[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'W')e also developed the Prudhoe Bay oil fields and the Brits and Norweigians developed the North Sea oil fields after the 1970s energy crises----they helped a bit too.

[bratticus]

Footage from Colin Campbell in 2002 and Richard Heinberg in 2003.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfIftQG8Wr0

[Novus]

Campbell and Heinberg were spot on with their predictions.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'C')ampbell and Heinberg were spot on with their predictions.

[Buggy]

Very good. Very timely as CNBC's headline tonight is oil supply drop is biggest in 8 years.

[americandream]

They actually believe that you can sustain a system based around high volumes of profit generating waste and extend it across the globe. We even have some on here who hold this absurd view.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'C')ampbell and Heinberg were spot on with their predictions.

[Novus]

I don't remember any $30 oil in 2008. If there was I would have bought some and tripled my money.

[careinke]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'I') don't remember any $30 oil in 2008. If there was I would have bought some and tripled my money.

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'C')ampbell and Heinberg were spot on with their predictions.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'C')ampbell and Heinberg were spot on with their predictions.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'C')ampbell and Heinberg were spot on with their predictions.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '
')Peak oil escalating cycles of recession implicitly require periods of recovery.

[vision-master]

Spell 'Devil' backwards............

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'S')pell 'Devil' backwards............

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'D')on't start selectively filtering the data to back up your belief system. Be willing to admit that the world has more moving parts than just oil prices.

[Homesteader]

Seeing how oil production is still on the plateau it isn't to hard to understand why economies have plateaued and not cratered, and oil and other commodity prices are only rising slowly albeit steadily.

Society around the world are certainly showing early signs of discontent ie: Ireland, UK, Greece, France, Hungary.

[thuja]

Yup- escalating cycles...that is the crux of it. IN the midst of an incredibly deep recession we have almost 90 $ barrel oil. Oil prices are predicted to rise to more than a 100 based on a supply crunch (Ie decine in world oil production). We have had an almost inperceptibly modest recovery (GDP is positive but unemployment and debt are tremendous.) What next?

I have beeen saying for a while that the ramifications of Peak Oil will likely be covered up by an economic meltdown due to debt and geopolitical problems (and eventually ecological breakdowns). People like xenophobe will blame inflation, currency problems, wars and housing crunches long before they would acknowledge oil depletion. But all of this other stuff covers up the essential factor in collapse. Not enough juice in the engine for it to go fast, and eventually not enough for it to go at all.

[jmnemonic]

Hah, yeah, I watch the news now with a whole new mind-set. I heard Obama and the CEOs talking about how 'robust growth' will help us pull out of the doldrums. Robust growth? That means an increase in production, mining, consumption, shipping - e.g. an increase in the use of fossil fuels. Which are in decline. As soon as the world gets ANY significant growth, boom, oil prices will spike and food (which is *ridiculously* reliant on fossil fuel) will spike in price as well. Actually, food is already spiking, because of climate change disturbances to production, but high oil prices will exacerbate things. Then, as more and more of the common man spends more and more of their income on energy and food, they will spend less and less on everything else (clothes, education, tools, home improvement, appliances, cars). Thus, there will be no need to employ so many people in those areas, so people will be fired and the economy will contract, again.

And this will happen over and over again. Each time we come out of a recession, the 'new normal' in unemployment will be higher than the last time. Eventually it will be so high - and food and energy prices so unaffordable - that there will be rationing, perhaps after runs on banks, grocery stores and gas stations. After that, at some point, riots and martial law. Some time after that the lights will go out and they will not come on again. The dial tone on your phone will be dead and there will be no 911 responders. No cellphones or internet. No grocery stores or gas stations. No food or energy unless you produce it yourself locally or know someone nearby who does (and who won't kill you for eyeballing their food and energy).

There is no technological solution to our dilemma here. Industrialized food production is the use of land to transform fossil fuels into food. As the fossil fuels run down, food will run out. Without industrialized farming, the planet can sustainably support perhaps 1-2 billion people. We've destroyed the viability of a huge amount of land with industrialized farming though, so perhaps less than 1 billion is all we can sustain now, globally. Solar power, wind, blah blah - none of them can replace fossil fuels for food production, and certainly not in the time we have remaining. My guess is our global civilization has a 50% chance of imploding by 2020, a 90% chance by 2030, and a 99%+ chance by 2040. Be prepared. If you wait until the lights go out to act then you are almost certainly going to die.

Also, I believe we are now so close to collapse that government can't even talk about these problems seriously. If Obama said how serious our problems are, the markets would crash instantly, worldwide, and *trigger* the collapse. Still, I think that subtly the Obamas are trying to prepare us. Notice what they've been pushing? Solar panels, insulation, backyard gardens. What would you like to have when things fall apart and there is no more electric grid or grocery stores or heating? Well, solar panels, insulation and a garden are at least a start. And of course, these things have merit on their own too, aside from helping survive after the crash.