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The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 30 Nov 2008, 05:08:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')Robert Hirsh knows all that, so perhaps you may consider listening to him.
I agree with your point here except that Mr. Hirsch is quite the senior who has a deeper cultural bias to keeping the status quo going that he has experienced in his generation. His point of view is "why rock the boat".

OK, you may also say that he is trying to ensure some additional years of environment resembling status quo, so he can die peacefully.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ounger visionaries who are not as invested in the status quo and more willing to confront and educate the masses on the behavioral and lifestyle changes required to mitigate peak oil may have a different point of view about the urgency to communicate the subject.

The problem is that I don't see younger visionaries of this kind, perhaps with the exception of peoples dismissed by mainstreem as tree huggers.
All what I see is a helpless mob duly replacing their older but still working mobile phones into new models for the reason that they are advertised, trendy and my friends already buying them.

Left wing "progressives" are certainly not helping here at all.
They are rather concerned about political correctness and are also promoting sustaining of entitlement culture (extensive social security, free medical care for whoever, all sort of rights and nanny state environment) for as long as we can and preferably ab infinitum.

Needless to say all that will still collapse regardless, but current attitudes are keeping those progressives neutered and preventing them from doing anything useful until is well too late.

I would even go further with my assertions here and say that
left wing progressives are considering current system to be the best which humanity can possibly have, so they are actually fighting to preserve it and expand it further regardless of consequences.
As a result they are becoming to be reactionaries
.

Yet another paradox (reactionary progressives). :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')THe current younger generation is going to move into the prime consumption years (25-50) having already had a sense of the limitations due to feedback events. Add a little suffering due to some hard knocking consequences and this can provide the catalyst to drastically reduce consumption.

IMO nothing short of full blown collapse will change attitudes of younger generation.
And if they see limitations they will try to hover around these limits for as long as they possibly can.
Something aka your Kudzu Ape scenario.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he economic depression we are all currently moaning about is actually another catalyst that is shifting cultural values toward frugality. Have we perhaps underestimated how powerful an influence this may have on our shifting cultural values when more and more people connect the dots between financial instability and resource depletion??

My opinion is that authorities will do all what they can to convince peoples that problems are only financial in nature.
It will take few rounds of going into ceiling before peoples begin to understand that these are a very foundations of capitalism, what is actually failing.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e should try to contain that paradox that really bad things are actually really good things if they move us more rapidly as a species toward sustainability. As individials we are just biased about not wanting to die, thats all.

For example I think that actual collapse of current paradigm would be a good thing even if a lot of suffering would be temporary incurred.
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Re: The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sun 21 Nov 2010, 17:44:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')I requested his presence here in an a serious debate. Waiting Shorty :twisted:


I'm not short you parrot. And I doubt you would know the difference between a serious debate and a hole in your head, but I'm a patient kinda guy, so I'll take a stab at your religious beliefs.

My assertion is as follows. Hirsch used the natural gas cliff in America as an analog/basis for predicting a more general, and global in nature, decline in available resources. We all know that instead of a natural gas cliff we got a natural gas glut, and Hirsch couldn't see this because he is ignorant of the basics involved in any resource debate, which is to say, geology.

Now...spout off some "polly wanna cracker" dogma you parrot...I dare you. 8)
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Re: The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sun 21 Nov 2010, 17:53:19

A note on the Hirsch report for those who fall for its representation as a US government report, versus a guy who has been hoping for, and predicting, energy crisis since at least 1987. The following is the disclaimer, just so that everyone understands that the government isn't required to pay attention or be bound by this drivel even if the DOE paid for it under contract. The DOE pays for everything under contract, this was just another one, and obviously they had no use for this thing either.

Page 2 of the 2005 DOE Hirsch report.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the
United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any
agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or
implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy,
completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process
disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.
Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by
trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily
constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United
States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors
expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States
Government or any agency thereof.


Maybe the government is smarter than they look, knowing better than to accept at face value whatever some advocate with a contract comes up with.
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Re: Hirsch tells us to shut up about peak oil

Unread postby mos6507 » Sun 21 Nov 2010, 17:57:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '
')I would even go further with my assertions here and say that
left wing progressives are considering current system to be the best which humanity can possibly have, so they are actually fighting to preserve it and expand it further regardless of consequences.
As a result they are becoming to be reactionaries
.


Not quite.

Liberals think BAU can be perfected.

Conservatives don't think BAU even needs to be reformed, if anything, roll back to the 1950s.

So I wouldn't beat up on liberals to a greater extent than conservatives. They are the lesser of two evils. I'll take bright green over brown-tech anyway.

There ain't anyone on the stage pushing our agenda, so it's hard to expect anything more.
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Re: The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sun 21 Nov 2010, 19:00:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'H')istorically natural gas remains expensive--historic average was 2 tcf.


TCF is a unit of measure, not of price.

Certainly Hirsch isn't this incompetent, the guy may know nothing about geology but I'm betting he knows the difference between $$ and volume.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')The chart (This chart does not fit, is cut, but continues to the right) shows a current spike, and especially violent recent oscillations up to 2010, a direct consequence of decline of conventional natural gas and recent shale-gas market bubble and collapse (to see chart right-click to view it)
Image


Charts using nominal prices are designed to nearly always show increasing prices because of inflation. Hirsch in his report, for example in Figure 2-A p.72 of his report shows both so as to not mislead. As you are.

Here is the EIA sheet for wellhead gas prices since forever.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/txt/stb0607.xls

Last data available for 2009.

Between 1981 and 1985 gas prices were higher than 2009. Yearend 2009 prices are lower than since 2002, reflecting the shale gas glut which was obvious in 2005 if you knew something about geology, which Hirsch apparently doesn't. Apparently he can't count rigs either, because in 2005 they were everywhere near Fort Worth. It should be noted that yearened 2010 natural gas prices aren't expected to be any better than 2009, which means its two years of low gas prices because of the shale gas glut.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Hirsch Report uses the example of natural gas to support a simple thesis. From the section on natural gas:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hirsch Report', 'A') dramatic example of the risks of over-reliance on geological resource projections is the experience with North American natural gas.
It is the shale-gas price occillations that the Hirsch Report discusses. And it is peak-oil price oscillations that have caused this current economic crisis. (For this see Hamilton, James)


Note: "over reliance on geological resource projections". Hirsch claims those resource estimates are TOO HIGH. And what happened, which he should have seen? Turns out, THEY WERE TOO LOW, and worse yet, the industry was converting them to reserves all around him....a fact he ignored.

Under the title "Learning from the Natural Gas Experience"

"Part of the attractiveness of natural gas was resource estimates for the U.S. and
Canada that promised growing supply at reasonable prices for the foreseeable
future. That optimism turns out to have been misplaced, and the U.S. is now
experiencing supply constraints and high natural gas prices."

And what happened after he wrote this report? Those natural resource estimates were true, people drilled them, and within a short period of time after this report we have low natural gas prices.

OOPS

Think Hirsch wants to think about the geology in this one before he shoots off his mouth next time?

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2009/3028/
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Re: The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

Unread postby diemos » Sun 21 Nov 2010, 19:19:09

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2A.htm

Prices are volatile and not as useful as consumption for understanding trends.

A glut is more production than demand. This can come from an increase in production, a decrease in demand or some combination of both. Looking at the consumption curve indicates that the current "glut" is from decreased demand not an increase in production.
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Re: The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

Unread postby diemos » Sun 21 Nov 2010, 19:26:46

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010us3m.htm

You can also see that the price of residential gas doubled from 2000 to 2005 and has been relatively constant from 2005 to 2010
Last edited by diemos on Sun 21 Nov 2010, 19:41:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

Unread postby diemos » Sun 21 Nov 2010, 19:29:46

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9190us3m.htm

Or if you prefer the wellhead price we still see a price increase starting at 2000 with the current price double that price even if greatly reduced from the previous price spikes.
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Re: The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sun 21 Nov 2010, 20:40:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', '[')url]http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2A.htm[/url]

Prices are volatile and not as useful as consumption for understanding trends.


Depends on the trend you are trying to quantify. For example, Hubbert used historical flowrates to make a geologic estimate. Statistically, it doesn't work (Cavallo, 2004). But it still gets flogged for how predictive the technique is because, lets face it, belief in it is more faith based than science based.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diesmos', '
')A glut is more production than demand. This can come from an increase in production, a decrease in demand or some combination of both. Looking at the consumption curve indicates that the current "glut" is from decreased demand not an increase in production.


Could be. Obviously the parrot can't think this deep into a problem, but you are spot on. Car manufacturers were shuttering entire plants in the summer of 09, and natural gas fired electricity wasn't needed either as other businesses shuttered themselves. But a key point is that during this time the US was able to repeak its natural gas production, relying on unconventionals, and this was obvious to anyone who count rigs during 2005, and Hirsch missed it by an astronomical unit. Because he didn't stop for a second to understand how fast resource to reserve conversion could take place, the agenda he was hewing to meant he had to avoid the topic.
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Re: The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sun 21 Nov 2010, 20:44:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('diemos', '[')url]http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010us3m.htm[/url]

You can also see that the price of residential gas doubled from 2000 to 2005 and has been relatively constant from 2005 to 2010


Residential gas prices aren't wellhead prices, which is what I referenced. Residential prices allow idiot politicians and thieving utilities in the door, "Mr regulator! I need more money! The worthless unions are demanding a raise, and heaven forbid we try and be competitive with our peers, we need our 15% profit margin!". Producers are forced to take the smaller price by the pipeline companies operating on the spot market (unless they hedge or do futures contracts) whereas the transportation and distribution companies are allowed to screw the cash cow consumer for all they are worth.
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Re: The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

Unread postby Xenophobe » Sun 21 Nov 2010, 23:28:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'C')rap wellhead prices are historically high.


Well...except for all the HIGHER ones sprinkled across the last couple of decades. That < and > sign thing, you really have to get back to the 3rd grade there p.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Shale gas did nothing to mitigate historical prices increases. The single one-time decline in 2009 is a consequence of recession.


Copycat! YOU sure couldn't suggest that one first, while you were busy thinking that $$ was measured in TCF. The life of a parrot...always waiting for the real thought to come along before they can chime in on the shirttails of another.

But you are wrong of course, the recession turned around better than a year ago, and 2010 overall wellhead prices won't be much better than 2009. Bank on it parrot. Start harping on that one from the perch in your mental cage and maybe you'll be right about something, come Jan/2011.

But do stick to what you parrot from your betters, otherwise that TCF and $$ thing could trip you up in public again. :lol:
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Re: The Robert L Hirsch Thread (merged)

Unread postby Xenophobe » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 00:39:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'C')arvallo has been discredited time and again on this and other forums. He is a joke


Cavallo did his work in Natural Resources Research, so certainly anything the Prince of Parroting might venture on the topic is meaningless.

Please cite any particular peer reviewed journal which refutes the reference I've cited. I can round up the exact footnote if you'd like. yet another ad hom deleted.
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