into the boonies to sell gasoline when people are willing to pay for it much closer to the interstate? Small towns that are barely hanging on will lose their gas stations, and then it will be a 50 mile round trip to get gas and groceries. Will it make sense? You burn 2 of your gallons just getting there and back at 25 mpg. We had better be ready for a life without as much oil by the time that happens.

[Lore]

Aside from the usual preps... my three top ideas for getting ready now.

- Get a diesel vehicle - You can make substitutes, and diesel fuel will not degrade in storage as fast as gas (12 months or longer at an ambient of 20ºC). The older models are better and easier to work on.

- Buy a diesel generator - For the same reason as above, get parts along with it.

- Cap your water well with a stainless steel hand pump (Bison), or dig a new well if allowed so you can have one.

The above can all be done this week, depending on your financial circumstances and logistics.

[KingM]

We have somewhere between 20 and a 1000 years before we see a collapse worst case to best case scenario. I put the over under at 100 years.

[Revi]

I think you are right Lore. When it gets nasty they will ration gas and people with diesels may be allowed to get around, especially if they have something to do with agriculture. I would love to have a small efficient diesel. Mahindra is coming out with this little pickup some time next year:

http://jalopnik.com/5346873/mahindra-di ... d/gallery/

It's supposed to get 30 mpg and tow something like 5000 lbs with a 2.2 liter Diesel! It would be the ideal vehicle for getting stuff around when it gets nasty. You can even get an extra cab version and seat 5 people. I could see having a kind of a taxi with a trailer full of cargo.

[nobodypanic]

i wonder... has anyone around here ever played around with the idea that perhaps there is no way to prepare? i mean, really, there are oh so many variables involved any of which could make any preps utterly worthless or worse yet a liability.

i'd really be interested in seeing posts with that take. i might be able to pick-up on things that haven't crossed my mind and prep better (maybe to no avail but, hey, at least i'll feel like i have some control).

[Revi]

You may be right Nobody Panic. There may be no real way to prepare. The act of preparation helps us to focus on the problem, though. I know that when the ship goes down there may be no real benefit to preparation. It does keep us occupied and feeling like we're doing something.

I do it because there's a chance it may help us out.

They say in survival situations that you should keep trying. You never know what might work out. It also helps to focus the mind, so that nobody panics!

[Newfie]

It strikes me that the discussion is off focus because we have not agreed about what we are preparing for. It surely also depends upon where you live. I live in center city Philadelphia; my preps will be very different from someone living on a farm or in a town of 15,000.

Along those lines here are some thoughts from another forum that I thought were relevant and parallel my thinking very well.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t seems to me that to survive any SHTF scenario, a person needs to be ready to survive the three separate stages of such a scenario. And, this includes an immediate danger such as a nuclear, biological or alien attack or earthquake or volcano. Or, something a bit slower like a financial collapse, political shift, or global warming and very slow zombies.

All of these scenarios brings one thing: a shift in power from one form of government to the other. The trick is survivng the shifts in power.

The three stages of survival (as I see it) are as follows:

Immediate (Time Frame: 1-48 hours): In any dangerous and life-threatening scenario, one needs to immediately secure the safety of his/her person, family, and as mentioned in another thread, a nubile young breeding stock. Since this thread started by discussing a "bug-out boat", this scenario would mean to get from home to the boat as quickly and safely as possible and head for blue water. If you're a liveaboard, cheers!

Short-Term (Time Frame: 30-60 days): I figure that with any shift in power, the amount of time that most people will have to survive will be approximately 30-60 days. These are people without any food/water supply and must scavenge for food in the days after a disaster hits. This is by far the most critical time period. While this is happening on land, a person on a boat with their food supply could be sailing lazy circles a hundred miles offshore while eating mahi mahi and drinking desalinated water.

Long-Term (Time Frame 60+ days): No one can live on a boat forever or should unless it's a really, really big ship. This is a critical time as well because the boater needs to listen for radio message to gauge the political atmosphere. (e.g. Do I return to my marina where I was before or do I find a nice island in the Marquesas to repopulate the species).

[Newfie]

On yet another thread this following item was posted.

My reading of this is we have about 2 years to another bust cycle in the US, if things go well. I think others will read it differently, but that is my understanding.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he End of the Oil Age 2011 and beyond: a reality check

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

[rangerone314]

You know its funny that OPEC now says that the world can live with $100/bbl oil. I thought before it was $80/bbl (back when prices were approaching $80).

Ever get the impression that OPEC has very little room for expansion of production, and that they kept a great amount in reserve as a buffer (making it real hard to tell if a production peak is really a geologic production peak, or just them holding back)

I would say that the $ figure per bbl that OPEC says the world can handle will grow roughly ahead of the price at a given point in time. We will never see $90 million bbl per day. And this will include the day when the world really needs $120 million.

I really hope things hold together until at least 2023, which is when everything should be in place (as in off-the-grid, debt-free & with a nice stockpile of gold, silver, ammo, pepper, cocoa, salt, tools, nails etc)

I'm focusing much of my outdoors preps on building a privacy screen hedge, so that when preps accelerate, most of it will be out of sight. (out of sight, out of mind). I prefer hiding, and holed up like Switzerland and not display preps for all to see. Every fight avoided is a fight that is won. Got 39 thuja green giant trees planted the past 2 weekends.

I'm going to keep my ANNUAL crop area small for a few years (so far just have 7 20'x5' beds, may expand that to 14 in 2011) I figure I will experiment with what works, and scale up rapidly later, by which time my hedge should be filling in nicely.

Permaculture areas I have won't look like an actual attempt as major food production, and those take years to get going mostly, so I am also focusing on them.