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THE Bond Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 22:27:06

Love Glenn? Hate Glenn?

WHO CARES?

Someone tell me the downside of keeping a month of food in your home in case of emergencies? I lost over half of my income two years ago and having food on my shelves helped immensely in being able to pay my bills and stay financially solvent from June 2008 to October 2010. It was good enough to let me eat from my emergency month one day a week and save that much in groceries. That food ran out last month, but my circumstances have changed and I am past the bottleneck.

I want to replace that cushion as soon as I can, hopefully over the next few months I will manage to do so.

So again I ask, what is the downside to stocking your cupboard? Growing up we always had 4 to 6 months of food because we raised our own and canned or froze food as it matured.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 07 Nov 2010, 23:10:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deMolay', 'O')h yes yes. Keep drinking the Obama Koolaid. Is America better off with 2 years of Obamanomics? Are you better off. Will printing money bring wealth and jobs to America. The whole rest of the world is very worried about the debt crisis in Obama's America. He is increasingly seen as a buffoon. All talk and no substance. Some are saying the real debt for his year 2009 is 4 Trillion. I think there will be a big new crisis for Obama and his policies. Now that the elections are over and he and the Democrats have been repudiated by the voters, the Chicago scandals will surface again along with all the rest of his misdeeds. He is a warmonger and people will begin to see he is worse than BUSH. As the bills pile on and he keeps printing like Robert Mugabe inflation will hit hard. Soon oil will break $100/barrel again and all things dependant on oil will soar through the roof. The Democrats and |Obama will offer you food stamps and lineups.


Much of the deficit actually came from war and Bush-era tax cuts:

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of ... its-2010-6

In terms of the trade deficit, that began during the 1970s and grew worse during Reagan's administration.

And regarding fears of over-taxation:

http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/18/tea-pa ... tlett.html

Thus, what we have is a U.S. economy that made up for peak oil during the early '70s by exporting dollars to buy more oil, then using the same dollars for government, corporations, and citizens to play casino capitalism. All presidents from the late '60s onwards are alike, together with citizens who, like corporations, wanted to move from Main Street to Wall Street in order to live the "American dream" and plan for early retirement.

The results include credit bubbles bursting. After that comes a resource crunch.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby zoidberg » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 00:12:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'S')ummary:
Basically he says that an insider who he can't name told him that a catastrophic event, which could be anything from failure to raise the debt limit to China not buying US bonds (though I thought they already stopped and are net seller now) would trigger a US bond crisis. This would send yields through the roof, but Europe and the rest of the world would respond by raising their bond rates and so within 13 days the whole world would have a catastrophic meltdown.

Yea that part of it is off. The Fed would indeed intervene to buy any bonds dumped or not purchased. And indeed China not *only* stopped buying they've sold off 68.1 billion dollard worth of Federal reserve treasuries from Aug 2009 to Aug 2010. Us Gov't Info. Coincidentally Canadian holdings rose 73.2 billion dollars in the same period. UK holdings EXPLODED 344.1 billion, gradupling their holdings. No, I dont know what these numbers means, where the UK found 300 billion to buy us treasury debt, whether the fed gave 'em funny money, whether it was extorted, I dont know. However whatever that game was, its now over, and the Fed is simply stepping in directly, dropping all pretenses and thats what's got everyone jumping around. China only got a fraction of its holdings out relatively safely and now the fed is saying SO sorry but those dollars just arent what they used to be...That Bill Gross guy says the bond market is over. No one is buying and you can sell any amount any time. They will simply print the dollars, worth unpredicatble amounts in other countries, and continually less in America until all foreign debt is retired. Its a bankruptcy sale. Blaming the Chinese will be easy because those guys will probably figure well fuck it then give me everything we want right now, dump the lot and it WILL look like the Chinese started it. Also the longer they wait the less of America they can buy as an ever increasing share of the debt will belong to money printing bank cartel. And owing that debt means owning America, lock stock and barrel.

And all those dollars rolling in for any resource, land or politicians for sale will drive the price out of reach for the local citizenry. Thats why Beck is sounding the alarm, albeit for outdated reasons. It should alarm everyone in the Anglo-American Empire...I'm sure the Canadian dollar is tied to this pig of currency south of the border. It can barely breach parity before being pushed back down.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '
')Regarding Beck.. he might have some screws loose, and he might be a fear-profiteer, but he does have a lot of viewers. If he starts telling them to hoard food, that could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Yes indeed. It wouldnt take much to cause a panic inspriring shortage if people went panic buying in a large city. Fortunately only a small fraction of people believe in what Glenn Beck believes in to take his advice. Disruptions should be unnoticeable by the largely clueless public until its too late.... But people insist on wearing blinders.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', '
')And why would anyone give any credence to anything Glenn Beck might have to say?

Self-preservation?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '
')Not going to argue with any of that stuff because I'm too lazy, but let's fast forward and ask how do feel about be played for a fool by the GOP and the Tea Party? They are backpedling as hard as they can from what they said during the campaign.

Beck is on the record saying the Republicans have one last chance to prove themselves or else find themselves out of a job like the Whigs before them. To where the tea party vote will go is hard to say but its not going to progressive politicians for sure.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')Its also a "shot across the bow" to any international bankers that might be tempted to use their US Bond reserves as a weapon against the US economy, essentially saying, yep, you can try; but the FED *will* buy them even if no one else will. ie, if you try to dump a trillion in US bonds, we'll print a piece of paper with 12 zeros on it and give it to you. At that point, you can either try to buy something overseas with it... or you can.. BUY AMERICAN!

I agree with this entirely.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '
')Glenn Beck will reveal "The Puppetmasters" on Monday. I'm guessing it's not going to be about the Republican Koch, Scaife, Cheneys, Bushes, or Coors. No I'm guessing Glenn will be talking about Jews, Jews, Jews.

There is No chance of that. He regards Israel as a strategic ally. Its about George Soros. That would be abundantly clear is you watched any epsiode recently. Spooky dude anyone?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanda', '
')Someone tell me the downside of keeping a month of food in your home in case of emergencies?

Precisely.

So there is good reason for concern and some strategic stockpiling may be extremely helpful and their could be virtually no more time to fool around. His show wasnt showing the currency dropping to zero, he was thinking 20 percent, so lets not get too carried away, painful but workable changes. Even if his timing is off it stills a good idea to buy staples in bulk for food security. The people opposed to it are willfully closing their mind or making up their mind from third party sources, its never to late to "do your own homework".
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 00:16:06

You 'got it'. :)
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 00:16:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')heir could be virtually no more time to fool around.


Can you clarify? 8O
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby careinke » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 00:23:45

I've never actually watched a Glenn Beck show. Thanks for the U Tube links.

He is pretty good at making a complex issue easier to understand and rather entertaining. I expected him to be some sort of raving maniac like Cramer, but he is way less emotional than Cramer. Are the chalkboards a permanent part of the set?

In any event, he has a huge audience, and they vote! The Dims should take a lesson.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby zoidberg » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 00:30:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')heir could be virtually no more time to fool around.


Can you clarify? 8O

I only meant to refer to the hypothetical 15 day scenario that Beck illustrated. I would be ill advised to predict any kind of scenario, but my personal bias is towards a single global currency arising from the ashes of all other currencies which will be devalued in turn until people will overwhelmingly support a single currency for stability. So I'm not really worried about a serious, sustained hyperinflationary period. The US will have company in other economies starting over, and really many advantages countries like say Greece would be hard pressed to match. So, Short term bad, medium term stagnant, long term growth. But this particular thread was concerned with the short term and that could have the bottom drop out over a very short period, and Beck's China buying strike scenario could happen for other reasons.

And to put numbers to that scenario I would say it would be played out in a steadily rising scenario going over many months, perhaps a year.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 00:46:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')heir could be virtually no more time to fool around.


Can you clarify? 8O


Fast crash starting 11/14/2010

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')only meant to refer to the hypothetical 15 day scenario that Beck illustrated. I would be ill advised to predict any kind of scenario, but my personal bias is towards a single global currency arising from the ashes of all other currencies which will be devalued in turn until people will overwhelmingly support a single currency for stability. So


Webbot say's they will fail in a matter of day's or Months @ the most.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby zoidberg » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 14:05:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')heir could be virtually no more time to fool around.


Can you clarify? 8O


Fast crash starting 11/14/2010

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')only meant to refer to the hypothetical 15 day scenario that Beck illustrated. I would be ill advised to predict any kind of scenario, but my personal bias is towards a single global currency arising from the ashes of all other currencies which will be devalued in turn until people will overwhelmingly support a single currency for stability. So


Webbot say's they will fail in a matter of day's or Months @ the most.

Web bots results mean pretty much nothing - they only measure what people are talking about and how much. The question is, do you believe in the majority's idea being always right? I most certainly do not. The majority of people talking on the internet are completely clueless. The bancor(a name for floated for a hypothetical global currency) wont arise immediately after a US dollar collapse, even if its done in 1 day.

I saw you mention that date before. Care to clarify it? Google results are inconclusive.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby deMolay » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 14:30:30

Quote Tanada. $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ove Glenn? Hate Glenn?

WHO CARES?

Someone tell me the downside of keeping a month of food in your home in case of emergencies? I lost over half of my income two years ago and having food on my shelves helped immensely in being able to pay my bills and stay financially solvent from June 2008 to October 2010. It was good enough to let me eat from my emergency month one day a week and save that much in groceries. That food ran out last month, but my circumstances have changed and I am past the bottleneck.

I want to replace that cushion as soon as I can, hopefully over the next few months I will manage to do so.

So again I ask, what is the downside to stocking your cupboard? Growing up we always had 4 to 6 months of food because we raised our own and canned or froze food as it matured.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Oakley » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 16:52:27

All markets have a cyclical component. These can be identified and used as a basis for rough predictions of price movements.

Gold and silver have been moving generally up since late 2001. Interest rates have been moving generally down since 1981; for example the 10 year US treasury yield in Oct, 1981 peaked at 15.7% and is now around 2.5%. Since bond values have an inverse relationship to interest rates, bond values have been generally improving for the last 30 years.

My own investment strategy since late 2001 has to be invested in gold and silver and related mining shares. I will be exiting those investments late this year or very early in 2011 depending on the market action between now and then. I expect gold to reach $1,750 between now and very early 2011, and then reverse directions.

I will be taking my significant profits and betting on interest rates moving up and bond prices moving down. One vehicle for doing this is an Inverse Government Long Bond Fund, which makes money as bonds go down in value and as interest rates rise. I expect the yield on the 10 year US treasury to go above 8% by mid 2013. For example, this could make one of these funds RYJUX (Rydex Inverse Gov Long Bond Fund) move from under $13 per unit to over $50 during that 2 1/2 year time frame.

Here is an article to ponder which mentions the short government bonds strategy:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/englund/englund58.1.html
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 17:21:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')Personally, I think this whole, "get the bankers" thing is dumb. We get to relax in a state of luxury unmatched through human history, due in no small part to the magic they do with currency.

The question is, for how long?
And second question, what then?
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Lore » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 18:09:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')Personally, I think this whole, "get the bankers" thing is dumb. We get to relax in a state of luxury unmatched through human history, due in no small part to the magic they do with currency.

The question is, for how long?
And second question, what then?


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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Revi » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 18:14:19

I'm not a big fan of Glenn Beck, but stockpiling food might not be such a bad idea. It might not be a bad idea to get a little cash from the ATM before they conk out as well.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Lore » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 18:19:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I')'m not a big fan of Glenn Beck, but stockpiling food might not be such a bad idea. It might not be a bad idea to get a little cash from the ATM before they conk out as well.


Turn the cash into hard assets as soon as you can. Preferably those things that will retain their value no matter what.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Revi » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 18:45:48

I'm working on that. I just cut a bunch of wood and am getting four cords of tree length delivered before winter sets in. Better to have something tangible. Even if we don't have a disaster it is an inflation hedge.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby Lore » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 18:51:49

Remember in the future, five 22LR cartridges will be worth one dead squirrel for your daily soup.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 19:08:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zoidberg', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrestonSturges', '
')Glenn Beck will reveal "The Puppetmasters" on Monday. I'm guessing it's not going to be about the Republican Koch, Scaife, Cheneys, Bushes, or Coors. No I'm guessing Glenn will be talking about Jews, Jews, Jews.

There is No chance of that. He regards Israel as a strategic ally. Its about George Soros. That would be abundantly clear is you watched any epsiode recently. Spooky dude anyone?

Yes George Soros the Jew international banker.

Does anyone, anyone, believe that the worlds problems go back to one Holocaust survivor and not the people that have been bankrolling the Tea Party?

This is right out of Main Kampf about the international Jew bankers caused WW1 etc etc. The same themes can be found on any Holocaust denial site where they talk about poor innocent peace loving Adolph Hitler.
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 19:32:53

Beck attracts LaRouchies with their Obama/Hitler posters. You might want to check out the LaRouche sites and see how much this notorious cult leader seems have influenced the GOP and inspired Beck

http://laroucheplanet.info/pmwiki/pmwik ... Ideologies
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Re: Glenn Beck warns of US bond crisis, says to stockpile fo

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Mon 08 Nov 2010, 19:44:57

Oh wait, it gets even better ! The convergence of LaRouche, StormFront.org, and Beck - hating on George Soros! Woot!


http://www.stormfront.org/forum/t513204/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')our enemy George Soros
http://www.larouchepub.com/eiw/publi...64-79_3526.pdf
LaRouche Action Committee report.
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